...Formal and Informal, • Qualitative and Quantitative Methods • Causal methods auto projection methods of forecasting. What is forecasting? Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. As a science it uses historical data and projects them into the future using mathematical models. As an art it uses intuition or judgment to predict the future. Why forecast? Done to minimize uncertainty and evaluate risk relating to future events caused by dynamism of the environment within which organizations operate. Such dynamisms includes: a) Changes in legislation b) Stiff competition c) Demographic changes. Forecasting is important for planning and control of functional areas such as; marketing, finance, operations e.t.c.In the public sector, forecasts are used to plan on: Health, Education, Social services e.t.c. Types of forecasts • Demand forecasts – projections of demand for a company’s products or services. • Economic forecasts – predicts inflation rates, money supplies e.t.c • Technological forecasts.- concerned with the rate of technological progress. Forecasting Horizons a) Short – range forecasts: Covers from a few days to 6 months. It concerns issues like purchase forecasts, job scheduling, workforce levels, job assignments, production levels e.t.c. b) Medium range forecasts: Covers usually from 3 months to 2 years. The objective of this is to manage the acquisition of resources so as to achieve the medium term goals e.g. distribution,...
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...Dilemma: 8 Men Out After watching the film 8 Men Out, the ethical dilemma became very clear as to what happened in the 1919 World Series. The ethical dilemma was the decision of whether or not to accept payment from gambling boss’s to intentionally lose 5 games during the World Series. Obviously the amount the 8 players were offered was greater than the salaries they were paid to play all year. If they could each make $10,000 in 5 games just to loose, why not? The ethical decisions the players made affected everyone around them and resulted in a soiled reputation for the players who accepted the terms as well as players who remained true to their contract. The decision to throw 5 of 8 games during the World Series relates very well to business and accounting. This decision by the 8 players illustrates how they value their own integrity. The 1919 Chicago White Sox were said to be the greatest baseball team ever assembled in the history of baseball. The problem was that the team owner, Charles Comisky, was too greedy to pay the players in accordance with their talent over other teams in the league. The players and their decisions could be compared to that of any employee in business or accounting because every individual has a reputation to rely on. The decisions you make could change the rest of your life. I have always been raised to do the best job I can possibly do and the players for the white sox were too. The players were fully aware that what they were doing was wrong, but...
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...needs to partner with Department of the Navy for the mid-west region. The skills Forest City possesses are: long-term vision, experience with large and complex projects, decades of experience of property management and maintenance experience. Obviously physical assets are what appeals to the customer, but the assets will not appeal to anyone without the people to bring the plan together. This is where human resources come into play. The manager will identify the need to hire staff-based on budgeted staffing allowances and on the manager’s approval. For the mid-west region project 60 positions needed to be filled. The manager then places an ad and sometimes uses an employment recruiter or head hunter. The manager must be familiar with the job descriptions and/or requirements for the positions they are attempting to fill. Having the knowledge will not only assist the manager with the criteria,...
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...University of South Australia City West Campus, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia T: +61 8 8302 9097 F: +61 8 8302 0709 kesten.green@unisa.edu.au # words in body 10,053 (requested range was 6,000 to 9,000) ABSTRACT We reviewed the evidence-based literature related to the relative accuracy of alternative methods for forecasting demand. The findings yield conclusions that differ substantially from current practice. For problems where there are insufficient data, where one must rely on judgment. The key with judgment is to impose structure with methods such as surveys of intentions or expectations, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, and simulated interaction. Avoid methods that lack evidence on efficacy such as intuition, unstructured meetings, and focus groups. Given ample data, use quantitative methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-based forecasting, and causal methods. Among causal methods, econometric methods are useful given good theory, and few key variables. Index models are useful for selection problems when there are many variables and much knowledge about the situation. Use structured procedures to incorporate managers’ domain knowledge into forecasts from quantitative methods where the knowledge would otherwise be overlooked, but avoid unstructured revisions. Methods for combining forecasts, including prediction markets and Delphi,...
