...combined with ongoing concerns about deflation risks, has made comparisons with Japan’s so-called “lost decades” Top of Mind. We ask three experts whether the Euro area is set to repeat Japan’s prolonged period of stagnation and deflation: former BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa (unclear, but Euro area recovery requires addressing the underlying problem of economic integration and not its symptom, deflation), GS Chief European Economist Huw Pill (low growth and even some deflation similar to Japan, in terms of outcome if not in terms of causes, are likely in the short term, but – also akin to Japan – a deflationary spiral is not), and LSE Professor Paul De Grauwe (there is a real risk of this outcome or worse unless policies change). We conclude that Euro area economies and assets could escape Japan’s fate but warn that Euro area stagnation would have a greater impact on the global economy than did Japan’s. Inside Interview with Masaaki Shirakawa Former Governor of the Bank of Japan 4 Headed for Japanese-style deflation? Silvia Ardagna, GS Rates Strategy 6 Interview with Huw Pill GS Chief European Economist 8 Euro area stagnation and its discontents Jose Ursua, GS Global Economics Research 10 Interview with Paul De Grauwe Professor, London School of Economics 14 European equities: a different story Sharon Bell, GS Portfolio Strategy 16 A look back at Japan’s deflation drivers Naohiko Baba, GS Japan Economics 18 Source:...
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...uncertainty surrounding the eurozone sovereign debt situation Growth has slowed throughout the year, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its 2011 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economic growth forecast for Western economies from 2.5% to 1.6% Developed economies – with the US a major exception - are engaged in austerity measures while the emerging world is looking to dampen its much stronger growth to stave off any threat of inflation Any improvement next year rests largely on the eurozone finding an appropriate solution to its problems Against this background, many investors have fled to what they saw as safe havens, forcing gold prices to record highs and government bonds yields to generational lows Short-termism is rife in such volatile markets, creating opportunities in some asset classes for investors who can take a longer-term view Equities currently look to offer the best value, with many corporates in solid financial shape after applying their own austerity measures amid the credit crunch. Strong balance sheets are allowing ongoing dividend growth Share valuations remain low, reflecting the muted economic outlook in the West. This ignores two key factors: that many Western companies have growing Eastern earnings exposure, and the potential for emerging market equities to benefit from the region’s stronger macro outlook Core Western government bonds represent poor value, with short-term safe haven investing forcing yields down. In some instances, this asset class currently...
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...International Monetary Fund (IMF), January 2015 Edition, the global economic growth is forecast at 3.5% and 3.7%, for 2015 and 2016 respectively. The forecasts were reviewed downward by 0.3% The IMF forecasts a global economic growth of 3.5% and 3.7% for 2015 and 2016 respectively. relative to the October 2014 WEO. The revisions reflect a reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the Euro-area, and Japan as well as the weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States (U.S.) is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised upward. The IMF added that the global growth will receive a boost from the lower oil prices. However, this boost is projected to be more than offset by the negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies. The U.S. is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2015 and slow down to 3.3% in 2016, supported by domestic demand due to lower oil prices, more moderate fiscal adjustment, and The U.S. is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2015 and slow down to 3.3% in 2016. continued support from an accommodative monetary policy stance, despite the projected gradual increase in interest rates. The Euro-area is forecast to grow by 1.2% and 1.4% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. The growth would be driven by lower oil prices, further monetary policy easing, a more neutral fiscal policy stance...
