In front of you is a hat. Inside of the hat there’s either 5 poker chips, or there’s 5-million, and there’s no way you can certainly know how many chips there are without looking inside. You draw one chip, which reads ‘3’ and return it. What can you conclude? Are there 5 or 5-million chips? If I had to guess, I would guess ‘5.’ Simply put, the odds I draw a ‘3’ from a hat with 5 chips are 1 in 5, the odds with 5 million chips is 1 in 2x10-7. It’s true we can’t know with complete certainty how many chips lay in the hat, but probability offers a charitable and rational answer. This method of investigation is present in Nick Bostrom’s essay: Are You Living In A Computer Simulation? In the essay Bostrom examines this question and reaches a conclusion