TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Section 1: Introduction: Foreign Exchange Market Overview 5
Section 2: Technical Analysis in Forex Markets 6
Section 3: Basic Technical Analysis Patterns 9
Section 4: Technical Analysis: Charting Techniques 13
Section 4.1:Cycle based indicators 13
Section 4.1.1: Elliot Wave theory 13
Section 4.2:Momentum Indicators 17
Section 4.2.1:MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence 18
Section 4.2.2:RSI: Relative Strength Index 19
Section 4.3:Trend approach to technical analysis 21
Section 4.3.1: Moving Averages 21
Section 4.4: Chart Based Indicators 23
Section 4.4.1: Candlestick Charts 23
Section 5: Practical Application to Current trends in the Foreign Exchange Market 28
Section 5.1:Cycle Based 28
Section 5.1.1: Elliot wave 28
Section 5.2: Momentum Based 29
Section 5.2.1:Relative Strength Index 29
Section5.2.2: Moving Average Convergence/Divergence 30
Section 5.3: Trend Based 31
Section 5.3.1: Moving averages 31
Section 5.4: Chart Based 36
Section 5.4.1: Candlesticks 36
Section 6: Technical Analysis: Advantages & Disadvantages 38
Section 7: How traders and dealers use Technical Analysis? 39
Section 8: Bibliography 40

List of Graphs and Figures
Figure 1: Technical analysis is based on the premise that markets trend and that those trends tend to persist. 7
Figure 2: Example of a downtrend turning into an uptrend 9
Figure 3: A long term Channel line, support and resistance level 10
Figure 4: head and shoulders pattern. 10
Figure 5: Example of a double top. Sometimes the second peak doesn't quite reach the first peak as in this example. The actual signal was the breaking of support near 44.6 11
Figure 6: Example of a descending triangle. Notice the flat bottom line and the declining upper line. This is usually a bearish pattern. 12
Figure 7: Basic Elliot Wave pattern 14
Figure 8: Expanded Elliot wave pattern 15
Figure 9: Trends and turns 16
Figure 10: MACD Buy-Sell signals 19
Figure 11: RSI Buy- Sell signals 20
Figure 12: Basic Candlestick explained 24
Figure 13: Long and Short Days 24
Figure 14: Shooting Star 26
Figure 15: Harami Pattern 26
Figure 16: Three day candle stick patterns 27
Figure 17: Engulfing Patterns 27
Figure 18: USD-INR Elliot Wave chart 28
Figure 19: RSI Buy - Sell calls for USD- INR 29
Figure 20: MACD Buy- Sell signals 30
Figure 21: Long term Moving Average Trend 31
Figure 22: Double Moving Average trend 32
Figure 23: Triple Moving Average trend 33
Figure 24: MA envelope 34
Figure 25: Bollinger Bands 35
Figure 26: 3 month daily candle stick chart with a 5-day moving average 36

ABSTRACT
This report aims at introducing the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its charting techniques and some of the relevant patterns that help traders forecast trends and take trading decisions. The initial part of the report aims at providing a theoretical base for technical analysis in terms of its use in the foreign exchange market. This is followed by an attempt to identify the important patterns and trends in the most recent charts for the Dollar Rupee exchange rate.

KEY WORDS: Exchange rate, technical analysis, forecasts, charting techniques
JEL Classification: F31, G15 Section 1: Introduction: Foreign Exchange Market Overview
The volume of international transactions has grown enormously since the end of World War II. International trade and investment would not be possible without the ability to buy and sell foreign currencies. Currencies may be bought and sold because no one currency is the acceptable means of payment among countries.
The trading of currencies takes place in the foreign exchange markets whose primary function is to facilitate international trade and investment. In international transactions, at least one party is dealing in a foreign currency. The purpose of forex markets is thus to permit transfers of purchasing power denominated in one currency to another.
Most currency transactions in the forex market are channelled through the worldwide interbank market, the wholesale market in which major banks trade with one another. The foreign exchange market is not a physical place, rather, it is an electronically linked network of banks, foreign exchange brokers, and dealers whose function is to bring together buyers and sellers of foreign exchange. It is not confined to any one country but is dispersed throughout the leading financial centres in the world: London, New York city, Paris, Zurich, Amsterdam, Tokyo, Toronto, etc.
The major participants in the forex markets are the large commercial banks, foreign exchange brokers in the interbank market, commercial customers, primary multinational corporations, and central banks, which intervene from time to time to smooth exchange rate fluctuations or to maintain target exchange rates. Only the head offices or regional offices of major commercial banks are actually market makers-that is, actively deal in foreign exchange for their own accounts. Most small banks typically have a credit line with a large bank or with their home office. The various linkages between banks and their customers are depicted below:

Section 2: Technical Analysis in Forex Markets
The statement "market action discounts everything" forms what is probably the cornerstone of technical analysis. [...] The technician believes that anything that can possibly affect the price--fundamentally, politically, psychologically, or otherwise--is actually reflected in the price of that market."
Murphy (1999)

Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. A technical trading rule (TTR), for example, might suggest buying a currency if its price has risen more than 1% from its value five days earlier. Traders in stock, commodity and foreign exchange markets use such rules widely.The essence of the trade on the basis of this type of analysis of the Forex is to conduct mathematical calculations and the construction of geometric figures that explain what is happening in the market as will be explained in the succeeding sections.

