...Bankruptcy prediction From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia This article is an orphan, as few or no other articles link to it. Please introduce links to this page from related articles; suggestions may be available. (December 2009) Bankruptcy prediction is the art of predicting bankruptcy and various measures of financial distress of public firms. It is a vast area of finance and accounting research. The importance of the area is due in part to the relevance for creditors and investors in evaluating the likelihood that a firm may go bankrupt. The quantity of research is also a function of the availability of data: for public firms which went bankrupt or did not, numerous accounting ratios that might indicate danger can be calculated, and numerous other potential explanatory variables are also available. Consequently, the area is well-suited for testing of increasingly sophisticated, data-intensive forecasting approaches. Contents [hide] 1 History 2 Modern methods 3 References 4 External links [edit]History The history of bankruptcy prediction includes application of numerous statistical tools which gradually became available, and involves deepening appreciation of various pitfalls in early analyses. Interestingly, research is still published that suffers pitfalls that have been understood for many years. Bankruptcy prediction has been a subject of formal analysis since at least 1932, when FitzPatrick published a study of 20 pairs of firms, one failed and one...
Words: 382 - Pages: 2
...Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Knowledge-Based Systems journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/knosys Bankruptcy prediction models based on multinorm analysis: An alternative to accounting ratios Javier de Andrés ⇑, Manuel Landajo, Pedro Lorca University of Oviedo, Spain a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t In this paper we address the bankruptcy prediction problem and outline a procedure to improve the performance of standard classifiers. Our proposal replaces traditional indicators (accounting ratios) with the output of a so-called multinorm analysis. The deviations of each firm from a battery of industry norms (computed by nonparametric quantile regression) are used as input variables for the classifiers. The approach is applied to predict bankruptcy of firms, and tested on a representative data set of Spanish firms. Results indicate that the approach may provide significant improvements in predictive accuracy, both in linear and nonlinear classifiers. Ó 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Article history: Received 9 February 2011 Received in revised form 2 October 2011 Accepted 3 November 2011 Available online 30 December 2011 Keywords: Bankruptcy prediction Classification techniques Nonparametric methods Quantile regression Accounting ratios 1. Introduction Under the current economic conditions, bankruptcy early warning systems have become tools of key importance in order to guarantee the stability of the economy, as a consequence of...
Words: 10207 - Pages: 41
...4303 | [Type the abstract of the document here. The abstract is typically a short summary of the contents of the document. Type the abstract of the document here. The abstract is typically a short summary of the contents of the document.] | Contents Executive Summary – Page 3 Introduction – Page 4 – 5 Critical Literature Review – Page 6 – 7 Methodology – Page 8 – 9 Data Analysis – Page 10 – 11 Conclusion – Page 11 Bibliography – Page 12 Appendices – Page 13 - 13 Executive Summary The aim of this report is to discover whether General Motors have improved since their bankruptcy in June 2009 and how? With the aid of primary research appearing in the form of questionnaires and secondary research deriving from articles and other various published documents which discuss the topic of General Motors and their bankruptcy. The result of the research finds us with the findings that General Motors have not only upheld their infamous reputation which they once possessed but they also have increased it by recording their highest profits in their history three years after filing for bankruptcy. Overall this led to the conclusion that it was the transformation of management which assisted General Motors on their route back to the glory days of the company – ‘As late as the 1990s, it was the leading company in the US light vehicle market’ (Maction, 2013) Introduction General Motors, commonly known as GM is an American based multinational automotive corporation within the...
Words: 4945 - Pages: 20
...PRACTICE & THEORY Vol. 24, No. 1 May 2005 pp. 21ñ35 Recent Changes in the Association between Bankruptcies and Prior Audit Opinions Marshall A. Geiger, K. Raghunandan, and Dasaratha V. Rama SUMMARY: The intense legislative and media scrutiny after a series of high-profile corporate failures, coupled with the paradigm shift in the regulation of the auditing profession brought forth by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, suggests that auditorsí decisions would be more conservative in the period after December 2001. Based on analyses of 226 financially stressed companies that entered bankruptcy during the period from 2000 to 2003, we find that auditors are more likely to issue going-concern modified audit opinions in the period after December 2001. Since the post-December 2001 period coincides with recovery from a recession in the U.S., we also examine prior audit opinions for 93 companies entering bankruptcy in 1991 and 1992. We find that auditors were also more likely to issue prior going-concern modified audit opinions in 2002ñ03 than in the earlier recession recovery period. Following the technique used in Francis and Krishnan (2002), we document that the increase in going-concern modification rates for bankrupt companies after December 2001 is due to changes in auditor reporting decisions and not solely due to differences in client characteristics between the time periods studied. Keywords: bankruptcy; going-concern reports. Data Availability: Contact the authors. INTRODUCTION he period...
