...1 EFFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS Andrew W. Lo To appear in L. Blume and S. Durlauf, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, 2007. New York: Palgrave McMillan. The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) maintains that market prices fully reflect all available information. Developed independently by Paul A. Samuelson and Eugene F. Fama in the 1960s, this idea has been applied extensively to theoretical models and empirical studies of financial securities prices, generating considerable controversy as well as fundamental insights into the price-discovery process. The most enduring critique comes from psychologists and behavioural economists who argue that the EMH is based on counterfactual assumptions regarding human behaviour, that is, rationality. Recent advances in evolutionary psychology and the cognitive neurosciences may be able to reconcile the EMH with behavioural anomalies. There is an old joke, widely told among economists, about an economist strolling down the street with a companion. They come upon a $100 bill lying on the ground, and as the companion reaches down to pick it up, the economist says, ‘Don’t bother – if it were a genuine $100 bill, someone would have already picked it up’. This humorous example of economic logic gone awry is a fairly accurate rendition of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), one of the most hotly contested propositions in all the social sciences. It is disarmingly simple to state, has far-reaching consequences...
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...In memory of Amos Tversky Contents Introduction Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I...
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...activities in all walks of life and ultimately help improve quality of life of those subsisting at the lowest levels of our socio-economic ladder. It is time now that political parties of every hue and hype focused their manifestos, programmes and policies on developmental vision and pragmatic approach and action to achieve the goals of social justice. There is no denying that the most effective measure in this direction is the involvement of youth in developmental activities and a harmonious harnessing of their youthful energies and enthusiasm. For this to happen on the ground, we, as an upcoming nation, need to orient ourselves towards development, whether on farms or in factories, on technologies or service sectors, et al. In order to make the best use of resources, both human and natural, all political parties must converge on developmental politics, because without development we cannot hope to engage our youth in constructive and creative activities, nor can we envisage a situation in future when poverty would be a thing of the past. It is true...
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...Transferable Skills Development MGT 495 Instructor: Prof. Dr. Mohammad Majid Mahmood Bagram LECTURE-1 Course Description: • This course on Transferable Skills Development uses a unique three-pronged approach - theory, application, and skill development - to make key concepts relevant to today's students. • The course combines traditional theory with cutting-edge today`s Transferable Skills Development issues & Challenges that focuses on key elements. • Packed with real-world examples, the course illustrates how successful managers deal with challenges, as well as provides students with step-by-step guidelines for effectively handling skills development functions. • Experiential exercises, action learning, individual and group work, role plays, reflective exercises, and self assessment included in this course would help students to immediately apply to their personal and professional lives. Course Objectives: Upon completion of this course, students should be able to: • Develop skills in managing oneself, other people, groups, and ultimately organizations. • Develop rich set of softer interpersonal, influencing, team-building, conflict management, and communications skills. • Understand organizational performance, and career success in modern, dynamic and complex organizations. Transferable Skills Development: Transferable Skills Development is more than getting work done through people. It is developing...
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...UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR Delta Publishing Company 1 Copyright © 2006 by DELTA PUBLISHING COMPANY P.O. Box 5332, Los Alamitos, CA 90721-5332 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 An Introduction to Organizational Behavior CHAPTER 2 Managing People and Organizations CHAPTER 3 Motivation CHAPTER 4 Work-Related Attitudes CHAPTER 5 Organizational Communication and Power CHAPTER 6 Groups and Teams in Organizations CHAPTER 7 Leadership CHAPTER 8 Prosocial Behavior, Cooperation Conflict, and Stress CHAPTER 9 Making Decisions in Organizations CHAPTER 10 Culture, Creativity, and Innovation CHAPTER 11 Designing Effective Organizations CHAPTER 12 Managing Organizational Change and Development GLOSSARY 3 CHAPTER 1 AN INTRODUCTION TO ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR LEARNING OBJECTIVES After reading this chapter you will be able to: • Define organizational behavior. • Trace the historical roots of organizational behavior. • Discuss the emergence of contemporary organizational behavior, including its precursors, the Hawthorne studies, and the human relations movement. • Describe contemporary organizational behavior—its characteristics, concepts, and importance. • Identify and discuss contextual perspectives on organizational behavior. What is an organization? An organization is defined as a collection of people who...
