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Motion Picture Industry

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Submitted By stirms74
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Motion Picture Industry
November 24, 2013
Traci Wells
MTH 410
Marilyn Simon

Motion Picture Industry Creating a major motion picture to release to the masses can be a difficult task for any movie maker. Certain methods can be used to support and reassure the movie makers will have a return on their investments. The most effective method is the use of descriptive statistics, including the average, median, mode, range, and deviation of Opening Weekend Gross Sales (OWGS), Total Gross Sales (TGS), Number of Theatres (NOT), and Weeks in Top 60 (WIT60). Using a sample of 100 movies from 2005 it was found that all four variables were closely tied to determining a movies success. Using the date, the OWGS can help movie makes anticipate how much money a movie will make over its entire time in theatres. While this method isn’t always accurate, using the data from the 100 movies we see that the movie that had the best OWGS (Star Wars: Episode III) also had the most TGS, even though it wasn’t in the most NOT’s nor did it have the most WIT60. However, the NOT’s and WIT60 are also a factor. In the table below we can see the correlation between these factors. Star Wars: Episode III should be considered a high performance outlier due to its substantial TGS over all other movies regardless of the NOT and WIT60. Motion Picture | Opening Gross Sales | Total Gross Sales | Number of Theaters | Weeks in Top 60 | Star Wars: Episode III | 108.44 | 380.18 | 3,663 | 19 | Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire | 102.69 | 287.18 | 3,858 | 13 | War of the Worlds | 77.06 | 234.21 | 3,910 | 19 | Wedding Crashers | 33.90 | 209.22 | 3,131 | 23 | Batman Begins | 48.75 | 205.28 | 3,858 | 18 | Mr. and Mrs. Smith | 50.34 | 186.22 | 3,451 | 21 | Walk the Line | 22.35 | 113.63 | 3,160 | 13 | Flightplan | 24.63 | 89.69 | 3,424 | 21 | Monster-in-Law | 23.11 | 82.89 | 3,424 | 16 |

The same can be said when the 100 movies are used with descriptive statistics. If the Mean, or average of the 4 factors is used we see that though the numbers are vastly lower than the top 10 movies a trend emerges that the movie makers can use as a measurement for each films success. This is accomplished by adding each factor separately from all movies and dividing by the number of movies. OWGS for all movies is 937.43, divided by 100 movies gives the average OWGS of 9.37. The same formula can be used for each factor and is shown in the table below. | Opening Gross Sales | Total Gross Sales | Number of Theaters | Weeks in Top 60 | Mean | 9.37 | 33.04 | 1,277.94 | 8.68 |

The median is the middle score, meaning that from top to bottom of OWGS, 108.44 to .01, the middle value in the entire set of these 100 movies is .39 giving another factor for movie makers to use as a threshold of success. These figures are shown below. | Opening Gross Sales | Total Gross Sales | Number of Theaters | Weeks in Top 60 | Median | 0.39 | 5.85 | 410.00 | 7.00 |

The mode is the number in a data set that occurs most frequently. In the data set provided the OWGS that is seen most frequently is 0.037, giving the movie makers yet another idea of what can be expected from any given movie release. However, in the TGS there are actually several modes in the data set, 56.07, 0.13, 0.11, 0.04, and 0.03. In each instance these numbers are only seen twice in the data set which accounts for the #N/A in the excel spreadsheet attached and the table below. | Opening Gross Sales | Total Gross Sales | Number of Theaters | Weeks in Top 60 | Mode | 0.037 | #N/A | 202 | 1 |

The range is the difference between the highest and lowest values in a data set. In the data set provided the OWGS has a highest value of 108.44 and a lowest value of 0.01 which gives a difference of 108.43 as indicated in the table below. With such vast differences in gross sales, this descriptive statistic can be misleading. | Opening Gross Sales | Total Gross Sales | Number of Theaters | Weeks in Top 60 | Range | 108.43 | 380.15 | 3,905.00 | 26.00 |

Standard Deviation is a much more complicated formula that uses the Mean of the data set and subtracts it from each of the 100 figures in each field. Each figure is then squared, then another mean is found from these figures which is then squared again which gives the Standard Deviation. In this case Standard Deviation is used to predict how profitable the movie can be, the NOT should be used and the possible WIT60 may occur. This is a very affective equation that can be used for any number of investments and scientific studies. The table below shows the Standard Deviation for each of the four factors in the data set. | Opening Gross Sales | Total Gross Sales | Number of Theaters | Weeks in Top 60 | Standard Deviation | 18.874702 | 63.164693 | 1378.6894 | 6.3895116 |

TGS in correlation to each other field varies wildly. This is due to other factors outside of the descriptive statistics and data set given. The type of movie, audience, marketing as well as many other factors can determine the success of any movie. The OWGS can be low and yet a movie can earn as much TGS as a movie with an OWGS that more than doubles it. This can be seen in the table below which also shows that the NOT could help determine the TGS while the WIT60 may not. | Opening Gross Sales | Total Gross Sales | Number of Theaters | Weeks in Top 60 | Cheaper by the Dozen 2 | 15.34 | 80.83 | 3,211 | 8 | The Exorcism of Emily Rose | 30.05 | 75.07 | 3,045 | 9 |

Each descriptive statistic tells its own story and helps movie makes determine various scenario outcomes. However, each movie also tells its own story to the audience, and ultimately it is the reception of that story by the audience that ultimately determines the success of any given movie.

References
Anderson, D.R., Sweeney, D.J., & Williams, T.A. (2012). Essentials of statistics for business and economics (6th ed. revised). South-Western Cengage Learning.

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