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...situation. Foreign companies are not required to provide segmental reports. * Management Conservatism: Management determination of segments implies that what is useful to management is useful to investors. FASB’s 5 possible objective for interim reporting: 1. To estimate annual earnings 2. To make projections 3. To identify turning points 4. To evaluate Management Performance 5. To supplement the annual Report. Problems in Interim Reporting * Accounting Problems: * Inventory Problems: There are three types of problems; * Determination of Inventory quantities * Valuation of inventories * Adjustment of valuation * Matching principle: Business operations are not similar throughout the year. Resources are acquired & output may be sold & there are many types of cost which related with these issues. It should defer in an interim period costs if the benefits extend beyond that period. * Extent of disclosure problem: Problems in deciding the quantity disclosure in interim reporting. Problem with determining the material criteria to disclose in interim reporting. * Conceptual Issues: There are toe views, Integral View & Discrete view;...
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...In Twenty-First Century, modern America one can trace the effects of various actions and decisions of past government leaders and ordinary citizens in the shaping of the America we see today. Throughout human society, the conflicts, issues, and divisions among peoples, which one observes at any point in time, are not matters of chance, but are products of history, and forces of human undertaking. Today, American society is faced with a residential, geographic phenomenon among urban and suburban communities that disadvantages African American citizens through the discriminatory denial of residential and economic freedom, a Constitutional promise that is guaranteed to all Americans. Modern America is confronted with a socially and geographically segregated society structured on the hierarchies of race, having the greatest consequences for African American communities, the most segregated racial group in American society. The Great Migration of the early twentieth century was a symbolic beacon of hope for African Americans leaving their homes in the rural South to a new land of promise in the urban North. While this migration created vast amounts of opportunity for African Americans that could have not existed in the Jim Crow-era South, the movements of these people would carry the racial divisions and hostilities of society to the level of a national plight. Northern whites implemented various practices in order to manipulate urban housing markets in the effect of restricting...
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...A PROJECT REPORT ON “PERFORMANCE OF INITIAL PUBLIC OFFER" AT GURUKRUPA INVESTMENTS BARDOLI. SUBMITTED BY KRUNAL.B.PATEL 06 MBA 33 SUBMITTED TO MR.GOVIND DHINAIYA MBA PROGRAMME (YEAR 2006- 2008) SHRIMAD RAJCHANDRA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND COMPUTER APPLICATION DECLARATION I, undersigned Mr.krunal .B. Patel, student of Shrimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management & Computer Application, Bardoli, affiliated to Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat declare that report on “PERFORMANCE OF IPO” is my own work. The research was carried out by me as a part of summer training in the company for being evaluated for the MBA degree. Place: Date: __________ (Patel Krunal .B) (06 MBA 33) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I as the student of management, feel proud on successfully completing the project on “PERFORMANCE OF IPO” at “GURUKRUPA INVESTMENT” of Bardoli. A project of this nature involves the support of many people. I believe that I would be lacking in my duty if I did not express my sincere gratitude to them. I am extremely thankful to Dr. Bankim Patel director, and Mr.Govind Dhinaiya, my project mentor for providing good guidance and other facilities during my training program. I m heartily thankful to Mr. Nitin Prajapati...
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...points Salvatore’s chapter 6: a. Discussion Questions: 1,7, and 15 1. Forecasting for most businesses means gathering historical information and building an estimate or prediction of future events based on the analytical actions of the past. It is important to businesses and other enterprises because it becomes a statistical map for where the organization could go and helps to identify where areas of weakness may be in order to create a new or different pathway to increase performance. There are several types of forecast, qualitative, time series analysis, causal relationship, simulation, and barometric methods. Firms must examine what form of business analytics they need to solve their problems whether it is time data, research data, or trend analysis. 7. Exponential smoothing is the best technique in forecasting as it examines all averages and examines the average of the actual and forecasted values. We have to look at what is required average to determine which smoothing technique is better that will be based on the need of the forecast for the business. Regression Approach would probably be the best to forecast the values of a time series that contains a secular trend as well as a strong seasonal and random variations. 15. It is still useful to pursue forecasting due to the fact that it can provide a directional for time trends or trend analysis that businesses need to learn where their opportunities or threats to the business are. Businesses...