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...UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR Delta Publishing Company 1 Copyright © 2006 by DELTA PUBLISHING COMPANY P.O. Box 5332, Los Alamitos, CA 90721-5332 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 An Introduction to Organizational Behavior CHAPTER 2 Managing People and Organizations CHAPTER 3 Motivation CHAPTER 4 Work-Related Attitudes CHAPTER 5 Organizational Communication and Power CHAPTER 6 Groups and Teams in Organizations CHAPTER 7 Leadership CHAPTER 8 Prosocial Behavior, Cooperation Conflict, and Stress CHAPTER 9 Making Decisions in Organizations CHAPTER 10 Culture, Creativity, and Innovation CHAPTER 11 Designing Effective Organizations CHAPTER 12 Managing Organizational Change and Development GLOSSARY 3 CHAPTER 1 AN INTRODUCTION TO ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR LEARNING OBJECTIVES After reading this chapter you will be able to: • Define organizational behavior. • Trace the historical roots of organizational behavior. • Discuss the emergence of contemporary organizational behavior, including its precursors, the Hawthorne studies, and the human relations movement. • Describe contemporary organizational behavior—its characteristics, concepts, and importance. • Identify and discuss contextual perspectives on organizational behavior. What is an organization? An organization is defined as a collection of people who...
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...Beyond Feelings A Guide to Critical Thinking NINTH EDITION Vincent Ryan Ruggiero Professor Emeritus of Humanities State University of New York, Delhi BEYOND FEELINGS: A GUIDE TO CRITICAL THINKING, NINTH EDITION Published by McGraw-Hill, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Previous editions © 2009, 2007 and 2004. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning. Some ancillaries, including electronic and print components, may not be available to customers outside the United States. This book is printed on acid-free paper. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 DOC/DOC 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ISBN: MHID: 978-0-07-803818-1 0-07-803818-9 Vice President & Editor-in-Chief: Michael Ryan Vice President EDP/Central Publishing Services: Kimberly Meriwether David Editorial Director: Beth Mejia Senior Managing Editor: Meghan Campbell Executive Marketing Manager: Pamela S. Cooper Senior Project Manager: Joyce Watters Buyer: Nicole Baumgartner Design Coordinator: Margarite Reynolds Media Project Manager: Sridevi Palani Compositor: Glyph International Typeface: 10/13 Palatino Printer: R...
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...- THE ZEITGEIST MOVEMENT OBSERVATIONS AND RESPONSES Activist Orientation Guide www.thezeitgeistmovement.com | www.thevenusproject.com PREFACE: The Zeitgeist Movement is the activist arm of The Venus Project, which constitutes the life long work of industrial designer and social engineer, Jacque Fresco. Jacque currently lives in Venus, Florida, working closely with his associate, Roxanne Meadows. Now, let it be understood that Mr. Fresco will be the first to tell you that his perspectives and developments are not entirely his own, but rather uniquely derived from the evolution of scientific inquiry which has persevered since the dawn of antiquity. Simply put, what The Venus Project represents and what The Zeitgeist Movement hence condones, could be summarized as: ‘The application of The Scientific Method for social concern.’ Through the humane application of Science and Technology to social design and decision-making, we have the means to transform our tribalistic, scarcity driven, corruption filled environment into something exceedingly more organized, balanced, humane, sustainable and productive. To do so, we have to understand who we are, where we are, what we have, what we want, and how we are going to obtain our goals. Given the current state of affairs, many of which will be addressed in the first part of this book, the reader should find that we not only need to move in another direction…we have to. The current economic system is falling apart at an accelerating rate...
