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Running the Economy

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Running the economy
TMA 2
(Part 1, 5 questions – 1000 words)
(Part 2, essay question – 1600 words)

PART 2
Making use of the chart in Figure 1, and the two extracts below, and illustrating your arguments using the IS diagram, discuss some key advantages and disadvantages of using fiscal and monetary policy to tackle the situation facing the UK in spring 2013.

Source: Bank of England (2013)

Figure 1 UK base rate January 2000 to March 2013

Fall in manufacturing fans UK triple-dip recession fears (Reuters, 12 March 2013)
British manufacturing output fell in January at the fastest pace since June, reinforcing fears that the economy has tipped into its third recession since the 2008 financial crisis.
The decline in manufacturing, and downbeat GDP estimates from a respected think-tank, will add to pressure on Chancellor George Osborne to come up with measures to revive growth in his annual budget next week.
Britain’s economy contracted in late 2012, endangering the government’s plans to bring its spending in line with its earnings and contributing to the loss of the country’s prized triple-A credit rating.
If economic activity shrinks again this quarter – as looks increasingly likely – Britain will be back in recession.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which last month predicted that Britain would avoid a triple-dip recession, said on Tuesday it was now a close call.
It estimated the economy shrank 0.1 per cent in the three months to February.
The pound fell to a two-and-a-half year low against the dollar and British government bonds rallied after the weak manufacturing data, which raised expectations for more bond buying from the Bank of England to shore up the economy.
“This is the penultimate nail in the coffin in terms of triple dip - it’s pretty much game over now,” said Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank.

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