Words: 8724 - Pages: 35
...updated from E. Altman, “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy,” Journal of Finance, September 1968; and E. Altman, R. Haldeman and P. Narayanan, “Zeta Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 1, 1977. Predicting Financial Distress of Companies: Revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA® Models Background This paper discusses two of the venerable models for assessing the distress of industrial corporations. These are the so-called Z-Score model (1968) and ZETA® 1977) credit risk model. Both models are still being used by practitioners throughout the world. The latter is a proprietary model for subscribers to ZETA Services, Inc. (Hoboken, NJ). The purpose of this summary are two-fold. First, those unique characteristics of business failures are examined in order to specify and quantify the variables which are effective indicators and predictors of corporate distress. By doing so, I hope to highlight the analytic as well as the practical value inherent in the use of financial ratios. Specifically, a set of financial and economic ratios will be analyzed in a corporate distress prediction context using a multiple discriminant statistical methodology. Through this exercise, I will explore not only the quantifiable characteristics of potential bankrupts but also the utility of a much-maligned technique of financial analysis: ratio analysis. Although the models that we will discuss were developed...
Words: 8723 - Pages: 35
...Bangladesh 2. Faculty of Business, East West University Bangladesh ABSTRACT This paper applies performance evaluation of ceramic industry of Bangladesh and to test its financial soundness. The main aim is achieved through ratio analysis of four selected ceramic (Fu Wang, Monno, Shinepukur and Standard) companies in Bangladesh. Measurement of financial performance by ratio analysis helps identify organizational strengths and weaknesses by detecting fi- nancial anomalies and focusing attention on issues of organizational importance. The financial performance of this industry is measured in terms of profitability, solvency, efficiency and liquidity analysis and to test the financial soundness, Multivariate Discriminate Analysis (MDA) is used, which was developed by Prof. Altman. The study covers four public sector ceramic com- panies listed on Dhaka Stock Exchange. The study has been undertaken for the period of five years from 2006-7 to 2010-2011 and the necessary data has been obtained from the audited annual report of the selected companies. The liquidity position was very weak in all the cases of the selected companies and thereby reflecting the difficulties in paying short-term obligation on due date. Financial stability of the selected companies has shown an upward trend. This study will help investors to identify the nature of financial performance of the ceramic industry of Bangladesh and will also help to take investment decision. Keywords : Ratio Analysis, Financial...
Words: 1767 - Pages: 8
...prices. But the recent market erosion by small companies has raised concerns. And UST’s “counter attack” has not been effective in competing against price-value brands. The resignation of his CFO and President of tobacco unit further raise the uncertainty of the company’s efficiency of solving the market erosion problem. C. The previous uncertainty is enhanced by a lawsuit that alleged that UST had violated antitrust and advertising laws and participated in anti-competitive conduct. Should UST lost the suite, it will be more vulnerable with competitors. D. Although the current scientific research that ties tobacco to cancer is not conclusive, it’s uncertain that future research result will jeopardize the tobacco industry. E. There is a chance of a cultural shift against tobacco, and UST is unlikely to expand to international market. 2. Why is UST Inc. considering a leveraged...
Words: 1263 - Pages: 6
...Abstract Lehman collapse was the largest bank bankruptcy in the United States history. Complex causes combination lead to this tragedy. This paper is going to illustrate primary causes that result in its failure, and also discuss impacts on financial systems supervision and regulations. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 4 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1 3.1 Data collection 2 3.2 Methodology x 3.3 Limitations 3 4. ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION 4 4.1 5 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.4 4.1.5 4.2 4.3 6 5. CONCLUSION 1 6. REFERENCES 4 7. APPENDICES 1 8. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1 1. INTRODUCTION The credit crunch occurred in 2008 has been arguably recognised as an extreme phenomenon during the financial crisis, which generated to the longest recession in the U.S. history since ‘the Great Depression’ in1929. Over 600,000 jobs lost in during 2008, and unemployment rate went up to 6.1% which was the highest point in 5-year time (Isidore, 2008). According to the Turner Review (2009), faultiness of regulation and supervision underpinned financial problems’ increase. Therefore, to illustrate the causes of Lehman Bother’s crash in 2008, events occurred during crisis progress are listed in Appendix 1. Among those serious cases, bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was concerned to be the most typical...