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... TIPS U.S. Aggregate U.S. Short Duration Gov’t/Credit U.S. Long Duration Gov’t/Credit U.S. Investment Grade Corporate U.S. Long Corporate U.S. High Yield U.S. Leveraged Loan World Government Bond (local) World ex-U.S. Government Bond (local) World ex-U.S. Government Bond Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Emerging Market Local Currency Sovereign Debt Emerging Market Corporate Debt U.S. Municipal U.S. Large Cap U.S. Large Cap EPS Growth U.S. Large Cap Dividend Yield U.S. Large Cap P/E Return Impact U.S. Mid Cap U.S. Small Cap U.S. Large Cap Value U.S. Large Cap Growth Europe ex-U.K. Large Cap (local) Japan Large Cap (local) U.K. Large Cap (local) EAFE Equity (local) EAFE Equity Emerging Market Equity Asia ex-Japan Equity Global Equity U.S. Private Equity5,6 U.S. Direct Real Estate (unlevered)5,6 U.S. Value Added Real Estate (unlevered)5,6 European Real Estate (unlevered, local)5,6 U.S. REITs Global Infrastructure5,6 Hedge Fund—Diversified5,6 Hedge Fund—Event Driven5,6 Hedge Fund—Long Bias5,6 Hedge Fund—Relative Value5,6 Hedge Fund—Macro5,6 Commodities (spot)5 Gold (spot) as of october 31, 2011 rationale 3.25 High unemployment and deleveraging of the public and private sectors to keep inflation low overall, while aggressive reflationary central bank policy and rising import prices risk higher inflation over the medium to longer term. 2.75 Strong growth in the emerging economies should drive commodity prices higher, causing headline...
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...Summary: International Financial Markets (master blok 1) Book: Financial Markets and Institutions (a European perspective) – Haan et al. Author: Kim Cornelissen Chapter 1: Functions of the Financial System 1.1. Functions of a financial system The financial system Figure 1.1; page 5 – Working of the financial system Financial system: includes all financial intermediaries and financial markets, and their relations with respect to the flow of funds to and from households, governments, business firms, and foreigners, as well as the financial infrastructure. Main task is to channel funds from sectors that have a surplus to sectors that have a shortage of funds. Financial infrastructure: the set of institutions that enables effective operation of financial intermediaries and financial markets, including such elements as payment systems, credit information bureaus and collateral registries. * Direct finance: occurs if a sector in need of funds borrows from another sector via a financial market. Financial market: is a market where participants issue and trade securities. * Indirect finance: a financial intermediary obtains funds from savers and uses these savings to make loans to a sector in need of finance. financial intermediaries: coalitions of agents that combine to provide financial services, such as banks, insurance companies, finance companies, mutual funds, pension funds etc. Bank-based system: indirect finance is then the main route for moving funds...
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...Appendix * Exchange overview……………………………page 4. * Regulator……………………………………...page 4-5. * Listing and Trading Rules….............................page 6-8. * Improvements………………………………...page 8-9. * Listings…………………….............................page 10-11. * Performance………………………………….page 12-13. * Sectorial Analysis……………………………page 13-14. * Valuation…………………………………….page 14. * Bonds………………………………………..page 14-16. * Sukuk………………………………………..page 16-17. * Mutual funds………………………………...page 17-19. * Initial Public Offerings……………………...page 19-20. * SWOT Analysis……………………………..page 20-21. * Future Prospects……………….....................page 21-22. * Conclusion………………………………….page 23. * References………………………………….page 24. I. Exchange Overview: In mid 1990s, stocks were traded through some unlicensed and unspecialized offices acting as intermediaries. This resulted in lack of transparency, and unfairness of stock pricing. The pressing need for a regulated and organized stock market that guarantee the protection of investors' interests by adopting modern mechanism for settling stocks' prices according to demand and supply led to the issue of the Emiri Decree No. 14 of 1995, founding the Doha Securities Market (DSM). Two years after the Emiri Decree Issuance, Doha Securities Market commenced its operations in May 26, 1997 with 17 companies and approximately 6 billion QR in market capitalization. Today, the Doha Securities Market (DSM) is known...
