...Then discuss the underlying assumptions of the chosen model and evaluate whether it is sensitive to these assumptions. All the analyses are based on the SPSS software and the graphs are from the output. Part 1. Examine the data To apply certain model to forecast future value, find out the seasonal component, trends and cycles component is the basic job. There are two approaches to examine the data: see the time series plot (chart 1) or use ACF (chart 2). Chart 1 Plot of the data [pic] Chart 2 ACF/PACF of the data [pic][pic] [pic][pic] From both Chart 1 and Chart 2, the drawing conclusion is that the data has trend-cycle and seasonal components. Firstly, although there is no general upward trend and downward trend, clearly there is a cycle component: the data value climbs up in the first 20 data and then displays a down trend following behind. As to seasonal component, it is clearly from the time series plot that in each year the highest investment happened in the fourth quarter, while the lowest one occurred around the first quarter. From the ACF plot, the most significant autocorrelation is in lag 4, and there is also a spike in lag 8, indicating that there is a quarterly seasonal component. By carrying out a first...
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...Questions 1. Calculate HBS's cash cycle for the fourth quarter Inventory Period= 90 / (1149.9 / 1302.1) = 101.91 Average collection period= 90 / (1543.9 / 1338.8) = 78.04 Average Payment Period= 90 / (1149.9 / 304.4) = 23.82 Cash Cycle= 101.91-78.04-23.82 = 156.13 (B) Explain the Meaning of your estimated. | 31/3 | 30/6 | 30/9 | 31/12 | IP | 171.7959 | 81.73759 | 65.3962 | 101.9123 | ACP | 80.67912 | 78.71666 | 56.2496 | 78.04391 | APP | 63.78734 | 44.73063 | 21.33667 | 23.82468 | CC | 188.69 | 115.72 | 100.31 | 156.13 | Cash Cycle has a decreasing trend during 1995. It happens due to the decrease in the duration of higher inventory turnover and customer revenues than during the rotation of payments to suppliers. However, it is observed that in the last quarter growth cycle occurs from 100.31 to 156.13 cash days due to increasing IP and ACP and because of remaining approximately constant value of APP. This means that during the time of payment of cashing supply to the increased sales. So now need to attract resources for operational cycle for a longer period. Also it can be seen that during the collection of clients is larger than the period of payment of suppliers (78.04> 23.82). This is not good because normally these two durations should be close in value, and ideally during payment providers should be higher than during the collection of customers. The low level of cash cycle in the second and third quarter can be explained by the fact that...
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...tastes. More populations call for more food, more clothing, and more housing. Technological changes, discovery, or depletion of resources, improvements in business organization and Government intervention in the economy is other major causes for the growth or decline of many economic time series. Secular trends may be linear or nonlinear. (2) Seasonal variation Seasonal variations are those periodic movements in business activity, which occur regularly every year and have their origin in the nature of the year itself. Since they repeat over a period of 12 months, they can be predicted accurately. Almost any type of business activity is susceptible to a seasonal influence to a greater or lesser degree and as such, these variations are regarded as normal phenomena during every year. Although the word “seasonal” seems to connect with a season of the year, the term is meant to include any type of variation which is periodic in nature and whose repeating cycles are of a very short duration. Seasonal variations become evident when the data are recorded at weekly, monthly, or quarterly intervals. Although the amplitude of seasonal variations may vary, their period is fixed (one year). As a...
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...dependent variables, and (b) time series models, which produce forecasts by extrapolating the historical values of the variables of interest by, e.g., moving averages. Seasonal Model Seasonality is a pattern that repeats for each period. For example annual seasonal pattern has a cycle that is 12 periods long, if the periods are months, or 4 periods long if the periods are quarters. The seasonal index is required to be found for each month, or other periods, such as quarter, week depending on the data availability (Hossein, 1994-2006). Seasonal Index: Seasonal index represents the extent of seasonal influence for a particular segment of the year. The calculation involves a comparison of the expected values of that period to the grand mean. A seasonal index is how much the average for that particular period tends to be above (or below) the grand average. Therefore, to get an accurate estimate for the seasonal index, compute the average of the first period of the cycle, and the second period and divide each by the overall average (Hossein, 1994-2006). The formula for computing seasonal factors is: Si = Di/D, Where: Si = the seasonal index for ith period, Di = the average values of ith period, D = grand average, i = the ith seasonal period of the cycle. A seasonal index of one for a particular month indicates that the expected...
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...Adjustments before statistical analysis of time series data: Before we start statistical analysis of time series data, we should see whether or not they represent a series of comparable figures over time. A series of figures may not be comparable or homogeneous for a number of reasons. For example, Changes in population and geographical areas: The figures may relate to geographical areas which change over time. The series may relate to population which is always changing over time. The data related to geographical area or population are adjusted by expressing the data in ‘per unit’ or ‘per capita’. Calendar variations: Industrial production data over different months are not homogeneous as the number of working days in different calendar months are not same. To make the data on production comparable, we divide the figure for each month by the number of working days in that month to express the data in ‘per working day’ Price changes: Monetary data are not comparable over time as the purchasing power of money changes. To make monetary data comparable we divide the figures of the current period by a suitable price index (say, wholesale price index number) of the current period with respect to some base period. This will necessitate dividing or deflating the current figure by the index number of prices of the current period with the chosen base period. If the index number be I(0k) (in percent form), 100 rupees in base period (0) has the same purchasing power as I(0k) rupees...
