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Mexico Economy

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Evolución del Desempleo del 2006 a la fecha

En el sexenio de Felipe Calderon 2006 a 2012, el 58% de los empleos se generan en la economía informal, sin recursos de los empresarios ni del gobierno mexicano.
A. Breve balance sobre desempleo y empleo informal en México. 2006 a 2012.

En contraste con las cifras oficiales de desocupación, las cifras elaboradas con una metodología acorde a la OIT sobre desempleo y empleo informal son las siguientes:

Durante todo el periodo descrito existe una diferencia de al menos diez puntos porcentuales entre ambas cantidades. Como ejemplo, mientras la desocupación llega a su punto más alto durante el tercer trimestre de 2009 con 6.2%, para el mismo periodo el desempleo total es del 16.0%. Análogamente, la tasa de desocupación en el cuarto trimestre de 2010 reportaba apenas un 5.3% mientras la tasa de desempleo llegaba a su nivel más alto con 16.4%, cifra que refleja la situación de deterioro en el mercado laboral durante ese año no sólo por el nivel en términos absolutos, sino además considerando que el cuarto trimestre es siempre el que debería reportar menores niveles de desempleo debido a que en él se encuentra la temporada de fin de año y con ello el incremento generalizado de la actividad económica. Aun con ello, el cuarto trimestre de 2010 llegó a un nivel de desempleo que afectó a una sexta parte de la población que se encontraba disponible para trabajar y sin embargo no conseguía empleo.

Pero el aspecto más importante de esta forma de medir el desempleo no es solamente la obtención de las tasas, sino de las cifras absolutas de la población desempleada como podemos ver en la siguiente Gráfica 2.

Al tercer trimestre de 2012 en México había una población de 8.7 millones de personas desempleadas, lo cual contrasta fuertemente con los 2.6 millones de desocupados que reporta el INEGI.La otra cara del desempleo y los bajos salarios (pueden consultarse los otros Reportes de Investigación del CAM sobre el poder adquisitivo del salario) es el empleo informal. Éste se ha mantenido durante todo el sexenio en niveles altos, oscilando entre el 53.5% y el 55.8% como se puede observar en la Gráfica 3. Ante un escenario como el de México, en donde la Industria sólo es capaz de absorber a una proporción relativamente baja de trabajadores, y con las remuneraciones y condiciones laborales que ofrece, la gente prefiere el camino de la informalidad, que le permite ingresos de la misma magnitud pero sin tener que someterse a las restricciones del trabajo formal, pero igualmente precario

Al tercer trimestre de 2012, el porcentaje de la población ocupada que se encontraba empleada informalmente fue del 54.5%. En general, durante el presente sexenio el empleo informal ha constituido más de la mitad de la población ocupada. Aún el valor más bajo de esta tasa, el 53.5% en el cuarto trimestre de 2008 y 2010, son valores que muestran claramente cómo en nuestro país, el panorama dominante en el empleo es el de la informalidad. Estas cifras contrastan con las ya de por sí altas tasas que el INEGI reporta sobre la población ocupada en el subsector informal de los hogares. Sin embargo, las cifras del INEGI excluyen a los ocupados en los “negocios no constituidos en sociedad”, que también forman parte del empleo informal, por lo que éstos deben ser contados. Con lo anterior se hace nuevamente necesario mostrar también las cifras absolutas de la población empleada informalmente (ver Gráfica 4). La población ocupada en los negocios no constituidos en sociedad es aproximadamente de la misma magnitud que la población ocupada en el subsector informal de los hogares, por ello cuando el gobierno informa utilizando las series de INEGI que los omiten, oculta el 50% de los niveles de empleo informal. Si los incluimos, la cantidad de población empleada informalmente queda de la siguiente forma:

B. Un Mapeo de la ruta del Desempleo en México.
A continuación, en la Tabla 3 mostramos el seguimiento, estado por estado, de los niveles de desempleo en México con base en la metodología desarrollada por el Centro de Análisis Multidisciplinario y acorde a la OIT.