Technical methods date back at least to 1700, but the “Dow Theory,” proposed by Wall Street Journal editors Charles Dow and William Peter Hamilton, popularized them in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. Although modern technical analysis was originally developed in the context of the stock market, its advocates argue that it applies in one form or another to all asset markets. Since the era of floating exchange rates began in the early 1970s, foreign currency traders have widely adopted this approach to trading. At least some technicians clearly believe that the foreign exchange market is particularly prone to trending.

Currencies have the tendency to develop strong trends, stronger than stocks in my opinion because currencies reflect the performance of countries. (Jean-Charles Gand, Société Générale Gestion, in Clements

The basic premise underlying technical analysis is as follows: Market action discounts everything!: This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.

Prices move in trends: Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behaviour that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.

History repeats itself: Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.

Figure 1: Technical analysis is based on the premise that markets trend and that those trends tend to persist.

The skills of a technical analyst are used primarily to help determine the highest-probability reactions to past and current price movement, as well as likely future price movement. Therefore, technical analysis is less about actually predicting the future and more about finding high-probability potential opportunities to trade in the financial markets.

Technical analysis used today has its origins in the famous Dow Theory. In the words of Charles Dow:

“The market is always considered as having three movements, all going at the same time. The first is the narrow movement from day to day. The second is the short swing, running from two weeks to a month or more; the third is the main movement, covering at least four years in its duration.”

Proponents of the Dow Theory refer to the three movements as:

Daily fluctuations that are random day to day wiggles. Secondary movements or corrections that may last a few weeks to some months; and Primary trends representing the bull and the bear phases of the market.

An upward primary trend represents a bull market and a downward primary trend represents a bear market. A major upward move is set to occur when the high point of each rally is higher than the high point of the preceding rally. And the low point of each rally is lower than the low point of the preceding rally. The opposite holds true for a major downward trend.

The secondary movement represents a correction. They represent adjustments to excesses that may have occurred in the primary movements

Section 2.1: The Need for Technical analysis in the Foreign exchange Markets

The widespread use of technical analysis in foreign exchange (and other) markets is puzzling because it implies that either traders are irrationally making decisions on useless information or that past prices contain useful information for trading. The latter possibility would contradict the “efficient markets hypothesis,” which holds that no trading strategy should be able to generate unusual profits on publicly available information—such as past prices—except by bearing unusual risk. And the observed level of risk-adjusted profitability measures market efficiency. Therefore much research effort has been directed toward determining whether technical analysis is indeed profitable or not. One of the earliest studies, by Fama and Blume (1966), found no evidence that a particular class of TTRs could earn abnormal profits in the stock market.

An important area of research on technical analysis has focused on documenting how and to what extent it is actually used in foreign exchange markets. This research is primarily conducted through surveys of technicians. Allen and Taylor (1990) and Taylor and Allen (1992) conduct the first such surveys on chief foreign exchange dealers in London. The responses established that almost all traders in the London foreign exchange market use technical analysis to some degree and that they tend to combine it with fundamental analysis. So there is not an exclusive reliance on either approach to trading. In addition, the authors find that the relative weight attached to technical analysis is greater at shorter horizons.

Section 2.2: Technical versus Fundamental analysis

While technical analysis concentrates on the study of market action, fundamental analysis focuses on the economic forces of supply and demand that cause prices to move higher, lower, or stay the same.

The fundamental approach examines all of the relevant factors affecting the price of a market in order to determine the intrinsic value of that market. The intrinsic value is what the fundamentals indicate something is actually worth based on the law of supply and demand. If this intrinsic value is under the current market price, then the market is overpriced and should be sold. If market price is below the intrinsic value, then the market is undervalued and should be bought.

Both of these approaches to market forecasting attempt to solve the same problem, that is, to determine the direction prices are likely to move. They just approach the problem from different directions. The fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement, while the technician studies the effect. The technician, of course, believes that the effect is all that he or she wants or needs to know and that the reasons, or the causes, are unnecessary. The fundamentalist always has to know why.

Section 3: Basic Technical Analysis Patterns

The concept of trend is absolutely essential to the technical approach to market analysis. All of the tools used by the chartist support and resistance levels and price patterns, etc.-have the sole purpose of helping to measure the trend of the market for the purpose of participating in that trend.

Many different kinds of patterns have been identified which are regularly used by technical analysts. The objective is to predict the major components of the trend: its direction, its level and the timing. Some of the most widely known include:

Uptrend would be defined as a series of successively higher peaks and troughs Downtrend is just the opposite, a series of declining peaks and troughs Horizontal peaks and troughs would identify a sideways price trend. This type of sideways action reflects a period of equilibrium in the price level where the forces of supply and demand are in a state of relative balance

Figure 2: Example of a downtrend turning into an uptrend

Support / Resistance levels
The Support level is the lowest price an instrument trades at over a period of time. The longer the price stays at a particular level, the stronger the support at that level. On the chart this is price level under the market where buying interest is sufficiently strong to overcome selling pressure. Some traders believe that the stronger the support at a given level, the less likely it will break below that level in the future. The Resistance level is a price at which an instrument or market can trade, but which it cannot exceed, for a certain period of time. On the chart this is a price level over the market where selling pressure overcomes buying pressure, and a price advance is turned back.

The channel line, or the return line as it is sometimes called, is another useful variation of the trendline technique. Sometimes prices trend between two parallel lines-the basic trendline and the channel line.