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... Bachelorarbeit von Sebastian Stollhof 28.02.2013 Effects of The European Debt Crisis on the German Real Estate Market Autor: Sebastian Stollhof An der Bergleite 3 67806 Rockenhausen Erstprüfer: Prof. Dr. Paschedag HOCHSCHULE ASCHAFFENBURG FAKULTÄT WIRTSCHAFT UND RECHT WÜRZBURGER STRASSE 45 D-63743 ASCHAFFENBURG Table of Content TABLE OF EXHIBITS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 1 EMERGENCE OF THE DEBT CRISIS 1.1 Macroeconomic problems 1.1.1 The imbalance of public authorities 1.1.2 Strongly diverging current account balances 1.1.3 Strongly diverging price- and wage developments 1.2 Specific problems within the monetary union VIII IX 1 1 1 5 10 12 1.2.1 Interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) 12 1.2.2 Membership within the EMU increases insolvency risk for states 1.2.3 National fiscal policy versus central monetary policy 2 GERMAN HOUSING MARKET – PRICE BUBBLE OR SAFE HAVEN? 2.1 Definition of price bubbles 2.2 Explanatory approaches for real estate bubbles 2.2.1 Macroeconomic factors 2.2.2 Institutional explanatory approaches 2.2.3 Behaviour-based explanatory approaches 15 17 20 20 21 21 21 23 Table of Content – Page VI 2.3 Overview and development of the German housing market 2.4 Analysis of the German residential market regarding a price bubble 2.4.1 Price-to-rent ratio 2.4.2 Employment and income situation 2.4.3 Development of residential real estate transactions 2.4.4 Development of bank lending 2.5 The causes of the price...
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...FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS | QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Investment Directors’ Bulletin Edmund Brandt/Ed Walker December 2014 EQUITY MARKETS BOUNCE STRONGLY IN NOVEMBER, LED BY THE US From early September to mid October the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets indices completed a near 10% correction—the first since mid 2011. However, the recovery since then has been led by developed markets, particularly the US, while emerging markets (particularly when measured in US dollars) have traded broadly sideways with significant country variations. In November, the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Market indices rose 2.9% and 1.1% in local currency terms, respectively. Among developed markets, Japan was the best performing market (up 6.2%). For the first time in seven months, Europe outperformed the US (up 3.7% against 2.6%). Australia was the worst performing developed market, declining 3.5% in local currency terms, suffering as resource prices (notably oil and iron ore) declined precipitously. We will discuss the impacts of the rising US dollar and falling oil prices in some detail below, but suffice to say this backdrop was negative for emerging economies, in aggregate. Generally we try to avoid spending too much time analysing the impacts of currency movements on market returns as investors have differing currency exposures. However, November is a notable exception. The continuing surge in the US dollar and the interaction with commodity prices...
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...BIS/OECD workshop on policy interactions between fiscal policy, monetary policy and government debt management after the financial crisis Basel, 2 December 2011 Monetary and Economic Department May 2012 Papers in this volume were prepared for the joint BIS and OECD workshop on “Policy interaction: fiscal policy, monetary policy and government debt management”, held in Basel on 2 December 2011. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or the central banks represented at the meeting. Individual papers (or excerpts thereof) may be reproduced or translated with the authorisation of the authors concerned. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2012. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1609-0381 (print) ISBN 92-9131-135-9 (print) ISSN 1682 7651 (online) ISBN 92-9197-135-9 (online) Preface The massive expansion of central bank balance sheets to contain the worst financial crisis in living memory raises questions about the theory and practice of monetary policy. The persistence in many advanced countries of large fiscal deficits and the prospect of high public debt/GDP ratios for many years is likely, at some point, to create policy dilemmas not only for central banks but also for public debt managers. Some countries have already had to cope with higher sovereign risk. Worries about both...
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...The Transformation of China from an Emerging Economy to a Global Powerhouse James R. Barth, Gerard Caprio Jr., and Triphon Phumiwasana Abstract Throughout the past three decades of fast growth, China has undergone tremendous structural changes in its economy and financial system. This chapter examines China’s evolving financial landscape so as to assess whether it can catch up with or even drive economic growth. China has achieved remarkable growth over the past quarter of a century despite a relatively inefficient financial system. Just as the public sector around the world has not proved to be an efficient manager of enterprises, it also has not been an efficient manager of banks. A solution that would seem to work in theory would be to grow the private sector’s role in the banking system, using banks that operate on market principles as a way to continually starve inefficient enterprises of credit, while supplying credit to the productive enterprises. Finding a way to make this work in practice will require both finesse and good fortune on a scale commensurate with China’s growing importance in the world economy. Keywords Bank Á Banking sector Á Financial market Á Big Four Á GDP Á Economic growth Á Financial system Á Trade Á Renminbi Á Exchange rate Á India Á Foreign exchange reserve Á Non-performing loan 1 Introduction China has captured the attention of the world with its unprecedented growth for such a big country during the past 30 years. At an average rate of 9...