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...price promotions. 3 – SC Operation – time horizon is weekly or daily. Decisions regarding individual customer orders. SC config. here is fixed and planning policies are already defined. The goal is to handle incoming customer orders in the best way. Allocation of inventory or production to individual orders, set dates when an order is to be filled, generate pick lists at a warehouse, allocate an order to a shipping mode and shipment, set delivery schedule of trucks and place replenishment orders. Less uncertainty about demand info. (short term). Process views of a SC: 1 - Cycle view – processes are divided into a series of cycles, each performed at the interface between two successive stages of a supply chain. Procurement cycle (suppliers to manuf.) – Manufacturing cycle (manufacturer to dist.), replenishment cycle (distributor to retailer) – Customer order cycle (retailer to customer). Each of these cycles...
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...Homeless and working for Amazon: the trap of the seasonal job cycle By: Jana Kasperkevic Sunday, 4, May 2014 In the lecture slides, Dr. Zhen presented seasonal unemployment was defined as those periods within the work force that is caused by seasonal shifts in labor supply and demand. The article that I will be discussing with you all today is entitled “Homeless and working for Amazon: the trap of the seasonal job cycle” written by Jana Kasperkevic. In Kasperkevic’s article she explains how Amazon is a job that lies under the title of seasonal unemployment, the journey of their employees once they are hired and life after they are released from Amazon due to no work. For those who may not know Amazon is an American electronic commerce company with its main office in Washington and it is the largest internet-based retailer in the United States. Although, they may be the largest internet retailer they too are subject to downfall, which is the topic discussed in this article. Amazon is known as a company who hits major sale peaks during the gift giving holidays such as Christmas. So, to be able to benefit from those sales and offer great customer service they in return hire a lot of staff. Which is a good thing that they are hiring people so that they can partake in receiving income, but they are blinded by the fact that Amazon is an opportunity for seasonal unemployment. So, when their job contract is up they are back on the hunt to find new jobs or for some back unemployed...
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...An Analysis on Seasonal Affective Disorder and the effects of Climate and Lighting on Emotion Brain, Mind & Behavior "Seasonal affective disorder also known as winter depression, winter blues, summer depression, summer blues, or seasonal depression, is a mood disorder in which people who have normal health throughout most of the year experience depressive symptoms in the winter or summer, spring or autumn year after year." In the DSM-IV, it is not characterized as a unique mood disorder but considered a 'specifier of major depression'. (Stephen, 2007) Is it not more than a convenience that the year’s most joyous holidays occur on the onset of the winter solstice? The impact of light on emotion has been shown and linked by numerous surveys and tests in the past. Low or dark lighting has been shown to cause eye fatigue and headaches. Absence of natural daylight triggers depression and poor immune defenses. Insufficient lighting is linked to emotional stress and to physical ailments. Bright light stimulates emotions, while low levels of illumination quiet the senses. On the other hand, an excess of unnatural light does not replace the calming effects of natural daylight. Too much artificial light and overly-bright rooms hurt the eyes and make one feel jittery. (Fisher E. , 2004) The impact of lighting on mood and cognition has been difficult to demonstrate because people in industrialized countries, on average, spend 93 percent of their time indoors, making them largely...
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...little is purchased) and keeping track of existing inventory and its use. Two common inventory-management strategies are the just-in-time method, where companies plan to receive items as they are needed rather than maintaining high inventory levels, and materials requirement planning, which schedules material deliveries based on sales forecasts. Some aspects of inventory CYCLE STOCK Cycle stock is the average amount of inventory a business needs to meet customer demand between the times it orders more inventory from suppliers. A company goes through its cycle stock inventory as it sells products and restocks inventory. It is required in order to meet demand under conditions of certainty ; that is, when the firm can predict demand and replenishment times(lead times). Cycle inventory is also known as “normal inventory” or “batching economies”. Cycle stock normally arises from three sources: acquisition, production and transportation. Scale economies are often associated with all three, which can result in the accumulation of stock that will not be used or sold immediately which means there will be cycle stock or inventory that will be used up or sold over some period of time. SAFETY STOCK Safety stock is an...
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...University of Hull | Supply Chain Planning and Control-Individual assignment: Pony Group | | | | 4/13/2013 | 56130 Model leader: Riccardo Mogre | Student number: 201100320 Word count: 2,662 Contents 1. Introduction 2 2. Section 1: Demand forecast 2 2.1. Moving average 2 2.2. Simple Exponential Smoothing 3 2.3. Holt’s Model 4 2.4. Winter’s Model 5 2.5. Demand forecast for XYZ 8 3. Section 2: Aggregate planning 9 3.1. Aggregate planning Question 1 10 3.2. Aggregate planning Question 2 11 4. Section 4: Pricing and revenue management 12 Appendix 15 1. Introduction This assignment is based on the market information of Pony group, an electronic manufacturer, to calculate and forecast the future development of this company. The topic is divided into three sections, the first part is to forecast the demand for next four months of Pony LCD TV screen, the second section is to identify the optimal production schedule for the cell phones market. The last section is to identify the optimal price for pony handheld consoles. 2. Section 1: Demand forecast In this section, it will provide the demand forecast for next four months based on the historical demand data. There are four forecast methods used in this part, which are moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s model, and Winter’s model respectively. Firstly, I will figure out the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of all these four methods, and by comparing...