Figure 3: A long term Channel line, support and resistance level Head and Shoulder pattern
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation. It is formed by a peak (shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), and then another lower peak (shoulder). A “neckline” is drawn by connecting the lowest points of the two troughs. The slope of this line can either be up or down. When the slope is down, it produces a more reliable signal.

Figure 4: head and shoulders pattern.

In this example, we can visibly see the head and shoulders pattern. The head is the 2nd peak and is the highest point in the pattern. The two shoulders also form peaks but do not exceed the height of the head. The head and shoulder pattern represents a bearish development. If the price falls below the neckline, a price decline is expected. Hence, it is a signal to sell.

Double Top/Double Bottom
For obvious reasons, the top is often referred to as an "M" and the bottom as a "W."The general characteristics of a double top are similar to that of the head and shoulders except that only two peaks appear instead of three. In an uptrend (as shown below)the market sets a new high at point A, and then declines to point B. So far, everything is proceeding as expected in a normal uptrend. The next rally to point C, however, is unable to penetrate the previous peak at A on a closing basis and begins to fall back again. A potential double top has been set up.

Figure 5: Example of a double top. Sometimes the second peak doesn't quite reach the first peak as in this example. The actual signal was the breaking of support near 44.6

Triangles There are three types of triangles-symmetrical, ascending, and descending. Each type of triangle has a slightly different shape and has different forecasting implications.

The symmetrical triangle (or the coil) is usually a continuation pattern. It represents a pause in the existing trend after which the original trend is resumed.

The ascending and descending triangles are variations of the symmetrical, but have different forecasting implications. The upper trendline is flat, while the lower line is rising. This pattern indicates that buyers are more aggressive than sellers. It is considered a bullish pattern and is usually resolved with a breakout to the upside.

Both the ascending and descending triangles differ from the symmetrical in a very important sense. No matter where in the trend structure the ascending or descending triangles appear, they have very definite forecasting implications. The ascending triangle is bullish and the descending triangle is bearish

The figure below shows a descending triangle. This pattern indicates that sellers are more aggressive than buyers, and is usually resolved on the downside. The downside signal is registered by a decisive close under the lower trendline.

Figure 6: Example of a descending triangle. Notice the flat bottom line and the declining upper line. This is usually a bearish pattern.

Section 4: Technical Analysis: Charting Techniques
Various charting techniques used in technical analysis can be categorized as follows.each will be explained in the succeeding sections: Cycle based: Example: Elliot Wave.

Momentum based: Example: MASD, RSI

Trend based: Example: Moving Averages

Chart based: Example: Candlestick, etc

Section 4.1:Cycle based indicators

A cycle is a term to indicate repeating patterns of market movement, specific to recurrent events, such as seasons, elections etc. Many markets have a tendency to move in cyclical patterns. Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market pattern.

Section 4.1.1: Elliot Wave theory

"The Wave Principle" is Ralph Nelson Elliott's discovery that social, or crowd, behaviour trends and reverses in recognizable patterns. Using stock market data as his main research tool, Elliott discovered that the ever-changing path of stock market prices reveals a structural design that in turn reflects a basic harmony found in nature. From this discovery, he developed a rational system of market analysis.

Elliott isolated thirteen patterns of movement, or "waves," that recur in market price data and are repetitive in form, but are not necessarily repetitive in time or amplitude. He named, defined and illustrated the patterns. He then described how these structures link together to form larger versions of those same patterns, how they in turn link to form identical patterns of the next larger size, and so on.

In a nutshell, then, the Wave Principle is a catalog of price patterns and an explanation of where these forms are likely to occur in the overall path of market development. Elliott's descriptions constitute a set of empirically derived rules and guidelines for interpreting market action. Elliott claimed predictive value for The Wave Principle, which now bears the name, "The Elliott Wave Principle."

Elliott was very much influenced by the Dow Theory, which has much in common with the Wave Principle. Elliott goes on to say that the Wave Principle was a much needed complement to the Dow Theory.

Basic Tenets of Elliott wave principle

There are three important aspects of wave theory-pattern, ratio, and time-in that order of importance. Pattern refers to the wave patterns or formations that comprise the most important element of the theory. Ratio analysis is useful in determining retracement points and price objectives by measuring the relationships between the different waves. Finally, time relationships also exist and can be used to confirm the wave patterns and ratios, but are considered by some Elliotticians to be less reliable in market forecasting.

Interpretation

The underlying forces behind the Elliott Wave Theory are of building up and tearing down. The basic concepts of the Elliott Wave Theory are listed below.

Action is followed by reaction. There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a 5-3 move). A 5-3 move completes a cycle. This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave. The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary. The basic pattern is made up of eight waves (five up and three down) which are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, and c on the following chart.

Figure 7: Basic Elliot Wave pattern

Waves 1, 3, and 5 are called impulse waves. Waves 2 and 4 are called corrective waves. Waves a, b, and c correct the main trend made by waves 1 through 5. The main trend is established by waves 1 through 5 and can be either up or down. Waves a, b, and c always move in the opposite direction of waves 1 through 5.
Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave within a wave count contains a complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle. The longest wave count is called the Grand Supercycle. Grand Supercycle waves are comprised of Supercycles, and Supercycles are comprised of Cycles. This process continues into Primary, Intermediate, Minute, Minuette, and Sub-minuette waves. The following chart shows how 5-3 waves are comprised of smaller cycles.

