...Risk Factor Analysis— A New Qualitative Risk Management Tool John P. Kindinger, Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory John L. Darby, Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory Introduction Project risk analysis, like all risk analyses, must be implemented using a graded approach; that is, the scope and approach of the analysis must be crafted to fit the needs of the project based on the project size, the data availability, and other requirements of the project team. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed a systematic qualitative project risk analysis technique called the Risk Factor Analysis (RFA) method as a useful tool for early, preconceptual risk analyses, an intermediate-level approach for medium-size projects, or as a prerequisite to a more detailed quantitative project risk analysis. This paper introduces the conceptual underpinnings of the RFA technique, describes the steps involved in performing the analysis, and presents some examples of RFA applications and results. project activity flow chart to help organize the RFA. The flow chart defines the tasks to be modeled and their interrelationships for the project schedule analysis. WBS and schedule tasks may be consolidated and/or expanded to explicitly highlight those tasks and influences that are expected to have a significant technical risk and/or significant uncertainty in schedule or cost performance. The flow chart is developed...
Words: 2257 - Pages: 10
...A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS INVESTMENT AVENUES WITH RESPECT TO RISK & RETURN A Project Report Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Award of Degree of E-MBA Submitted by : Prabhjeet Singh [pic] BHARATI VIDYAPEETH DEEMED UNIVERSITY, PUNE (INDIA) School of Distance Education (SDE) Academic Study Center : BVIMR, New Delhi (University established under 3 of the UGC act,1956) CONTENTS |S.No | |P.No. | | |Acknowledgement |2 | | |Certificate |3 | |1. |Introduction | | | |1.1 : Introduction |6-7 | | |1.2 Company Profile | | | |1.3 Industry Analysis |8-14 | | |1.4 Problem in the Organisation | | | |1...
Words: 17636 - Pages: 71
...When we look at the terms of risk reduction and hazard control we get the terms of eliminating and reducing the issues. Where control of hazards seek to maintain instead of removing the process. The term that risk reduction is applied to is a complete understanding of the intent of the criterion to ty risk- reducing the probability of the events occurring. In the terms of the second and third definitions of risk because they include both the probability of the event and the severity of the harmful consequences. Risk reduction is a term that capture the fundamental concept that harmful events consist of the three phases. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st e A physical model is one that thing would be (like if you were creating a model of say a building, park, airplane or other large structure or area), sometimes it's actual size if it is small enough. You build or have built that you can touch. Sometimes it is a miniature version of what the real. What I mean by physical models is those that are meant to represent the physical world, as opposed to – for example – biomechanical, or computers models. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st ed.). Whenever you are planning or one have to deal with risk and hazards we should looking in to the process from the beginning to the end. Where do we want to be at this point in the project as...
Words: 877 - Pages: 4
...struggling to understand what the threats to their information assets are and how to obtain the necessary means to combat them which continues to pose a challenge. The ISF’s Information Risk Analysis Methodology (IRAM) enables organizations to access business information risk and select the right set of security controls to mitigate that risk. IRAM2 Founded in 1989, the Information Security Forum (ISF) is an independent, not-for-profit association of leading organizations from around the world. It is dedicated to investigating, clarifying and resolving key issues in cyber, information security and risk management by developing best practice methodologies, processes and solutions that meet the business needs of its Members. ISF aims its products at large public and private sector organizations, and produces an annually updated Standard of Good Practice for Information Security. This approach has three phases: a business impact assessment which determines the security requirements of the business, a threat and vulnerability assessment, and control selection. IRAM2 is a simple, practical yet rigorous business essential that helps ISF Members identify, analyze and treat information risk throughout the organization. The standard and its related tools, which must be purchased from ISF, make for a thorough risk management package. The price of the materials includes user guides and attendance at some ISF events....
