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Invest in Foreign Countries

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Submitted By Deter
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INTRODUCTION
I am a French investor which sells mobile phone, I have a shop in Grasse. I plan to invest in foreign market and particularly in US. The United States is the world’s largest economy in the world with a GDP over than 15 million USD and a consumer market of more than 310 million people. The stability of the country offers a well opportunity for foreign investors.
Obviously there are several risks for an internationalization that may be avoid or reduce in order to ensure my success.

PESTEL
POLITIC: US have a political stability. The country has an open market politic which promotes exchange with foreign countries. Moreover they apply an unconventional monetary policy.
LEGAL: The US has one of the lowest tariff barriers, around 3%.
An agreement is still negotiating between US and UE, which aim to facilitate trade between them. It’s the NAFTA
Moreover, the US is member of the OECD, this significate that each country which is member of this agreement have facilities to access to the country
Then, The US wanted the products conform to their standards

ECONOMIC: As I said previously, the US is the world largest economy and the economy is still growing with growth in demand. The currency is the US Dollard There are different taxes in the country, they depend of the state. The interest rate is 0.25% Todays the inflation is negative, -0.10%, the forecast for the end of the year are + 0.05%, this is due to the decline in gazoline prices
Unemployment rates are very low, they decrease to 5.5% in february.
Corporate taxes stand at 40%

OPPORTUNITIES & EVALUATION

To assist my analysis, I apply a macro economic performance data of US.
According to the spot rate If I borrow 1 000 000€ and I invest them in US, I will have $1 049 650. According to the interest rate, I will have $1 052 274 in one year. And thanks to a forward contract I will have around €1 004 366.
Instead of, if I chose to invest in France, I will have €1 000 500 depending on the French interest rate.
The return after one year is more interesting if I invest in US.

BALANCE OF PAYMENT

The balance of payment refers to a statistical record of France’s transactions with USA for the 3 last years.
So, a negative balance of payment significate the importation exceeds exportation. The demand for currency to make payments from abroad will be greater than the supply of this currency to make payments to the country. In this case, the national currency tends to depreciate.
Conversely, when the balance of payment is positive, the exports are superior to imports and the currency tends to appreciate.

In this study, France have a positive balance of payment with US in 2014, so the € tends to appreciate. But, the previous years the balance was negative. And with the rest of the world France have a negative balance.

POTENTIAL RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINNESS

Today, Changes in exchange rates have an influence on companies’ operation and profitability. Indeed exchange rate volatility affects businesses.
There are 3 types of risks cause by the currency volatility.
CURRENCY RISK is caused by the effect of unexpected currency fluctuation on a company’s future cash flows and market value. Unanticipated exchange rate changes can greatly affect a company’s competitive position. When you have overseas assets you can face to translation risks. Like currency risks, if the euro depreciates against the Dollar, I will gain money. And if currency appreciates, transactions will loss when I get back my money in home currency.

The third risk is transaction exposure, It is the risk that the currency exchange rates will change after the company has already entered into financial obligations.

COUNTRY RISK
Country risks concern The politic, the economy and the finance of the country. These risks are low in US.

RISK MANAGEMENT

To manage the exchange rate risk inherent in multinational firms’ operations, a firm needs to determine the specific type of current risk exposure, the hedging strategy and the available instruments to deal with these currency risks.

SPOT RATE: The price of a foreign currency that is the current rate at which a currency is trading. It reflects what one currency is worth in terms of another currency within two business days from the trade date, which is the normal settlement period for a spot transaction.

In contrast the forward rate is the rate at which a trader agrees to exchange one currency for another at a set future date.

HEDGING CURRENCY RISK WITH A FORWARD CONTRACT

For example , we are the 1st February 2014 , an importer of phone based in France orders mobile phones in the US. The seller sent him an invoice of 150 000 USD , payable on 1 February 2015. If the importer does not take care , he will have to pay about € 131,579 . Whereas if he had realized a forward contract, the operation would cost him € 110,294
However, if the USD had taken value compared to the euro, the importer will can cancel his forward contract and buy the dollars at his prize in 2015. Obviously, the importer will lose the price of the bond.

CROSS CULTURAL RISK
The best way to avoid cross cultural risks are to employ US employee which already know the US culture

Weak partner: Be sure before chose the partner
Entry time: Evaluate the entry issues

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