Figure 8: Expanded Elliot wave pattern

This chart contains the identical pattern shown in the preceding chart (now displayed using dotted lines), but the smaller cycles are also displayed. For example, you can see that impulse wave labeled 1 in the preceding chart is comprised of five smaller waves.

Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical foundation for the Elliott Wave Theory. Briefly, the Fibonacci number sequence is made by simply starting at 1 and adding the previous number to arrive at the new number (i.e., 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, etc).

Each of the cycles that Elliott defined are comprised of a total wave count that falls within the Fibonacci number sequence. For example, the preceding chart shows two Primary waves (an impulse wave and a corrective wave), eight intermediate waves (the 5-3 sequence shown in the first chart), and 34 minute waves (as labeled).The numbers 2, 8, and 34 fall within the Fibonacci numbering sequence. Elliott Wave practitioners use their determination of the wave count in combination with the Fibonacci numbers to predict the time span and magnitude of future market moves ranging from minutes and hours to years and decades.

There is general agreement among Elliott Wave practitioners that the most recent Grand Supercycle began in 1932 and that the final fifth wave of this cycle began at the market bottom in 1982. However, there has been much disparity since 1982. Many heralded the arrival of the October 1987 crash as the end of the cycle. The strong recovery that has since followed has caused them to reevaluate their wave counts. Herein, lies the weakness of the Elliott Wave Theory—its predictive value is dependent on an accurate wave count. Determining where one wave starts and another wave ends can be extremely subjective.

Trends and Turns

The analyst’s first task is to look at charts of market action and identify any completed five-wave and three-wave structures. Only then can he interpret where the market is and where it’s likely to go. Figure 9: Trends and turns

Say we’re studying a market that has reached the point shown in the above figure. So far we’ve seen a five-wave move up, followed by a three-wave move down. But this is not the only possible interpretation. It is also possible that wave (2) hasn’t ended yet; it could develop into a more complex three-wave structure before wave (3) gets underway. Another possibility is that the waves labeled (1) and (2) are actually waves (A) and (B) of a developing three-wave upward correction within a larger impulsive downtrend, as shown in the “Alternate” interpretation at the bottom of the chart. According to each of these interpretations though, the next imminent movement is likely to be upward.

This illustrates an important point concerning the Wave Principle. It does not provide certainty about any one market outcome. Instead, it gives you an objective means of determining the probability of a future direction for the market. At any time, two or more valid wave interpretations usually exist. So it’s important for the investor to carefully assess the probability of each interpretation. View the Wave Principle as your road map to the market and your investment idea as a trip. You start the trip with a specific plan in mind, but conditions along the way may force you to alter your course. Alternate counts are simply side roads that sometimes end up being the best path. Elliott’s highly specific rules keep the number of valid interpretations to a minimum. The analyst usually considers as “preferred” the one that satisfies the largest number of guidelines.

The top “alternate” is the one that satisfies the next largest number of guidelines, and so on.
Alternates are an essential part of using the Wave Principle. They are not “bad” or “rejected” wave interpretations. Rather, they are valid interpretations that are given lower probability while the count works itself out. If the market doesn’t follow the original preferred scenario, the top alternate usually becomes the preferred.

Elliott’s rules give specific “make-or-break” levels for a given interpretation. In the figure, for example, if the move labeled wave (2) continues below the level of the beginning of wave (1), then the originally preferred interpretation would be instantly invalidated. By eliminating subjectivity, the rules help you firm up your investment strategy and reduce your risk.

Fibonacci ratios and retracements apply to both price and time, although the former is considered to be the more reliable. Fibonacci sequence which begins with the number 1 and in which each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 and so on. The sequence in turn gives rise to several unique ratios, including .618, .382 and 1.618 — the Golden Ratio. These ratios exist throughout nature, in everything from population growth to the physical structure within the human brain, the DNA helix, many plants and even the cosmos itself. The following are among the most commonly used Fibonacci ratios: One of the three impulse waves sometimes extends. The other two are equal in time and magnitude. If wave 5 extends, waves 1 and 3 should be about equal. If wave 3 extends, waves 1 and S tend toward equality. A minimum target for the top of wave 3 can be obtained by multiplying the length of wave 1 by 1.618 and adding that total to the bottom of 2. The top of wave 5 can be approximated by multiplying wave 1 by 3.236 (2xl.618) and adding that value to the top or bottom of wave 1 for maximum and minimum targets. Where waves 1 and 3 are about equal, and wave 5 is expected to extend, a price objective can be obtained by measuring the distance from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3, multiplying by 1.618, and adding the result to the bottom of 4. For corrective waves, in a normal 5-3-5 zig-zag correction, wave c is often about equal to the length of wave a. Another way to measure the possible length of wave c is to multiply .618 by the length of wave a and subtract that result from the bottom of wave a. In the case of a flat 3-3-5 correction, where the b wave reaches or exceeds the top of wave a, wave c will be about 1.618 the length of a. In a symmetrical triangle, each successive wave is related to its previous wave by about .618.

Elliott had two chief insights concerning Fibonacci relationships within waves. First, corrective waves tend to retrace prior impulse waves of the same degree in Fibonacci proportion. For example, wave (2) in the figure retraces 38% of wave (1).That’s a common relationship. Other frequent wave relationships are 50% and 62%. Second, impulse waves of the same degree within a larger impulse sequence tend to be related to one another in Fibonacci proportion.