Words: 2215 - Pages: 9
...Financial Management – Module Assignment Financial Ratios, Risk and Return Analysis of PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PREFACE This Financial Management Module Assignment has been prepared to fulfill the requirements of the subject. In this module assignment, we will discuss our analysis about PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk as our object of this assignment. We reviewed and analyzed the firm’s financial statements periodically, both to uncover developing problems and to assess the firm’s progress toward achieving goals. Financial ratios enable financial managers to monitor the pulse of the firm and its progress toward its strategic goals. We also analyzed about a firm’s risk and expected return directly affect its share price. It is therefore the financial manager’s responsibility to assess carefully the risk and return of all major decisions so as to ensure that the expected returns justify the level of risk being introduced. It is hoped that this module assignment can fulfil the requirements of the subject in this semester. Jakarta, December 2010 Team BRIEF CONTENTS COVER PAGE 1 PREFACE 2 BRIEF CONTENTS 3 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION A. PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk 5 B. Corporate Vision 6 C. Corporate Mission 6 D. Corporate Culture 6 CHAPTER 2 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS A. Balance Sheets as of December 31, 2005, 2006 7 B. Balance...
Words: 2638 - Pages: 11
...Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy With the promulgation of the MSMED Act, 2006, the restrictive 24% ceiling prescribed for equity holding by industrial undertakings, whether domestic or foreign, in the MSEs has been done away with and MSEs are defined solely on the basis of investment in plant and machinery (manufacturing enterprises) and equipment (service enterprises). Thus, the present policy on FDI in MSE permit FDI subject only to the sectoral equity caps, entry routes and other relevant sectoral regulations. The issue of de-reservation had been a subject of animated debate within government for more than twenty years. The Approach to the Eleventh Five Year Plan noted the adverse implications of reservation of products for exclusive manufacture by the MSEs and recommended the policy of progressive de-reservation. To facilitate further investments for technological up-gradation and higher productivity in the micro and small enterprises, 654 items have been taken off the list of items reserved for exclusive manufacture by the manufacturing micro and small enterprises in the last few years – reducing it to 21 at present. This has helped the sector in enlarging the scale of operations and also paved the way for entry of larger enterprises in the manufacture of these products in keeping with the global standards. Credit/Finance Credit is one of the critical inputs for the promotion and development of the micro and small enterprises. Some of the features of existing credit...
Words: 507 - Pages: 3
...CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.0 OVERVIEW This paper intent to analyze the performance of Islamic equity unit trust funds’ in CIMB Wealth Advisors Berhad by comparing with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Composite Index (KLCI) as benchmark. This chapter will discuss the background of the study, historical development of unit trust industry in Malaysia, understanding unit trust, problem statement, research objectives and the significance of the study. 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY A plenty of investments alternative can be seen nowadays. But it’s depends on people which alternative they prefer to invest or depend on their skills of investing in such instruments. Most of the people who are lack in financial knowledge or investing skills will prefer to make investments in unit trust funds. There has abundance of benefits in unit trust and also can be advantageous to the small investors. Unit trust is an ideal way for small investors to invest for their future. Small investors are people who earn their living engaged in activities not related to the financial arena. They are aware that investing is important to them, but they lack of know-how to make the right decisions. For people who are unable or unwilling to do research and analyze investment markets and climate on their own, unit trusts is a good way to invest. In order to maintain a portfolio of stocks in the share market, a person has to keep himself up-to-date with market information and climate. For many people, this is difficult...
Words: 11625 - Pages: 47
...INVESTMENT ANALYSIS Table of Contents 1.0. Introduction: 3 3.0. Advantages of frequency distribution: 3 4.0. Analysis of returns of Reliance industries limited 4 3.1 Analysis of return of ONGC: 5 3.2 Analysis of return of Bharti Airtel: 6 4. Measurement of central tendency: 6 4.1 Mode: 7 4.2 Median: 7 4.3 Mean 7 5. Conclusion: 8 REFERENCES 10 1.0. Introduction: Generally shares are issued in the primary market and new issued shares are traded in the secondary market. BSE and NSE are two renowned stock exchanges which plays an important role in Indian stock market. Most of the big companies in India are listed in these stock exchanges. The companies are enlisted with these stock exchanges as per rules and regulation specified by particular stock exchanges (Greer and Kolbe, 2008). In Indian context the company distributes the shares in lieu of capital with the help of these stock exchanges. It is an essential pillar of private sector companies. Mallin and Ow–Yong (2009) commented that capital formation is the main function of stock exchanges. Beside the main function stock exchanges in India do lots of work. It provides a place where all the securities are traded. Security market provides a linkage between saving sector and corporate sector. Stock market generally provides the all the information about price and trading of the securities altogether. The author selects three big companies i.e. Reliance industries ltd, ONGC, Bharti Airtel Ltd, to compare...