En términos nominales, las personas desempleadas en el país aumentaron de 2 millones 496 mil personas en el 2012 a 2 millones 539 mil en el 2013. Es decir, el mercado laboral empeoró en el primer año del gobierno de Enrique Peña Nieto.
Si se toma en cuenta el número de desocupados, México está en los primeros lugares con mayor desempleo en la lista de la OCDE, sólo superado por Estados Unidos con 11 millones 460 mil personas; España que tuvo al cierre del 2013 unos 5 millones 995 mil desempleados; Francia, con 3 millones 185 mil; Italia con 3 millones 124 mil; y Japón con 2 millones 651 mil personas en paro… Enseguida está México.

Sin embargo, la tasa de desempleo se ubicó en 4.9% en el 2013, que significa, el tercer nivel más bajo de desocupación entre los países integrantes del organismo internacional Sin embargo, la tasa de desempleo se ubicó en 4.9% en el 2013, que significa, el tercer nivel más bajo de desocupación entre los países integrantes del organismo internacional
Algunos de los temas estructurales que afectan la evolución reciente del desempleo son los siguientes
Inflación con el consecuente aumento de los costos de producción y los, costos salariales.
- Recesión económica afectando la demanda agregada
- Políticas económicas erradas.
- Aplicación de ciertas normas laborales. Inflexibilidad laboral
- Crisis política , económica o social, poca racionalización del gasto público
- Pesimismo empresarial ante recesiones de la economía continuadas
- Contrabando, apertura, incertidumbre, etc.
Estructurales
- Aumento de la población económicamente activa
-Las transiciones demográficas, producto de aumento en tasas de natalidad, tasa de migración, tasa de fecundidad, unidas a otros factores que obligan a que cada día un mayor número de personas no integrantes de la PEA entran a presionar el mercado de trabajo. * Cambios en las estructuras de la demanda laboral
El empleador se ve forzado a exigir mano de obra mejor calificada y mucho más polivalente para hacerle frente con tecnología más moderna, al problema de la competencia. * Crisis en los sectores económicos: Ej. La crisis del sector energético en varios países del mundo ocasionó grandes crisis en los demás sectores de la economía dependientes en gran medida de las fuentes de energía provenientes del petróleo. * Desequilibrio entre la Oferta agregada y la demanda agregada. Cuando la producción potencial de bienes y servicios es superior a la demanda de los mismos, las empresas se ven obligadas a parar su producción y no puede generar los suficientes empleos para los que quieren y están dispuestos a laborar. * * Las causas del desempleo son principalmente, la inestabilidad política y económica de nuestro país que causas grandes estragos en la población, la falta de inversiones en industrias que generen empleos a la sociedad, la crisis por la que atravesamos es uno de los factores principales que generan despidos masivos del personal, debido a la falta de recursos para laborar y continuar pagando los salarios a los empleados; así como la mala planeación financiera y estratégica, fuga de capitales hacia otros países, cierre de empresas generadoras de empleos, etc.

- La explosión demográfica, es otro factor importante en este fenómeno, que ocasiona que los números de personas que requieren trabajo sean muchísimo mayores a las oportunidades y vacantes que hay disponibles, también la inflación, falta de preparación y experiencia son puntos causas importantes de este problema, debido a que cada vez hay mayor deserción en las escuelas lo que a su vez genera que las personas no cuenten con la preparación y conocimientos requeridos por las empresas, industrias, etc. para calificar a los puestos que ofrecen.

Otro de los factores que marcan el aumento de las tasas de desempleo en México es el alto grado de corrupción que se tiene en el país, que genera un mal uso del poder para así conseguir beneficios propios, lo que acarrea como consecuencia que existan delitos tales como robos financieros importantes, que bien podrían destinarse a la generación de empleos, mas sin embargo, usualmente se utilizan para negocios ilícitos.

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