Section 4.2:Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given period of time period. Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is highest at the beginning of a trend and lowest at trend turning points. Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, it signals an end of movement in that direction. If momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in direction. A couple of technical analysis methods based on momentum described below are MACD & RSI.

Section 4.2.1:MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Overview

The MACD ("Moving Average Convergence/Divergence") is a trend following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD was developed by Gerald Appel. The MACD is the difference between a 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day exponential moving average, called the "signal" (or "trigger") line is plotted on top of the MACD to show buy/sell opportunities. (Appel specifies exponential moving averages as percentages. Thus, he refers to these three moving averages as 7.5%, 15%, and 20% respectively.)

Interpretation

The MACD proves most effective in wide-swinging trading markets. There are three popular ways to use the MACD: crossovers, overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences.
Crossovers
The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line. Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line. It is also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero.
Overbought/Oversold Conditions
The MACD is also useful as an overbought/oversold indicator. When the shorter moving average pulls away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to more realistic levels. MACD overbought and oversold conditions exist vary from security to security.
Divergences
An indication that an end to the current trend may be near occurs when the MACD diverges from the security. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while prices fail to reach new lows. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively

Figure 10: MACD Buy-Sell signals

Calculation

The MACD is calculated by subtracting the value of a 26-day exponential moving average from a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day dotted exponential moving average of the MACD (the "signal" line) is then plotted on top of the MACD.

Section 4.2.2:RSI: Relative Strength Index

Overview

The Relative Strength Index ("RSI") is a popular oscillator. It was first introduced by Welles Wilder in an article in Commodities (now known as Futures) Magazine in June, 1978. Step-by-step instructions on calculating and interpreting the RSI are also provided in Mr. Wilder's book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. The name "Relative Strength Index" is slightly misleading as the RSI does not compare the relative strength of two securities, but rather the internal strength of a single security. A more appropriate name might be "Internal Strength Index."
Interpretation

When Wilder introduced the RSI, he recommended using a 14-day RSI. Since then, the 9-day and 25-day RSIs have also gained popularity. The fewer days used to calculate the RSI, the more volatile the indicator.
The RSI is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. A popular method of analyzing the RSI is to look for a divergence in which the security is making a new high, but the RSI is failing to surpass its previous high. This divergence is an indication of an impending reversal. When the RSI then turns down and falls below its most recent trough, it is said to have completed a "failure swing." The failure swing is considered a confirmation of the impending reversal. In Mr. Wilder's book, he discusses five uses of the RSI in analyzing commodity charts. These methods can be applied to other security types as well. Tops and Bottoms:
The RSI usually tops above 70 and bottoms below 30. It usually forms these tops and bottoms before the underlying price chart. Chart Formations:
The RSI often forms chart patterns such as head and shoulders or triangles that may or may not be visible on the price chart. Failure Swings:
This is where the RSI surpasses a previous high (peak) or falls below a recent low (trough). Support and Resistance:
The RSI shows, sometimes more clearly than price themselves, levels of support and resistance. Divergences:
As discussed above, divergences occur when the price makes a new high (or low) that is not confirmed by a new high (or low) in the RSI. Prices usually correct and move in the direction of the RSI.

Figure 11: RSI Buy- Sell signals

Calculation
The RSI is a fairly simple formula, but is difficult to explain without pages of examples. Refer to Wilder's book for additional calculation information. The basic formula is: RSI=100- 100/(1+RS) where RS is the average of N days up closes divided by average of N days down closes and N is a predetermined number of days.

Section 4.3:Trend approach to technical analysis

A trend refers to the direction of exchange rates. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an uptrend (bullish) while falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend (bearish). Breaking of a trendline indicates a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs indicate a ranging market.

Moving averages based analysis is used to smoothen rate information in order to confirm the trends and support-resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy. Recognizing a trend can be done using standard deviation which is a measure of volatility. Bollinger bands illustrate trends with this approach. When markets become more volatile, bands widen, while during less volatile periods, bands move closer to the average and hence contract.
Section 4.3.1: Moving Averages

Moving Average method of Technical Analysis is a perfectly structured tool that follows the old saying of successful trading – “Let profit run, while cutting losses”. The tool is an essentially trend following device and is used extensively to identify when a new signal has begun or an old signal has reversed. The Moving Average at best just indicates a signal change, following the leads from the past data and it is generally used in conjunction with other technical analysis devices to make a trading decision in the Forex Market.

The Concept

Mathematically, the Moving Average is a simple averaging system where the exchange rates over a fixed period are averaged out. The average keeps on moving in the sense that for the calculation of new average, the earliest rate is removed and the latest rate included maintaining the constant length for the period.

Types of Moving Average

Moving Average is a smoothening device which by averaging the data makes it easier to view the underlying trend. There are different types of Moving Average based on the technique of the noise reduction. Though the logic is same for every case – Averaging & Smoothening Rates Simple Moving Average – In financial applications a simple moving average (SMA) is the unweighted mean of the previous n data points. An example of a simple unweighted running mean for a 10-day sample of closing price is the mean of the previous 10 days' closing prices. If those prices are then the formula is Linearly Weighting Moving Average - In technical analysis of FOREX data, a weighted moving average (WMA) has the specific meaning of weights that decrease in arithmetical progression. In an n-day WMA the latest day has weight n, the second latest n − 1, etc, down to one.

