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Social Security and Emerging Economies

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Introduction

As emerging economies experience growth, they are encountering new challenges in making economic development equitable and sustainable. Increasingly, bringing all parts of society up to minimum standards of living is becoming an issue of social responsibility and political requirement in emerging economies through social security programs. However, emerging economies are facing many constraints in implementing widespread social security programs to affect equality, poverty alleviation, and income security. When considering Social Security for emerging economies, there are two central issues that must be addressed; can emerging economies sustain viable social security systems, and is social security vital to the development of emerging economies. To understand these issues, and possible solutions, it is useful to look towards the established models found in Europe for answers.

Social Security

To analyze the issue at hand, we must first understand the definition of social security, as the benefits offered by the State and society differ from country to country. For example, Social Security is a narrowly defined program in the United States, which offers supplemental income to those of retirement age at 65 and older. However, in Europe, social security encompasses a slate of programs that provide cash transfers and benefits for the aged, unemployed, ill, and poor. These programs are often manifested in the form of pensions, unemployment benefits, and in many countries universal healthcare. For this exercise we will use the broad definition of Social Security defined as programs to “protect the poor and vulnerable and to ensure that they have an acceptable standard of living (Ahmad 106).” The central goals of these programs in advanced economies are to smooth consumption, spread income over the lifespan of a recipient, and guard against deprivations caused by lack of income.

With social security, there are two competing and contrasting principles. The first supports the notion that in a continuously globalizing economy, allocating resources to social welfare negatively affects a country’s industrial and business competiveness. On the other hand, others see social security as not only as social service expenditures leading to public consumption, but an investment in human and social capital (Munday). However, the current literature on social security supports the idea that developing human and social capital is an essential element towards achieving sustainable development in the emerging world (Ahmad).

Models of Social Security in Europe

In the last two centuries, European social security has gone through much evolution. In its nascent stages social security in Europe began as a set of paternalistic programs centered on private charity and poverty relief for the extremely poor, however recipients were stigmatized (Ehtisham). Today, the focus is on universality, “with the aim of maintaining and enhancing the quality of life (Ehtisham 107).” Due to different histories, geographies, political cultures, and other factors there are four broad categories of social security in Europe. Because we are focusing on advanced economies, this list will focus on Western and Northern European nations.

• Nordic Model. Based on the principle of universalism. Services for groups such as children at risk, people with disabilities, and elderly people are available. This model provides a good range and quality of services, is sensitive to gender issues, and pays close attention to user rights. There is a high emphasis placed on reinsertion of individuals into the active labor market, strong unions, and healthcare.

• Means-tested – Beveridge – Model. Mostly associated with the United Kingdom. The state has shrunk its role in service provision and targets services for working people with limited income and dependent services users. Means testing forms the core of this model.

• Continental Model. In place in nations such as Germany, France, and Belgium, this model places emphasis on pension and disability payments, along with strong unions in the labor market.

• Mediterranean Model. Seen mostly in Southern Europe on the Mediterranean Rim, there is a heavy reliance on family-based care for the elderly and poor due to cultural reasons. This system is the youngest of the models and is characterized by strong employment protections and conditioned access to other benefits.

Social Security Expenditures as part of GDP and Compositions by Region

[pic]

Source: Boeri (2002)

The outcomes of the policies have been as different as the nations that implement them. However, the Nordic model has produced the largest decrease in inequality measured by a Gini coefficient and produced lower concerns of job security. This can be seen as a result of relatively higher expenditures on social security and the universalist approach.

Redistributive Efficiency of Social Security Programs in Europe

[pic]

Source: Boeri (2002)

Emerging Economies

For this paper the current IMF definition of emerging economy will be used. This list includes the BRIC nations, Brazil Russia, India, and China, with CIVETS, Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa, along with Argentina, Bulgaria, Chile, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Ukraine, Venezuela, Pakistan, Lithuania, Philippines, and Peru. These countries are characterized by expanding domestic markets and consistent growth (IMF 2012).

The challenges facing such a diverse swath of nations is equally diverse, however there are easily identifiable challenges confronting emerging economies if and when they will implement social security systems.

• First, many nations within the emerging economy cohort possess large informal workforces. This makes it hard to collect revenue to support social services, while at the same time workers are more susceptible to shocks and losses of income without contracts and laws that characterize formal employment. Additionally, informal workers are difficult to target for benefits (Justino).

• Second, the age pyramids in nations like China, India, and Indonesia will undergo significant changes, as populations grow older. This will significantly change how many persons are working in the economy generating income and revenue and those who are not, but drawing benefits in old age.

• Third, inequality in several emerging economies is a substantial obstacle. Formulating programs to address the needs of citizens with widely variable problems is an issue; especially as developing nations often lack administrative capacities and lack of information.

• Fourth, in developing economies, the family and community are the main source of support for the aged. This causes dependency on having many sons and limits the ability for policy and society to lower birthrates. Beyond the family, community-level support is the solution for those that do not have family to support them in old age or poverty. Of course this presents a problem when entire communities, regions, and nations are caught in poverty.

With these challenges it is useful to understand and apply good practices found in European social security systems and to understand which practices are feasible in developing economies and which are not.