Words: 2176 - Pages: 9
...Bangladesh 7 2.2 Economic outlook 7 Industry Analysis 8 COMPANY ANALYSIS 9 ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION 9 Conclusion 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Today’s business world is so much competitive as a result every person has to be very cautious while taking an investment decision. Various types of analysis are performed by the investors to choose the most perfect securities. In a portfolio construction a person analysis the whole macro as well as micro economic scenario of a nation, in industry analysis the industry condition, movement is closely examined and in a company analysis the specific firm is analyzed to take a decision. This are steps of fundamental analysis.. In this report all this are performed on ten firms. Our selected firms are from different industries. All of these companies’ shares are category A shares in DSE. We have collected our necessary information from primary and secondary sources. In our entire report we try to focus on portfolio construction from an investor’s perspective. We have divided the topics of the report into different segments. First we have discussed about the origin of the report, objectives and scope of the study, the method of preparing the report, limitation of the study. Then we have chosen the companies. At first we did the macro economic analysis, than industry analysis and last company analysis. Then we constructed the portfolio including with and without short sells. After all analysis we have given our suggestion as well as findings...
Words: 2939 - Pages: 12
...financial analysis of Caterpiller Inc. (CAT). The use of various analytical tools, the assignment covered major fundamental parameters relating the company and its stock. The analysis consisted of stock reporting analysis, ratio analysis, duo point analysis, weekly return analysis and the analysis of cost of equity. The stock reporting analysis part of the project analyzed the stock selected with respect to the market Index. For the purpose of analysis the prices of both stock and index were downloaded for the period beginning 15-Jan-2009 till 15-Nov-2011. Ratio analysis had been used as the primary tool for evaluating the performance of the company. The ratio analysis helps in analyzing the probable casual relationships among different items after analyzing the past results. These ratios are derived after analyzing the past results and helps management to prepare budgets, to formulate policy and to prepare future plan. Ratio analysis also helps in making inter firm comparison and also comparisons between different divisions of the company. The required rate of return of CAT is calculated with the help of CAPM model. The model explains the relationship between the systematic risk associated with a stock and its expected return. In this model a stock’s expected return is the risk free rate of return (generally return on Govt. Treasury bonds is taken as risk free rate of return) plus a risk premium based on the stock’s systematic risk. Analysis Stock Reporting Analysis The...
Words: 1496 - Pages: 6
...Lecture Handouts for Chapter 5 Chapter 5 is covered in lectures 31 and 32. Risk and Return The return from an investment is the change in market price, plus any cash payments received due to ownership, divided by the beginning price. The risk of a security can be viewed as the variability of returns from those that are expected. Measurement of Risk The expected return is simply a weighted average of the possible returns, with the weights being the probabilities of occurrence. The conventional measure of dispersion, or variability, around an expected value is the standard deviation σ. The square of the standard deviation σ2 is known as the variance (σ2). The standard deviation can sometimes be misleading in comparing the risk, or uncertainty, surrounding alternative investments if they differ in size. To adjust for the size, or scale, problem, the standard deviation can be divided by the expected return to compute the coefficient of variation (CV) – a measure of “risk per unit of expected return.” Investor’s Attitude towards Risk Investors have different attitudes while deciding between the risk and return in an investment. Investors are, by and large, risk averse. This implies that they demand a higher expected return, the higher the risk. The expected return from a portfolio The expected return from a portfolio (or group) of investments is simply a weighted average of the expected returns of the securities comprising that portfolio. The weights are equal to the proportion...
Words: 4121 - Pages: 17
...Risk and return will be very central terms in our analysis and it is essential that the reader clearly understands the meaning of each term and how assets with different payout structures can be compared. General utility theory suggests that the average investor is risk averse. Given the same expected return of two assets with different risks, he would prefer the one with less risk. (This assumption may not be perfectly true for all individuals in all situations, but for the investor community as a whole it is probably true). For an asset with uncertain cash flows and payoffs, which are normally distributed, the mean of the distribution will be the expected return while the standard deviation forms some kind of “risk”. Choosing the “less risky” asset therefore comes down to choosing the asset with the lowest standard deviation in its payout distribution. An investor could also approach the problem from the other direction, choosing among assets with the same risk and then choose the asset with the highest expected return. Risk is usually defined as the volatility of returns, measured by standard deviation. The variance of a portfolio depends not only on the individual variances of the as- sets, but also on the co-variances between the components of the portfolio. As an extreme example, a portfolio consisting of two securities – a long position in a stock and with an appropriately chosen position in a put option on the same stock – will have lower...