Exponential Moving Average - An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of filter that applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each older data point decreases exponentially, never reaching zero.
The EMA for a series Y may be calculated recursively: S1 = Y1 for where : The coefficient α represents the degree of weighting decrease, a constant smoothing factor between 0 and 1. A higher α discounts older observations faster. Alternatively, α may be expressed in terms of N time periods, where α = 2/(N+1). For example, N = 19 is equivalent to α = 0.1. The half-life of the weights (the interval over which the weights decrease by a factor of two) is approximately N/2.8854 (within 1% if N > 5). Yt is the observation at a time period t. St is the value of the EMA at any time period t
Other than the above three types, there are a couple of more Moving Average methods – Least – square MA & Adaptive MA. These methods are more complex in nature and not very popular among the common traders.
Key Parameters of MA

While performing a MA analysis over the exchange rate, it is important for an analyst to decide on the below mentioned criteria.

Length of Period

While there are a lot of theories for deciding the length of the period to be averaged out, the decision of choosing a particular factor is based on the following factors:

Time Frame of the Trade :The length of the MA should ideally be in synch with the time frame for which a trader is eying the market. For example, a day trader will use a much shorter average than a short-term trader Purpose of the Transaction: If the purpose is long term investment then identifying a long term trend would be ideal. Depending on this a period can be long, medium or short term.
The decision on the period also depends on the kind of the chart – whether it is daily/weekly/monthly basis and so on.
Generally the popular harmonics used as periods are 5, 10, 20 & 40. Another common practice is to use the numbers from Fibonacci Series. The Fibonacci numbers have proven quite successful over the years and they find their justification in the Elliott Wave Principle.

Longer Period vs Shorter Period

The longer averages work better as long as the trend remains in force, but a shorter average is better when the trend is in the process of reversing. A shorter average gives earlier signals. The longer average is slower, but more reliable. Thus, the trade off while making a choice of the period length is that a shorter trend follows market more closely while a longer trend is more reliable.

Rate used for calculation

While choosing the Rate to be averaged, a number of combinations can be formed depending on high, low, open or close rates.
In sum, most common methods for calculating moving averages are calculating them from: Close (by far the most popular) Average of high and low = (H+L)/2 Average of high, low, and close, also called typical price = (H+L+C)/3 Average of open, high, low, and close = (O+H+L+C)/4
The decision on the Rate to be considered is in fact more subjective than length of the period. The most common method includes using closing price or average of high and low. Again the choice depends on the individual investor’s preference and strategy. For example in case of intraday transactions, the closing price is less significant. In most cases the length of moving average period influences the behaviour of the moving average much more than which price is used for its calculation.
With improvement in technology and availability of information, some investors actually look forward to Volume of Trade to detect the trend. For such investors, the trend of the Exchange Rate itself becomes irrelevant.

Section 4.4: Chart Based Indicators

Forex charts are based on market action involving exchange rates. Charts help to visually analyze market conditions, assess and create forecasts and identify behaviour patterns. They present the behaviour of currency exchange rates over time. Rates are measured on the vertical axis and time is measured on the horizontal axis. The technical analyst analyses the micro environment, trying to match the actual occurrence with known patterns.
The appropriate time scale to be used on the chart depends on the trader’s strategy. Short range investor would probably select a day chart (units of hours/minutes) while a medium/long range investor would use weekly/monthly charts.
Section 4.4.1: Candlestick Charts

Candlestick charts track the movement of the prices of securities or the exchange rates. These charts are easier to read and can be understood at a glance since they are visually more appealing. The information displayed is more easily interpreted and understood.

The figure above shows how a candlestick chart is made. The rectangle represents the difference between the open and close price for the day, and is called the body. Notice that the body can be either black or white. A white body (or not filled) means that the close price was greater (higher) than the open price. The black body means that the close price was lower than the open price. The small lines above and below the body are referred to as wicks or hairs or shadows.
Thus, when we are drawing the chart for USD/INR exchange rate, a higher price corresponds to a higher exchange rate while a lower price corresponds to a lower exchange rate when the rate is quoted in direct method.
Interpretation of candlesticks

Different body/shadow combinations have different meanings. Days in which the difference between the open and close value is great are called Long Days. Likewise, days in which the
Difference between the open and close value is small, are called Short Days.

The size being referred to here is the size of the rectangle which does not include the wicks.
Spinning Tops are days in which the candlesticks have small bodies with upper and lower shadows that are of greater length than that of the body. The body color is relatively unimportant in spinning top candlesticks. These candlesticks are considered as days of indecision.
When the open rate and the close rate are equal, they are called Doji lines. Doji candlesticks can have shadows of varying length. When referring to Doji candlesticks, there is some consideration as to whether the open and close rate must be exactly equal. This is a time when the rates must be almost equal, especially when dealing with large rate movements. There are different Doji candlesticks that are important. The Long-legged Doji has long upper and lower shadows and reflects considerable indecision on the part of market participants. The Gravestone Doji has only a long upper shadow and no lower shadow. The longer the upper shadow, more bearish is the interpretation. The Dragonfly Doji is the opposite of the Gravestone Doji, the lower shadow is long and there is no upper shadow. It is usually considered quite bullish.