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...Demand Estimation attempts to quantify the link between the level of for a product and the variables which determines it whereas the Demand Forecasting simply attempts to predict the level of sales at some particular future date. 7 stages of Demand Estimation 1. Statement of a Theory or Hypothesis : This usually comes from a mixture of economic Theory and previous empherical studies. 2. Model Specification : This means determining what variables should be included in the demand model and what mathematical form or forms such a relationship should take. 3. Data Collection : Gathering necessary information. a. Cross-sectional data : Provide information on a group opf entities at a given time. b. Time-serie data: Provide information on the entity over time. i. Quantitative: Data that are expressed in nominal in either ordinal or cardinal. ii. Qualitative: Expressed in categories. 4. Estimation of Parameters : This means computing the value of the coefficient of the variables in the model. 5. Checking goodness of fit : Once a model or may be several alternatives models have been estimated, it is necessary to determine how well the model fits the data and to determine whicg model fits best. 6. Hypothesis Testing : Having determined the best model, we want to test the hypothesis stated in the first step. 7. Forecasting : This is the...
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...Case 2 - Baggage Complaints: Descriptive Statistics and Time Series Plots Baggage Complaints: Descriptive Statistics and Time Series Plots Background Anyone who travels by air knows that occasional problems are inevitable. Flights can be delayed or cancelled due to weather conditions, mechanical problems, or labor strikes, and baggage can be lost, delayed, damaged, or pilfered. Given that many airlines are now charging for bags, issues with baggage are particularly annoying. Baggage problems can have a serious impact on customer loyalty, and can be costly to the airlines (airlines often have to deliver bags). Air carriers report flight delays, cancellations, overbookings, late arrivals, baggage complaints, and other operating statistics to the U.S. government, which compiles the data and reports it to the public. The Task Do some airlines do a better job of handling baggage? Compare the baggage complaints for three airlines: American Eagle, Hawaiian, and United. Which airline has the best record? The worst? Are complaints getting better or worse over time? Are there other factors, such as destinations, seasonal effects or the volume of travelers that affect baggage performance? The Data Baggage Complaints.jmp The data set contains monthly observations from 2004 to 2010 for United Airlines, American Eagle, and Hawaiian Airlines. The variables in the data set include: Baggage Scheduled Cancelled Enplaned The total number of passenger complaints for theft of...
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...Under “Western Eyes”: The Personal Odyssey of Huang Fei-Hong in Once upon a Time in China by Tony Williams Rather than being read in exclusively postmodernist terms, Tsui Hark’s series Once upon a Time in China may be understood as a new version of a Hong Kong cinematic discourse involving historical “interflow.” It deals with dispersion, China’s relationship to the outside world, and strategic forms of reintegration designed to strengthen national identity. In Sammo Hung’s Wong Fei Hung Ji Saam (West Territory Mighty Lion/Once upon a Time in China and America, 1997), Master Huang Fei-hong (Jet Li Linjie) travels to the Wild West to visit an American branch of the Po Chi Lam Clinic set up by his student Sol. During the journey, he bangs his head against a rock in a turbulent stream and loses his memory. He is rescued by a friendly tribe of Indians. Moments before we see Huang again, an Indian emerges from a tepee proudly announcing the birth of a child. When Huang recovers, he stumbles around in the Indian camp wearing an Indian costume, and his loose unbraided hair is flowing like an Indian’s. After using his martial arts prowess to defeat a hostile Indian, who ironically mouths racist American platitudes against the outsider—”His clothing is different, his skin color is different, his speech is different”—Huang is adopted into the tribe and given the name “Yellow.” Before this, he attempts to remember events of the recent past. But his vague recollections...
