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[1] Think about an analogy with another model – a map. There are lots of different types of maps to show different features of the real geography in a s[pic] |hvUhvU5?CJOJQJh LCJOJQJh|CJOJQJhP[OJQJmH sH #h Lh L5?CJOJQJmH sH #h Lh|5?CJOJQJmH sH h~o25?CJOJQJimplified but understandable form. The more ‘realistic’ the map, the less use it will be (you wouldn’t be able to unfold it, for one thing!).
[2] Boin A & Lagadec P (2000) Preparing for the Future, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 8, 4, www.patricklagadec.net/fr/pdf/Preparing_the_future.pdf

[3] Some define this probability as the value of this ratio as n tends to infinity
[4] Of course, you may be surprised to learn that this is the wrong answer as the coin could land on its edge if left to land on a hard surface. If you Google ‘coin landing on its edge’ you will find that the chance of this happening is thought to be about 1 in 6000 (but we don’t really know!): so the true probabilities of ‘head’ and ‘tail’ are around 0.4999166 and of‘ edge’ around 0.000166667. How much would you pay for a gamble where you win £0 for ‘tails’ and £10 for ‘heads’ but lose your entire family’s wealth if it lands on the edge? Still £3 - £6?
[5] Listen to his May 2011 podcast about the feeling of risk http://ihrrblog.org/2011/05/27/prof-paul-slovic-the-feeling-of-risk/ where he talks about the research described in the rest of this lecture. Interesting?
[6] “The affect heuristic is a swift, involuntary response to a stimulus that speeds up the time it takes to process information. Researchers have found that if we have pleasant feelings about something, we see the benefits as high and the risks as low, and vice versa. As such, the affect heuristic behaves as a first and fast response mechanism in decision-making” www.beinghuman.org/article/affect-heuristic