A few Candlestick patterns

Dark Cloud Cover
This is a two day reversal pattern that has bearish implications. The first day of this pattern is a long white candlestick. This reflects the current trend of the market and helps confirm the uptrend (or rupee depreciation) to traders. The next day opens above the high rate of the previous day. However, trading for the rest of the day is lower with a closing rate at least below the midpoint of the body of the first day. This is a significant blow to the bullish mentality and will force many to exit the market. Since the closing rate is below the opening rate on the second day, the body is black. This is the dark cloud referred to in the name.

Piercing Line
The opposite of the Dark Cloud Cover, the Piercing Line, has bullish implications. The scenario is quite similar, but opposite. A downtrend is in place, the first candlestick is a long black day which solidifies traders' confidence in the downtrend. The next day, exchange rates open at a new low and then trade higher all day and close above the midpoint of the first candlestick's body. This offers a significant change to the downtrend mentality and many will reverse or exit their positions.

Evening Star and Morning Star
The Evening Star and its cousin, the Morning Star, are two powerful reversal candle patterns. These are both three day patterns that work exceptionally well. The Evening Star is a bearish reversal candle pattern. The first day of this pattern is a long white candlestick which fully enforces the current uptrend or a depreciating rupee. On the open of the second day, prices gap up above the body of the first day. Trading on this second day is somewhat restricted and the close price is near the open price while remaining above the body of the first day. The body for the second day is small. This type of day following a long day is referred to as a Star pattern. A Star is a small body day that gaps away from a long body day. The third and last day of this pattern opens with a gap below the body of the star and closes lower with the close price below the midpoint of the first day.

Shooting Star A single day pattern that can appear in an uptrend. It opens higher, trades much higher, then closes near its open. The long upper wick of the candlestick pattern indicates that the buyers drove prices up at some point during the period in which the candle was formed but encountered selling pressure which drove prices back down for the period to close near to where they opened. As this occurred in an uptrend the selling pressure is seen as a potential reversal sign. When encountering this pattern traders will look for a lower open on the next period before considering the pattern valid and potentially including it in their trading strategy.

Figure 14: Shooting Star Harami A two day pattern that has a small body day completely contained within the range of the previous body, and is of the opposite color.

Figure 15: Harami Pattern Three Black Crows:
A bearish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long black bodies where each day closes at or near its low and opens within the body of the previous day.

Three White Soldiers:
A bullish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long white bodies. Each should open within the previous body and the close should be near the high of the day.

Figure 16: Three day candle stick patterns Engulfing Pattern:
A reversal pattern that can be bearish or bullish, depending upon whether it appears at the end of an uptrend (bearish engulfing pattern) or a downtrend (bullish engulfing pattern). The first day is characterized by a small body, followed by a day whose body completely engulfs the previous day's body.

Figure 17: Engulfing Patterns

Section 5: Practical Application to Current trends in the Foreign Exchange Market

Research Methodology

We used the charts feature available at http://www.forexpros.com/ to plot the Dollar Rupee movement over the last one year. Certain inbuilt features available for drawing candlestick, MACD, RSI etc have been used .Then we have made an attempt at applying the various techniques which yield technical indicators like momentum based, cycle based, chart based and moving average based indicators, all of which have been described before. We have tried to identify potential buy-sell points at different times of the year for USD-INR movement as indicated by the different indicators under the different methods.

Section 5.1:Cycle Based

Section 5.1.1: Elliot wave

Figure 18: USD-INR Elliot Wave chart

The above chart shows the Elliot wave 5-3 pattern for the US dollar – Indian Rupee movement for a period between October and December, 2010. The Elliot wave pattern as highlighted in red started around the 5th of November and completed the entire cycle around 10th of December. As we can see, the wave 1 which started out on 5th November from Rs.43.9 /$ rallied to around 44.30 within the week and the paused for a while and declining a little but not below the Fibonacci retracement levels forming the wave 2. Then there was a rally which formed the wave3 and as generally expected is the biggest move in the Elliot’s wave formation. Dollar continued to appreciate for the entire week before it paused around the 17th November to retrace a little and form the wave4. Then the uptrend continued post that though at a slower pace than wave3 to form wave5. The reversal of wave 4 and the initiation of wave5 would have been a good opportunity to buy US dollars and hold keeping a tight stop-loss so that when the wave5 trend reverses, you can immediately exit the trade.
Around the end of November, the wave5 reversed to form the top and the waves a, b and c. A trader who would have identified the 5 wave pattern on the uptrend could have clearly sold dollar and brought rupees at the onset of the end of wave5.
Section 5.2: Momentum Based

Section 5.2.1:Relative Strength Index

Figure 19: RSI Buy - Sell calls for USD- INR

The above graph dates back to end of March, 2011 to May, 2011. Based on a momentum indicator like RSI a trader could have taken buy and sell calls and which would have proved fruitful as well. Looking closely, we can see that the RSI index value went below a value of 30 and it was also below the 9-day moving average on 7th April, 2011. This is clearly a buy signal for the trader to buy dollar and sell Rupee at Rs. 44.050/$ level. Post this buy call, we see that the RSI index value remains in the band between 30 and 70 till about 24th May when USD-INR hits Rs. 45.25/$. At this point the RSI index value crosses the threshold of 70 and as it also lies above the 9 day moving average, signaling a sell dollar and buy rupee signal. As we can see that this was in fact the reversal of a trend and hence the trader would have benefited in this case as well.

