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China in Big Trouble?

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All the signs coming from the economic data show that China is in big trouble
By New York Times | 19 Jul, 2013, 05.52PM IST

China banks' lending to property sector falls 17% in Q2 Obama's unlikely climate change partner: China China's first gold ETFs raise $261 mn, below expectations Former CIA boss says aware of evidence Huawei spying for China

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By Paul Krugman

All economic data are best viewed as a peculiarly boring genre of science fiction, but Chinese data are even more fictional than most. Add a secretive government, a controlled press and the sheer size of the country, and it's harder to figure out what's really happening in China than it is in any other major economy.
Yet the signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We're not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country's whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.
Start with the data, unreliable as they may be. What immediately jumps out at you when you compare China with almost any other economy, aside from its rapid growth, is the lopsided balance between consumption and investment. All successful economies devote part of their current income to investment rather than consumption, so as to expand their future ability to consume. China, however, seems to invest only to expand its future ability to invest even more. America, admittedly on the high side, devotes 70 percent of its gross domestic product to consumption; for China, the number is only half that high, while almost half of GDP is invested.
How is that even possible? What keeps consumption so low, and how have the

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