Words: 9576 - Pages: 39
...Rev Account Stud (2009) 14:534–558 DOI 10.1007/s11142-008-9080-5 Bankruptcy prediction: the case of Japanese listed companies Ming Xu Æ Chu Zhang Published online: 26 July 2008 Ó Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008 Abstract This paper investigates if bankruptcy of Japanese listed companies can be predicted using data from 1992 to 2005. We find that the traditional measures, such as Altman’s (J Finance 23:589–609, 1968) Z-score, Ohlson’s (J Accounting Res 18:109–131, 1980) O-score and the option pricing theory-based distance-todefault, previously developed for the U.S. market, are also individually useful for the Japanese market. Moreover, the predictive power is substantially enhanced when these measures are combined. Based on the unique Japanese institutional features of main banks and business groups (known as Keiretsu), we construct a new measure that incorporates bank dependence and Keiretsu dependence. The new measure further improves the ability to predict bankruptcy of Japanese listed companies. Keywords Bankruptcy risk measure Á Accounting information Á Option pricing theory Á Japanese listed companies Á Bank dependence Á Keiretsu JEL Classifications G15 Á G33 1 Introduction When a company falls into bankruptcy, its stakeholders lose some or all the value they invested in the company. From an investor’s point of view, it is important to M. Xu (&) School of Accounting and Finance, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China e-mail:...
Words: 13066 - Pages: 53
...truly understand and analyse whether innovative thinking is being constrained by strategic planning systems, it is essential to understand which strategic planning systems are being used, whether their implementation limits the allowance to new and different approaches to organisations, and whether companies in real-life are being affected by this constraint. Before analysing whether innovative thinking is oppressed by strategic planning systems, it is important to define what a strategic planning system is. According to the BNET Business Dictionary (2007), strategic analysis is ‘…the process of conducting research on the business environment within which an organisation operates and on the organisation itself, in order to formulate strategy’. There are many different tools and analytical methods that are used by companies but there are three main types of analyses: the SWOT Analysis, the PESTLE Analysis, and the Porter’s Five Forces Model. Most companies use these strategic planning systems in order to analyse the information regarding markets and before making any major business decisions. It is these strategies that make a company successful but it can also hinder a company’s ability to be creative and innovative in a time where the...
Words: 1745 - Pages: 7
...Proposal for Research On Capital Structure Determinants of the Pharmaceutical Companies in Bangladesh: A study in Incepta pharmaceutical Company Limited. Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka-1216 Proposal for Research On Capital Structure Determinants of the Pharmaceutical Companies in Bangladesh: A study in Incepta pharmaceutical Company Limited. Prepared for Md. Sawkat Ali Lieutenant Colonel Internship Supervisor Faculty of Business Studies Prepared by |Ronald Halder | |ID – M 0910013 | |M.B.A 10th batch | Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka-1216 September 19, 2010 December 19, 2010 Md. Sawkat Ali Lieutenant Colonel Internship Supervisor Faculty of Business Studies Bangladesh University of Professionals Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka-1216. Dear Sir: Subject: Submission of Proposal for research on “Capital Structure Determinants of the Pharmaceutical Companies in Bangladesh: A study in Incepta pharmaceutical Company Limited”. Here I developed a proposal on “Capital Structure Determinants of the Pharmaceutical Companies in Bangladesh: A study in Incepta pharmaceutical Company Limited”. The proposal will focus on the steps of research through several variables. The main findings of the research will be to find out the determinants of capital structure and find the most vital one through statistical analysis and interpretation. I highly appreciate you for creating such opportunity...