Social Security Importance for Emerging Nations

It is increasingly becoming more recognized that pro-growth and pro-poverty alleviation are inseparable in accomplishing development. Not only does social security help relieve poverty constraints, but drives up demand, enlarges markets, and helps produce healthier, better educated, and more empowered citizens and workforces (Hagemejer). The evidence indicates that the positive impact of social security systems in emerging economies is understated (Justino). As a result, social security should not only be viewed as a prescription to the depravities of poverty, but a structural element to increasing macroeconomic growth (MacPherson). There is no doubt that social security and cultivating human capital will not only alleviate poverty, but represent an investment into the most important resources that will ensure growth is prolonged and consistent.

The Role of Government in Provisions of Social Security

As the challenges are daunting for emerging economies, one must ask, even if there is demand for social security programs, can governments provide the supply. Ahmad and others, have argued that social security is not outside the capabilities of low-income countries.

Historically, social security systems are generally aimed at the wage-earning population. An implicit assumption is that a social security system can only be established with a population where there is a sufficient number of regular wage earners. In other words, wage-earning is according to this view a prerequisite for a conventional social security scheme. However, for some nations revenue collection is difficult because of the lack of an established tax base and system (Ahmad).

From an economic point of view public provision of social security can be reasonable if governments are able to take advantage of economies of scales, lower advertising costs, and the ability to utilize central authority to affect change. Based on costing studies, basic social security provisions such as basic childcare, essential healthcare services, and old-age pensions are within the reach of even the poorest nations costing between .6 to 5% of GDP at current levels of revenue generation (Hagemejer). So, it has been shown that social security is not contrary to the current realities of many emerging economies.

China as a Case Study

Because of the diversity of European social security programs and the even higher variability of national characteristics of emerging economies it is useful to utilize a case study to understand the topic at hand. Here, I will briefly examine the viability of application of European social security to China.

China is often a focus of literature on the subject of the social security because of its consistent growth, the size and composition of its population, and sizable informal workforce at approximately 33% of the labor force (ILO 2011). Particularly in China’s case, the age pyramid, and heavy reliance on family provisions, present challenges to government supply of social security. During China’s robust period of growth, it witnessed a substantial drop in absolute poverty, however it has become increasingly unequal (OECD). Because of policy and fertility patterns, China’s age pyramid will go under massive realignment in the coming decades just as its economic size approaches that of the United States. As those of age enter retirement, sufficient revenue will have to be generated if the government takes on the responsibility of providing for those who can not work.

China’s Age Pyramid in 2015 and 2050 Respectively

[pic]

[pic]

Source: PopulationPyramid.net and United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.

Today, China possesses a nascent social security system, however it is characterized as fragmented, limited, and not developmentally-oriented. It lacks focus on gender equality, a viable solution for the growing older population, and generally inadequate (Ngok). Therefore, it is incumbent on the Chinese state to enact reforms and initiatives to achieve equity and universalism.

Here, it is possible for China to borrow from several models of social ecurity. With this in mind I recommend a hybrid system for China:

1. Borrowing from the continental model, as the Chinese population ages, provisions for the elderly will become increasingly important, consequently, it is important to provide provisions for those outside working ages.

2. Emulating part of the Southern European model, family care should be counted as a vital tool for bringing social security for those in need and as a reasonable stop-gap towards formal and government provided benefits.

3. The Nordic system has made great gains in bring equality to the Nordic countries. Because inequality is increasingly becoming and issue in China, there should be special focus on bringing equality to the people of China, as a matter of normative values and reality of the unrest large inequality can cause.

Conclusion

It is difficult to find a one size fits all model for Europe and emerging economies. What we do know is that social security is a vital component of development and macroeconomic strategy. Thus, emerging economies must find strategies that are tailored to their various economic and social needs. Even as conditions in the advanced nations of Europe often vary from those in emerging economies, they can serve as models if policy-makers are able and ready to apply certain aspects with a degree of flexibility. If there is no magic pill to poverty, European models can serve as benchmarks and inspirations to nascent systems around the world.

References

Boeri, Tito. "Let Social Policy Models Compete and Europe Will Win." Transatlantic Perspectives on US-EU Economic Relations: Convergence Conflict and Cooperation. Kennedy School of Government. Harvard University, Cambridge. 11 Apr. 2002. Conference.

Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising: Special Focus: Inequality in Emerging Economies (EEs). Paris: OECD, 2011. Print.

Ahmad, Ehtisham. "Social Security and the Poor: Choices for Developing Countries." The World Bank Research Observer 6.1 (1991): 105-127. Print.

Hagemejer, Krzysztof . Can Low-income Countries Afford Basic Social Security?. Geneva: ILO, 2008. Print.

Justino, Patricia. "Social Security in Developing Countries: Myth or Necessity? Evidence From India." Journal of International Development 19 (2007): 367-382. Print.

Lee, Ngok. What kind of welfare state is emerging in China?. Geneva: UNRISD, 2013. Print.

Munday, Brian. European Social Services: A Map of Characteristics and Trends. Strasbourg: Council of Europe, 2003. Report.

Macpherson, Stewart. "Social Security in Developing Countries." Social Policy & Administration 21.1 (1987): 3-14. Print.

Statistical Update on Employment in the Informal Economy. Geneva: ILO, 2011. Print.

World Economic Outlook Update Population Prospects. Washington DC: IMF, 2012. Print

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: UNDESA, 2012. Print.

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