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...European System of Central Banks − the European Central Bank − the Law on the Bulgarian National Bank − narrow money − М1 plus quasi money − broad money − the International Monetary Fund − Exchange Rate Mechanism II − the Federal Reserve System © The Bulgarian National Bank, 2009 © 2009 by Tsvetan Manchev et al. ISBN 978-954-8579-30-8 Published by the Bulgarian National Bank 1, Knyaz Alexander I Square 1000 Sofia telephone +359 2 9145-750 facsimile +359 2 980 2425, 980 6493 www.bnb.bg 2 International Foreign Exchange Reserves Contents Introduction ......................................................... 11 PART ONE. Chapter 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THE THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS Nature and Function .......................................... 19 Definition ............................................................. 19 Gold as a Foreign Reserve Assets ...................... 20 Reasons to Own and Use Foreign Reserves ...... 23 The Functions of Foreign Reserves ..................... 24 Exchange Rate Policy, Monetary Policy, and Foreign Reserves ......................................... 26 6. Foreign Reserve Adequacy ................................ 31 1. 2. 3. Financial Asset Risk and Return ........................ 36 Financial Assets .................................................. 36 Types of Asset Risk...
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...Mortgage Backed Securities Presented by: Ahmed Saleem M.Shahryar Murad Syeda Afreen Zehra Syed Muhammad Qasim Presented to: Maha Ijaz Economic Overview The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, with a per capita GDP of $49,800. In this market-oriented economy, private individuals and business firms make most of the decisions, and the federal and state governments buy needed goods and services predominantly in the private marketplace. US business firms enjoy greater flexibility than their counterparts in Western Europe and Japan in decisions to expand capital plant, to lay off surplus workers, and to develop new products. At the same time, they face higher barriers to enter their rivals' home markets than foreign firms face entering US markets. US firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially in computers and in medical, aerospace, and military equipment; their advantage has narrowed since the end of World War II. The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households. Since 1996, dividends and capital gains have grown faster than wages or any other category of...
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...Please cite this note as: OECD (2014), “OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: A Post Mortem”, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 23 February 2014. OECD FORECASTS DURING AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A POST MORTEM OECD Economics Department Policy Note no. 23 February 2014 This Policy Note is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. © OECD 2014 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted...
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...January 2010 Working Paper 2010-01 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2010/wp10-01bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch∗ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Abstract During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage-free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro-finance investigations. This article is based on a keynote lecture to the 41st annual conference of the Money, Macro, and Finance Research Group on September 8, 2009. I am indebted to my earlier co-authors, especially Jens Christensen, Frank Diebold, Eric Swanson, and Tao Wu. The views expressed herein are solely the responsibility...
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...Foreign Exchange Risk Management Goldman, Sachs & Co. October 2008 Table of Contents Introduction to the FX Markets I Market Update II FX Hedging III Slide 2 Introduction the FX Markets Statistics FX is the largest / most liquid global market Daily Turnover Bid / Offer Number of securities FX Market 3.2 Trillion 4 bp (0.04%) 150 (40 actively traded) Bond Market 900 Billion 5 bp 2,000,000 Equity Market 400 Billion 15 bp 20,000+ Source: BIS (September, 2007) Slide 3 Market Dynamics Short Term Drivers of the Market Market sentiment Release of new data (economic and political) Equity and bond market performance Positions of market participants Central Bank intervention Options activity Hedging mechanism, and protection from a knockout level are reasons for heavy trading Technical analysis Slide 4 Market Dynamics Long Term Drivers of the Market Supply/demand Current account vs. capital account + reserves “Current account” associated with trade flows “Capital account” associated with investments and speculation “Reserves” associated with central bank activities FX and Interest Rate policies are closely linked Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), e.g. the Economist Magazine’s “Big Mac” index Central Banks Mission is to preserve economic stability, in particular to preserve price stability Interest rates can drive FX markets... “Interest Rate Defense”: Raising interest rates can attract foreign...
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