Words: 1914 - Pages: 8
...of money to achieve maximum returns. While working on this specific assignment I decided to concentrate on financial ratio analysis, since I am the business owner, and most of the financial terms like balance sheet, shareholder’s equity, EBITDA, EBITDAM, financial ethics, financial benchmarking I am very familiar with. I must admit that understanding financial ratio analysis I found somehow difficult, this is why I decided to concentrate on this topic. Summary of Articles The first article that I read is called “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Predictions of Corporate Bankruptcy” by Edward I. Altman, published 1968 in the Journal of Finance. The article says that academicians are seeking to eliminate ratio analysis as an analytical technique in assessing the performance of a business. According to the article theorists are attacking the relevance of ratio analysis. The article explores the possibility of whether the gap between traditional ratio analysis and more rigorous statistical techniques can be bridged. According to the article the traditional ratio analysis is no longer an important analytical technique in the academic environment because of the unsophisticated manner in which it has been presented. The research combined financial ratios with discriminate analysis, applying this to the problem of corporate bankruptcy prediction. The article concludes that if the ratios are analyzed within a multivariate framework they take on greater statistical...
Words: 1459 - Pages: 6
...concerns the strategies for Eastman Kodak Company to recover from bankruptcy and improve products. Since 1880, Eastman Kodak has been known for their high quality photography equipment (George Eastman, n,d). However, in 2012, Kodak has filed for bankruptcy due to many reasons including failure to keep up with improvements in technology (Mui, 2012). The Research Department is planning to restore Kodak’s former prestige by improving the company’s ability to adapt to the rapid technological advancements. In order to do this, we were able to agree to present the Board of Directors with two solutions which are: A. Allow the research department to hire five new employees to increase productivity. If we hire younger and enthusiastic minds working together, the research department will be able to work more efficiently. B. Allow the research department to contract four experienced scientists from different companies to assist the research staff. If we have more experienced minds working with our research department, we will be able to work together to invent better products and discover new technology. The two options presented on this letter have been carefully analyzed using five different criteria which will be explained in this report. The research department has come up with our recommendation that we believe would be an excellent choice at the end of the report. Sincerely, Bryan Espichan Supervising Research Scientist Table of Contents Introduction… 5 Problem...
Words: 2030 - Pages: 9
...Research / Analysis # 2 Baker College 1. When reviewing the American Bankruptcy Institutes website I was researching the total number of bankruptcies in 2012, the total number of non-bankruptcies in 2012, and the total number of business bankruptcies in 2012. My findings concluded that the total number of bankruptcies in 2012 which consists of business and non-business fillings which includes the states and D.C. was 1,232,294 (ABI, 2013). The total number of non-business filings in the states and D.C. in 2012 was 1,232,294. The report shows that there were 811,789 non-business Chapter 7 filings and 352,553 non business Chapter 13 filings in 2012 (ABI, 2013). My reports also show that amongst the 57,527 business filings in 2012 that 7,760 filed for Chapter 11, 97,167 filed for chapter 7, 12,485 filed for Chapter 13, and 115 businesses filed for Chapter 15 (ABI, 2013). With the information provided we can conclude that more companies file for Chapter 7. Filing for Chapter 7 means that a business simply does not have the income to repay any portion of their debts. In this case many of the assets will have to be turned over, and this can make it hard for the business to continue to operate, and it may involve the liquidation of the business (All Law, 2013). Now chapter 13 came in second place with 12,485 filings, and with Chapter 13 this is usually the best option for businesses. There is no asset-sale in a Chapter 13, but businesses do need...
Words: 1650 - Pages: 7
...The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 45 (2005) 48–64 Contagion effects of the world’s largest bankruptcy: the case of WorldCom Aigbe Akhigbea,∗ , Anna D. Martinb , Ann Marie Whytec a Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, University of Akron, Akron, OH 44325, USA b Department of Finance, Charles F. Dolan School of Business, Fairfield University, USA c Department of Finance, School of Business, University of Central Florida, USA Received 16 June 2003; received in revised form 23 December 2003; accepted 27 July 2004 Available online 26 November 2004 Abstract On July 19, 2002 WorldCom sought protection from its creditors when it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, earning the distinction as the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history. The events surrounding this history-making occurrence provide an important opportunity to examine the repercussions for WorldCom’s stakeholders. We especially focus on the valuation effects of the WorldCom failure on exposed financial institutions for their important monitoring roles as institutional investors and creditors. Despite the heightened uncertainty facing investors during this period, we find that the market is remarkably efficient in distinguishing among the various types of stakeholders. In particular, institutional investors and creditors are largely unaffected by the events, which is expected based on the benefit of diversification. In contrast, large and key competitors are adversely affected by the events...
Words: 8815 - Pages: 36