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Inflation and Its Impact

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From Inflation to More Inflation, Disinflation and Low Inflation

By Allan H. Meltzer

The Allan H. Meltzer University Professor of
Political Economy, Carnegie Mellon University and
Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute

Keynote Address, Conference on Price Stability
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Thursday, November 3, 2005

From Inflation to Disinflation and Low Inflation
By Allan H. Meltzer

Volume 2 of A History of the Federal Reserve covers mainly the years of inflation and disinflation, followed by a return to what is now regarded as relatively low inflation. It treats four questions: Why did inflation start? Why did it continue for 15 or more years, from 1965 to about 1982? Why did it end? Why did it not return? In this paper, I give an overview of the material that I consider in much greater detail in my book. As we look back to the 1950s and 1960s from the early 21st century, two of the many changes in the Federal Reserve System affecting inflation deserve comment. First, in the 1950s the goal was price stability, zero reported inflation, not inflation of about two percent. The 1959-60 disinflation brought reported cpi inflation, measured as a 12-month moving average, to less than 1 percent from March through August 1959. This measure again was below 1 percent through most of 1961, and it did not reach 2 percent until early 1966. Properly measured and adjusted for biases in the price index, the true price level probably declined modestly during this period. This period of deflation was also a period of sustained economic growth. It, and several periods of deflation discussed in volume 1 of A History of the Federal Reserve, show no evidence of the liquidity trap that absorbed much recent attention in Japan and here. A second major change is the role of economists and economic research at the Board and in

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