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...Chapter 3 Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics True/False 1. The major drivers of supply chain performance are facilities, inventory, transportation, and information. Answer: True Difficulty: Moderate 2. The major drivers of supply chain performance are customers, facilities, inventory, transportation, and information. Answer: False Difficulty: Moderate 3. The two major types of facilities are production sites and storage sites. Answer: True Difficulty: Moderate 4. The two major types of facilities are distribution sites and storage sites. Answer: False Difficulty: Moderate 5. Inventory is an important supply chain driver because changing inventory policies can dramatically alter the supply chain’s efficiency and responsiveness. Answer: True Difficulty: Moderate 6. Information is potentially the biggest driver of performance in the supply chain as it directly affects each of the other drivers. Answer: True Difficulty: Easy 7. Information is potentially the biggest driver of performance in the supply chain even though it has little impact on each of the other drivers. Answer: False Difficulty: Easy 8. A facility with little excess capacity will likely be more efficient per unit of product it produces than one with a lot of unused capacity. Answer: True Difficulty: Easy 9. A facility with little...
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...Chapter 3 Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics True/False 1. The major drivers of supply chain performance are facilities, inventory, transportation, and information. Answer: True Difficulty: Moderate 2. The major drivers of supply chain performance are customers, facilities, inventory, transportation, and information. Answer: False Difficulty: Moderate 3. The two major types of facilities are production sites and storage sites. Answer: True Difficulty: Moderate 4. The two major types of facilities are distribution sites and storage sites. Answer: False Difficulty: Moderate 5. Inventory is an important supply chain driver because changing inventory policies can dramatically alter the supply chain’s efficiency and responsiveness. Answer: True Difficulty: Moderate 6. Information is potentially the biggest driver of performance in the supply chain as it directly affects each of the other drivers. Answer: True Difficulty: Easy 7. Information is potentially the biggest driver of performance in the supply chain even though it has little impact on each of the other drivers. Answer: False Difficulty: Easy 8. A facility with little excess capacity will likely be more efficient per unit of product it produces than one with a lot of unused capacity. Answer: True Difficulty: Easy 9. A facility with little...
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...Seasonal Allergies in Dogs - How to Detect and Combat? Spring is around the corner and with the changing season comes the seasonal allergies. Unfortunately, not only humans are prone to seasonal allergies, but dogs too can suffer from it. According to a survey by Novartis Animal Health, over half of the pet owners aren't aware of the fact that their canine friends can also spend the spring season feeling miserable because of pollens and other environmental allergens. Seasonal allergies in dogs can have an adverse effect on his health. In this article, we will discuss the seasonal allergies in dogs, its causes, symptoms, and cures. What are the types of allergies in dogs? There are two different types of allergies in dogs vis-à-vis seasonal allergy and...
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...there a chance that you can get your market share back? Forecasting techniques provide answers to these questions – vital questions to your business. Size your inventories optimally Time is money. Room is money. So what you want to do is use all means at your disposal in order to reduce your stocks – without experiencing any shortages, of course. Forecasting Components Short-Range Forecast Daily operations Medium-range Forecast Used from anywhere from a month up to 1 year Long-range Forecasting More strategic and for over a year Forecast Patterns Trend A gradual long-term up or down movement of demand Random variations Unpredictable movements in demand that follow no pattern Cycle An up and down repetitive movement in demand Seasonal pattern An up and down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically Forms of Forecast Movement Forecasting Methods Qualitative Uses judgement, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts Time series Forecasts are statistical techniques that use historical data Regression Develops a mathematical relationship between forecasted item and factors that cause it to behave the way it does Qualitative Methods Often called “the jury of executive opinion”,...
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...Kai Chin Professor Lassar English 122 March 1, 2015 Unemployment Unemployment can be used to measure the health of an economy and is a key concept in economics, affecting more than just those who are unemployed. Someone who is unable to find work but is still actively searching is considered unemployed. Although, there is a seemingly odd way of knowing what is and what isn’t considered unemployed as well as knowing that there are multiple types of unemployment and unemployment rates. There are four types of unemployment, structural unemployment, frictional unemployment, seasonal unemployment, and cyclical unemployment. All of which are key elements in defining unemployment. Structural unemployment is usually when there is advancement in technology or changes in market conditions that overtake certain jobs in the workforce. It correlates with the mismatch of jobs and workers due to a lack of a skill or simply the wrong area desired for work (Experimental). Structural unemployment depends on the social needs of the economy and dynamic...
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