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Notes on Equity Valuation

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Submitted By MeiyuHong
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Chapter 18 —— Equity Valuation Models
1. Models to uncover mispriced securities
Fundamental analysts: use information concerning the current and prospective profitability of a company to assess its fair market value
2. Quantitative tools: dividend discount model (DDM)
3. P/E (price-earnings ratio)
4. Free cash flow models

1. Valuation by Comparables
P/E, price-to-book value, price-to-sales value, price/cash flow ratio
Comparative valuations ratios are used to assess the valuation of one firm vs. others in the same industry
Limitations of book value
Liquidation value per share
Replacement cost of its assets – liability

2. Intrinsic Value vs. Market Price * 第一种方法
Investor’s expectation= cash dividends + capital gains/ loss (price appreciation/ depreciation)
Expected (HPR) holding-period return= EP1-P0+E D1P0 = EP1-P0P0+E D1P0
= capital gains yield (expected rate of price appreciation) +expected dividend yield
是你期待从这个投资里得到的

Required rate of return: k 是根据CAMP算出来的
如果k= expected return, 则说明price correctly (market capitalization rate)
如果k< expected return, 则说明overpriced (会想要更多的此股票)
是opportunity cost, 是我投资这个项目应该得到多少钱。

如果expected> required, 则投资( positive alpha)

* 第二种方法
Intrinsic value (V0) of a share of stock to its market price
V0是present value of all cash payments= all dividends + 从卖股票里得到的proceeds, 再discounted
V0=D1+P11+k
然后比较V0和P0, 如果V0>P0,说明这支股票underpriced (positive-alpha stock= required> expected)

3. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
The stock prices are determined ultimately by the cash flows accruing to stockholders, and those are dividends. V0=D11+k+D2(1+k)2+…+DH(1+k)H

The constant growth DDM
V0=D0(1+g)k-g=D1k-g
这里k为
对于preferred stock来说,dividend不增长,所以g=0

Stock Prices and Investment Opportunities
如果一个公司将所有剩余的earnings全部用于pay dividends,

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