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...3 Sources of Moral Obligation by Josephson Institute on February 14, 2011 A duty is an obligation to act in a certain way. When the obligation is based on moral and ethical considerations, it is a moral duty. Often we think about moral duties in terms of rules that restrain us, the “don’ts,” as in don’t lie, cheat, or steal. Such rules comprise the so-called negative dimension of moral duty because they tell us what not to do. Since ethics is concerned with the way we ought to be, however, it also includes an affirmative dimension consisting of things we should do — keep promises, judge others fairly, treat people with respect, kindness and compassion. Sources of Moral Obligation Moral obligations can arise from three sources. The first, strangely enough, is law. 1. Law-Based Moral Obligations. Good citizens have a moral as well as a legal obligation to abide by laws; it is part of the assumed social contract of a civilized society. If a law is unjust, however, (such as those that mandated ethnic and religious persecution during the Nazi regime and those that discriminated against a person on the basis of race in South Africa and elsewhere) there may be a moral obligation to disobey it under the specific and demanding doctrine of civil disobedience. Many, but by no means all, of these moral standards of conduct are so fundamental to healthy social relations that they have been codified into laws. For example, most aspects of the moral duty to not endanger or harm others...
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...Word-of-Mouth: Influences on the Choice of Recommendation Sources by K Schoefer 1998 A dissertation presented in part consideration for the degree of M.A. in Corporate Strategy and Governance. Contents Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Literature Review 3 1. Consumer Decision-Making 3 1. The Decision-Making Process 4 1. Problem Recognition 5 2. Information Search 6 3. Evaluation of Alternatives 8 4. Purchase 9 5. Post-Purchase Evaluation 10 2. Individual Influences 12 3. Environmental Influences 15 1. Culture 15 2. Social Class 16 3. Reference Groups 16 2. Word-of-Mouth Communication 20 1. Definition 20 2. Scope and Significance 20 3. Characteristics of WOM 22 4. The Nature of WOM 24 1. Types 24 2. Process 24 3. Conditions 28 4. Motives 29 5. WOM and the Consumer Behaviour...
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...THE EFFECT OF SELF-LEADERSHIP AND LOCUS OF CONTROL ON WORK STRESS AMONGST MANAGERS IN THE FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR By Agnes Akwa Nde Student number: 2009103587 A Dissertation submitted in Accordance with the Requirements for the Award of a MAGISTER COMMERCII Degree In Industrial Psychology Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences The University of the Free State Supervisor: Prof. Ebben Van Zyl Co-Supervisors: Dr Petrus Nel & Dr Estelle Boshoff Bloemfontein, 2015 DECLARATION I declare that this dissertation hereby submitted by me for a Masters of Commerce degree at the University of the Free State is my own independent work and has not been previously been submitted by me at another university/faculty. I furthermore cede copyright of the dissertation in favour of The University of the Free State. .............................................................................. Signature .............................................................................. Date [ii] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A project of this nature could not have been complete without the support of some people. At this juncture, I will like to recognize the assistance of such people who made indispensable contributions towards the realisation of this work. I received much technical support from my supervisor Prof Ebben Van Zyl and cosupervisors Dr Petrus Nel and Dr Estelle Boshoff. I appreciate all the efforts they made in seeing that this study...
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...More Praise for The 8 Dimensions of Leadership "For a fresh outlook on what it takes to be a great leader, read this book. The 8 Dimensions of Leadership is an insightful, practical guide—a leader could spend ten or twenty years learning some of the lessons you'll take away. Don't wait." —Keith Ferrazzi, beslselling author of Never Eat Alone "The 8 Dimensions of Leadership is a treasure trove of practical leadership advice. Built upon a solid research-based foundation, the book is a remarkable collection of proven developmental strategies. Clear and engaging, it is a must-read for those who aim to sharpen their leadership skills and improve their interpersonal effectiveness," —Steven Snyder, founder and Managing Director, Snyder Leadership Group, and former CEO, Net Perceptions Inc. "It is always refreshing to read a research-based book on leadership that presents convincing evidence that the best leaders are not 'single celled' or 'one-trick ponies.' The book guides ad leaders to discovering new behaviors that enable them to go beyond their autopilot approaches and the ultimate ruts that so many leaders dig for themselves." —Jack Zenger, CEO, Zenger Folkman, and coauthor of the bestselling The Extraordinary Leader and The Extraordinary Coach "The quest for leadership is first an inner quest to discover who you are, and one of the best places to begin that quest is with The 8 Dimensions of Leadership. Jeffrey Sugerman, Mark Scullard, and Emma Wiihelm challenge...
