Jim Jordan
3/10/13
Environmental Planning

Risk Management and Drought

In order to be able to discuss the components needed for a risk management approach to a drought, it is important to first understand what risk is. How likely is it? What can happen? What are the impacts? Questions like these are very useful in understanding what risk is, and how to evaluate the risk. By taking both the possibility of an event happening as well as the possible consequences of such an event, such as a flood for example, can help rank how big of a risk is involved. It is also important to realize that risk affects different people differently, so the risk perception and concern is different from one person to the next, so therefore the needs for reduction is different from one individual to the next. These needs can apply to any event, but are particularly important when it comes to managing a drought. A drought is defined as a deficiency of precipitation from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time. It is important to note that a drought is not a permanent feature of climate, but instead is a temporary feature or an aberration. Aridity on the other hand is a permanent climate feature that is primarily dry, and is often found in the Southwestern part of the United States. Another distinct feature about a drought is that unlike other climate phenomena, it is a very slow onset, sometimes referred to as “creeping” or non-event. The impacts tend to be spread over large areas and it is very difficult to tell when a drought begins, and when it ends. They are several forms of drought, one of them being a Meteorological drought. This is based on precipitation’s departure from normal over a period of time. Generally, meteorological measurements are the first indicators of a drought. Usually agricultural drought will then become evident. This occurs when there is not enough soil moisture to meet the needs of a particular crop at a specific time. This was a problem back when people first started migrating from the East to the West, and tried to implement farming techniques from the East. Unfortunately, the different climate made this very difficult and eventually led to the dustbowl of the 1930s. The soil lost its vegetation, and the little moisture that it did have quickly disappeared. The third form of drought is called a hydrological drought. This occurs when there are deficiencies in the surface and subsurface water supplies. There is a time lag between the lack of rain or snow and less water in streams, rivers, and lakes, so this is why hydrological droughts are not the earliest indicators of a drought. When precipitation is reduced or deficient for a long time, this storage is reflected in declining surface and subsurface water levels. Knowing when to act though is an important part for a risk management. Acting after the fact, when the drought is severe and water restrictions are put in place is typical of being in crisis management mode, but by being alert, and monitoring drought conditions, hopefully crisis management can be avoided. Monitoring climate data, soil moisture, stream flow, ground water, reservoir and lake levels, snow pack, and monitoring the short, medium and long range forecasts are all ways to manage the risk of a drought without going into crises mode. Other ways to manage the situation would be to change or alter crop management practices, such as the planting date, crop selection, and nutrient management. Producers could also adapt to climate changes in livestock through changes in practices that reduce exposure to thermal stress. Historically, one of the biggest issues that farmers face is that agriculture develops over time in a region based on “normal” climate conditions. By incorporating some of the above techniques, the impacts of such an extreme event could be greatly minimized. This leads into some long term strategies, which could be very useful in minimizing the impacts of such a prolonged event. Being prepared, which means to improve the effectiveness of response and recovery, and establishing some kind of early warning system would do wonders to help this situation. These systems could help farmers decide what crop they think might do the best during these times, and plant those instead of planting based on “normal” totals and then having those crops die out. Implementing mitigation measures would also help reduce the impact of extreme events prior to the event actually occurring. Conserving ground water, monitoring stream flow, or monitoring climate data could help implement some of these strategies. Adaptation strategies, such as changing the planting date could be very useful, and necessary to reduce the impacts of extreme climate conditions. The objectives of these long term strategies include incorporating weather and climate knowledge and management decisions for agricultural production. Optimizing production level through the use of weather and climate information while maintaining environmental integrity and minimizing the degradation of soil could also help achieve sustainability. The technology used should aid in the production, but not harm the resource base in the long term. The agricultural world also needs to come up with some drought mitigation strategies for irrigation systems. Irrigation agencies need to come up with a formal water allocation policy that includes contingency plans in the event of water shortages. These policies need to then be accepted by both the farmers and those that use the water, in both normal and drought conditions. It does not do anybody any good if farmers are arguing with the city about how to distribute water during a shortage time, and then nothing gets accomplished, which has been known to happen. Napa Valley California is a prime example. When they went through a severe drought, the city was pumping the water out of the local lake that the farmers relied on, and this created a big stir, which does show the weakness of such policies. If the water uses and farmers do not agree on the distribution of water, than nothing gets done, and the water shortage just gets bigger. So when making these policies with water shortage conditions, the allocation decisions should be made at basin and system levels rather than at local distribution system levels. Also, to make these systems less vulnerable to drought, irrigation planning needs to take into account the changes in development in the watershed and climate changes. The best chance for farmers to avoid crop failure is to have early warning systems that monitor changing conditions and trigger some type of contingency plan at the first sight of water shortage. Water saving techniques, such as irrigation, zero tillage, raised bed planting, and laser leveling of fields, can help farmers make the best use of scarce supplies. This will also lead to improved productivity of water, and this should remain a priority, even when conditions are normal. A weakness to this type of system is that while these policies may help a rural type lifestyle, it may not help an urban lifestyle, so the challenge for these policies will be to implement strategies that will benefit both types of lifestyles. So to come up with a good drought preparation plan, it is recommended to follow a ten step planning process. Appoint a drought task force, state a purpose and objectives of the drought preparedness plan, seek stakeholder participation and resolve conflict, identify resources and groups of risk, prepare and write the drought preparation plan, identify research needs and fill institutional gaps, integrate the science and policy, publicize the drought preparedness plan and build public awareness, develop educational programs, and to evaluate and revise the plan where needed. North Carolina is currently coming up with an action plan to make them drought ready, which is a very smart idea because this area has been hit with droughts in the past, the most extreme recently was in 2008. So to prevent crop failure, preventing water shortage, and having to implement crisis management techniques, these recommendations could go a long way in preventing a widespread disaster. In closing, risk managing is very important to be able to properly prepare for water shortages and temporary climate changes. By coming up with effective drought mitigation strategies, as well as knowing the risk of climate changes, and knowing when and how likely they will happen, the risk of suffering widespread crop losses and as well as strict water restrictions can be minimized. Early warning systems could be very useful in making this happen, and understanding what type of climate exists in a specific geographic region could also help in writing up a drought management plan. Droughts will happen, no matter what systems you have in place, and no system is perfect, but being prepared for it could drastically reduce losses for everyone. The key is to find a balance between the rural lifestyles of the farmers, to the more urban lifestyle of the cities. Properly maintaining water usage will also go a long way, even in normal conditions so that the lifestyle does not have to become drastically different when there are times of water shortage.