Words: 1289 - Pages: 6
...a method of pricing assets of capital nature. This model applies Beta (non-diversifiable risk) to link risks and returns of investments. According to Stahl (2016), Beta is a standard for measuring the systematic risk or the non-diversifiable risk. The uncertainty in the economy of a particular country causes the systematic risk. Systematic risk is that risk sharing or risk diversification cannot reduce. Economic downturns, war, natural calamities and a change of government policy are some of the activities that cause systematic risk. Both CAPM and Beta are measures of risk (Anon 2014). The capital assets pricing model defines the required rate of return of security. CAPM can be a mathematical equation, or a graphical representation is known as the security market line (SML) (Stahl 2015). An analysis of CAPM indicates that there are several critiques of this model. Nevertheless, there are multivariate models used to overcome these critiques. A).Formulas to Calculate CAPM and Beta 1). Capital Assets Pricing Model CAPM= [pic]= [pic]+ [pic] (RM-RF) Where; [pic] is the cutoff rate or even minimum required rate of return RM- RF is the risk premium and is above free rate RM is the market returns [pic] is the risk-free rate of returns [pic] is the beta of asset j Illustration Assuming that [pic]= 1.2, RM= 12% and [pic]= 4%. Use the CAPM to calculate the required rate of return. Solution CAPM= [pic]= [pic]+ [pic] (RM-RF) [pic]= 4+1.2 (12-4) [pic]= 4+ (1.2 x 8) ...
Words: 1132 - Pages: 5
...apply technologies for valuing firms and for strategic planning to generate value within the firm. • • Features of the approach: A disciplined approach to valuation: minimizes ad hockery – Built on theoretical and empirical findings from scientific research I ‘_ Marries fundamental analysis and financial statement analysis – Exploits accounting as a system for measuring value added – Exposes good (and “bad”) accounting from a valuation perspective L Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation • • • Integrates financial statement analysis with corporate finance Focuses on technologies that can be used in practice – Based on real world examples Adopts activist point of view to investing – The market may be inefficient 0-1 What Will You Learn from the Course Part I Financial statements and valuation Ch. 1-7 • How intrinsic values are calculated • What determines a firm’s value • How businesses are analyzed to assess the value they create • How financial analysis is developed for strategy and planning • The role of financial statements in determining firms’ values • How to pull apart the financial statements to get at the relevant information • How ratio analysis is employed in valuation • How growth is analyzed and valued • How to calculate the P/E and P/B ratio and what they should be • The value of operations • How to make forecasts and develop valuations • How to assess the quality of the accounting 0-2 _c I- By the end of the course,...
Words: 2057 - Pages: 9
...long-run allocation of the endowment to different asset classes. The second purpose of the Policy Portfolio was to act like a benchmark for the corporation to evaluate the performance of the active investment strategies pursued by its managers. A significant fraction of the compensation received by HMC managers was based on performance. This second point is why many of the board members believe it to be wise for an independent report done on the situation. This report will give a non-biased analysis of your current situation which cannot be provided by anyone already working in HMC. Our goal is to eliminate any biases or leanings Mr. Meyer may have while determining the course of action for the portfolio. Section 2: Harvard would like to use funds from the endowment to distribute money to the schools within the university, while at the same time preserving the real value of the endowment and allowing for some real growth in the income distributions. Harvard is currently looking for a real return of 6% to 7% to ensure that distribution of 3% to 4% can be maintained. The university’s investment horizon is nearly limitless, assuming that Harvard will be continuing as a university. For an institution that will not end its endowment in the foreseeable future, inflation is always a concern. This concern can be addressed by predicting inflation based on the Higher Education Price Index (HEPI) over the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The endowment does not have to do all the work to battle...
Words: 1381 - Pages: 6