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...lifealtering examination of the human psyche that is sure to benefit both introverts and extroverts alike.” —Kirkus Reviews (starred review) “Gentle is powerful … Solitude is socially productive … These important counterintuitive ideas are among the many reasons to take Quiet to a quiet corner and absorb its brilliant, thought-provoking message.” —ROSABETH MOSS KANTER, professor at Harvard Business School, author of Confidence and SuperCorp “An informative, well-researched book on the power of quietness and the 3/929 virtues of having a rich inner life. It dispels the myth that you have to be extroverted to be happy and successful.” —JUDITH ORLOFF, M.D., author of Emotional Freedom “In this engaging and beautifully written book, Susan Cain makes a powerful case for the wisdom of introspection. She also warns us ably about the downside to our culture’s noisiness, including all that it risks drowning out. Above the din, Susan’s own voice remains a compelling presence—thoughtful, generous, calm, and eloquent. Quiet deserves a very large readership.” —CHRISTOPHER LANE, author of Shyness: How Normal Behavior Became a Sickness 4/929 “Susan Cain’s quest to understand introversion, a beautifully wrought journey from the lab bench to the motivational speaker’s hall, offers convincing evidence for valuing substance over style, steak over sizzle, and qualities that are, in America, often derided. This book is brilliant, profound, full of feeling and brimming with insights.” —SHERI FINK...
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...Human Resource Management (MGT501) VU MGT - 501 T his subject/course is designed to teach the basic principles of Human Resource Management (HRM) to diverse audience/students, including those who are studying this as a supporting subject for their bachelor degree program. This course is designed to provide you the foundations of HRM whether you intend to work in HRM or not, most of these elements will affect you at some point in your career. Either you will be working with some organizations or having people working for you, in both cases you will be dealing with people. To be understandable and lively means that we need to communicate you. We start every chapter with learning objectives. The most important thing you will get out of this course are the basic skills required to succeed in today’s environment which are, you must be able to communicate, think creatively, plan effectively and deal with people. Copyright © Virtual University of Pakistan 1 Human Resource Management (MGT501) INTRODUCTION TO HRM After studying this chapter, students should be able to understand the following: Describe HRM? Explain why are we concerned about HRM? Discuss Road-map of HRM VU Lesson 1 LESSON OVERVIEW This chapter introduces the students with the basic concepts of the human resource management (HRM). During the lecture, we will be discussing the three main things, i.e. the introduction to HRM, the importance of HRM, and a brief discussion of the Resource topics...
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...Human Resource Management (MGT501) VU MGT - 501 T his subject/course is designed to teach the basic principles of Human Resource Management (HRM) to diverse audience/students, including those who are studying this as a supporting subject for their bachelor degree program. This course is designed to provide you the foundations of HRM whether you intend to work in HRM or not, most of these elements will affect you at some point in your career. Either you will be working with some organizations or having people working for you, in both cases you will be dealing with people. To be understandable and lively means that we need to communicate you. We start every chapter with learning objectives. The most important thing you will get out of this course are the basic skills required to succeed in today’s environment which are, you must be able to communicate, think creatively, plan effectively and deal with people. Copyright © Virtual University of Pakistan 1 Human Resource Management (MGT501) INTRODUCTION TO HRM After studying this chapter, students should be able to understand the following: Describe HRM? Explain why are we concerned about HRM? Discuss Road-map of HRM VU Lesson 1 LESSON OVERVIEW This chapter introduces the students with the basic concepts of the human resource management (HRM). During the lecture, we will be discussing the three main things, i.e. the introduction to HRM, the importance of HRM, and a brief discussion of the Resource topics...
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