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...Concerning Copyright Restrictions The Copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyright material. Under certain conditions specified in the law, libraries and archives are authorized to furnish a photocopy or other reproduction. One of these specified conditions is that the photocopy or reproduction not be "used for any purposes other than private study, scholarship, or research." If a user makes a request for, or later uses, a photocopy or reproduction for purposes in excess of "fair use," that user may be liable for copyright infringement. xxiII ACKNOWLEDGMENTS write has to pass beneath the critical· eye and flashing red pen of my long-time partner in life and work, Sylvie Hampe. \Vhen-. ever she announces, "This doesn't make sense," I've leamednot to argue, but to rewrite. Over the years she and I have learned how to give and receive criticism and' still remain best friends. Thanks, love. PA R T I MAKING ANALOGS OF REALITY I used to think that the documentary films I was making were real. But as I looked at what I was doing, I saw I was making analogs-I was making models of the situation I was filming. -Bob Young, documentary filmmaker, 118th SMPTE Technical Conference 4 . MAKING DOCUMENTARY FILMS AND REALITY VIDEOS IT TAKES MORE Making a successful documentary film or video requires much more, It starts the camera. You have to have good...
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...HUYNH PHUC HOANG SAMPLE ESSAY IELTS Writing Sample Essay IELTS Writing Some people think that in order to prevent illness and disease, governments should make efforts in reducing environmental pollution and housing problems. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? The prevention of illness and disease is a challenging problem for any community. Although many people may be skeptical about the effectiveness of an investment in improving the environment and providing more housing for the public, I believe that it is a good solution to the issue, as will now be discussed. On the one hand, ameliorating environmental contamination can hinder the spread of disease and illness. Today, people’s health is deteriorating due to the adverse effects of poor air quality, making us more vulnerable to viruses and health problems. A number of urban citizens suffer from lung cancer and throat cancer due to the dangerous level of exhaust emissions from traffic and industrial activities in many big cities such as Beijing and Hanoi. Therefore, improving the environment should be treated as the top priority among other concerns of the government. For example, an outright ban on the use of private vehicles can decrease the amount of harmful fumes released into the atmosphere, contributing to the clean-up of the environment. On the other hand, the provision of more accommodation for the public is also a highly effective measure to reduce health risks....
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...HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Human Resource management in UK perspectives Contents Introduction 3 Literature review and Critical analysis 4 World War I and II 4-6 Training and development 6-7 Total Quality Management (TQM) 7-8 Conclusion 8 References .............................................................................................................................................9 Introduction The purpose of this essay is to consider the work of Audrey Collin in British perspectives compared to the international perspectives. Secondly to identify human resource issue and look at in British point of view. The studies of HRM by Collins provide us a colourful findings and rich competing theoretical outlook. HRM run through all human resource processes such as recruitment, selection, and performance evaluation as well as formal human resource policies, which direct and to some extent hamper the progress of specific practices; and over arching human resource thought, which state the principles that inform an organization's policies and practices. Ideally, these embrace a system that exert a pull on, develops, motivates, and maintain workers who guarantee the effective operation and survival of the business and its component. To be on familiar terms with HRM in context we must think about how these elements of HRM are affected by the internal and external environments of organizations. The internal organizational contextual factors...
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...organization structure long after it has served its purpose, because their power is derived from this structure. The company eventually goes into bankruptcy. A large bank disciplines a "rebellious" manager who is blamed for current control problems, when the underlying cause is centralized procedures that are holding back expansion into new markets. Many younger managers subsequently leave the bank, competition moves in, and profits are still declining. The problems of these companies, like those of many others, are rooted more in past decisions than in present events or outside market dynamics. Historical forces do indeed shape the future growth of organizations. Yet management, in its haste to grow, often overlooks such critical developmental questions as: Where has our organization been? Where is it now? And what do the answers to these questions mean for where we are going? Instead, its gaze is fixed outward toward the environment and the future--as if more precise market projections will provide a new organizational identity. 1 Companies fail to see that many clues to their future success lie within their own organizations and their evolving states of development. Moreover, the inability of management to understand its organization development problems can result in a company becoming "frozen" in its present stage of evolution or,...
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