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Market Timing - Myth or Reality?

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Submitted By jaykissel
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The importance of investment management in financial markets has sky-rocketed over the past two decades worldwide. As of September 2008, more than 69,000 mutual funds existed worldwide, which corresponds to $19 trillion of total net assets under management. As a result of this trend, performance of portfolio managers has become an increasingly important issue among financial analysts in order to determine whether professional managers add value to the portfolios they manage or merely create excessive transaction costs through active management. Stock selection and market timing are the two basic abilities that drive manager performance. The focus of this report is on market timing as it examines if an investment strategy that changes allocations in response to economic conditions is better than a traditional buy and hold strategy.

The analysis utilizes daily return data covering the period from January 1990 to March 2010 with the test portfolio consisting of two risky assets (the total return on the S&P500 and NASDAQ) and a risk-free asset (the return on the 10-year government bond). The predictive instruments include changes in the level and shape of the term structure of interest rates and the market’s implied volatility, given current short-term rates as suggested by the level of 1-year government bond rates.

A one-factor regression model is employed to test the hypothesis; the factor being the excess return of the portfolio on the market – a measure of of the portfolio manager’s timing ability. The underlying basis is that if a manager increases (decreases) the portfolio's market exposure prior to a market increase (decrease) then the portfolio's return will be a convex function of the market's return, and will be positive. The regression results exhibit a solid positive value for the market timing coefficient, suggesting significant

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