Section5.2.2: Moving Average Convergence/Divergence

Figure 20: MACD Buy- Sell signals

The above graph shows the USD-INR movement from April 2010, to January 2011. Now for MACD, we generally indicators like the crossing of the MACD over the signal line formed by the 9 day Exponential moving average and the crossing of MACD over the zero line. Around 26 May, 2010 the MACD crossed over the signal line and if the trader taking a cautious approach waited a little longer till the MACD crossed the zero line, then he could have bought dollars and sold rupee, and this trade would have ended positive provided the trader exited his position at reversal using stop loss.
MACD also can give false signals sometimes and this is indicated by the Sell dollar signal generated around the end of July, 2010. The trader hence has to use stop loss effectively while dealing with MACD as a momentum indicator. Going ahead if we see that around the end of August, a definitive sell dollar signal was generated and a trader who would have used this would have benefited immensely as rupee appreciated from Rs. 46.60 to about Rs.44.085.

Section 5.3: Trend Based

Section 5.3.1: Moving averages
Note: The signals for BUY and SELL as explained below is to BUY/SELL the Dollar

Market Type

It is not recommended to trade only according to the moving averages movements and without using any other indicator. A MA indicator works best for a Trending Market and they perform very poorly especially in the Ranging Market – where market gets choppy and trade sideways for a period of time.

How to Use MA

As already stated, the MA indicator is used in conjunction with other techniques. Based on this concept, there are few popular variations in the market that are listed below:
Use of Single / Double/ Triple Averages

Single MA: The moving average is plotted on the bar chart in its appropriate trading day along with that day’s rate action. When the closing rate moves above the moving average, a BUY signal is generated. A SELL signal is given when rate move below the moving average. Generally used averages are over 5/10 day period (short term) and over 50 day period (long term).

Figure 21: Long term Moving Average Trend
The above chart shows the trade off between a long term & a short term moving average. While a short term MA captures the trend quickly (Oval box in the chart), it does by losing out on the reliability (Rectangle box in the chart)

Double MA: Two moving averages are plotted on the bar chart – one short and one long. Figure 22: Double Moving Average trend A BUY signal is produced when the shorter average crosses above the longer one while a SELL signal is produced when the shorter average crosses below the longer one. Hence this is also called as Double Crossover Method.

Triple MA: An extension of Double MA method, here three MAs are plotted on the chart – short, medium and long trend. The triple crossover method that is used ensures more reliable buy/sell signal. These three moving averages make an indicator with each other known as Alligator.

A strong BUY signal is produced when the short term trend (green signal in the chart) crosses above both medium (red signal in the chart) and long term (blue signal in the chart) trend (Shown circled in the left oval). While a weak BUY signal is produced in case it crosses only medium term but not the long term. The SELL signal also follows the same pattern, difference being that the crossing of the short term is below and not above (shown circled in the right oval). Double & Triple MA are especially helpful in avoiding wrong signals in ranging markets.

Moving Average Envelopes

In a MA Envelope, the usefulness of a single moving average can be enhanced by surrounding it with envelopes. Generally a fixed percentage is used for creating the boundaries of the envelope. In case of short term trend, 3% envelope is typically used while in case of longer trends 5% envelope is typically used. Figure 24: MA envelope

The envelopes produce a warning signal to the traders in case the prices overextend in either direction from the moving average line. The Two Red Arrows in the above chart are the warning signal and indicate the traders to sell/buy. The envelope gives indication of volatility, though it is not as good as Bollinger Bands.
Bollinger Bands
Two trading bands are placed around a moving average similar to the envelope technique. Except that Bollinger Bands are placed two standard deviations above and below the moving average, which is usually 20 days. The Bollinger Band produces two kinds of signals on overextension of prices- Overbought: When the prices touch the upper band. Oversold: When the prices touch the lower band. Figure 25: Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands in the above chart display the Oversold & Overbought positions. At the same time these bands also give a measure of the volatility. The length of the LEFT BOX is far higher than the length of the RIGHT BOX. Since the band range is dependent on the standard deviation, it can be fairly deduced that the market was highly volatile in Nov’10 as compared to Jun’11. Generally in a trending market, when the price crosses below the middle band, the target price is the lower band limit while if the price crosses above the middle band then the target price becomes the upper band limit.

Pros & Cons of using Moving Averages

One of the great advantages of using moving averages is that they trade in the direction of the trend. It provides specific buy and sell signals based to the traders. But as already mentioned they work best when market is following a trend & perform very poorly in a choppy market.
The fact that they do not work that well for significant periods of time, however, is one very compelling reason why it is dangerous to rely too heavily on the moving average technique. Hence the Moving Average Analysis typically is complemented with these tools – Oscillators Elliott Wave Theory Market Sentiment Analysis

Section 5.4: Chart Based

Section 5.4.1: Candlesticks

Figure 26: 3 month daily candle stick chart with a 5-day moving average
The above chart traces the 3 month daily exchange rates with the red line plotting the 5 day moving averages. The data was procured for 3 months from 20th March 2011 to 20th June 2011. We have identified a few patterns and tried to explain the trend in the movement of the exchange rates using them.

Engulfing:
This pattern consists of two candles as shown encircled in a rectangle in the above chart. The first day is a narrow range candle that closes down up the day. The buyers are still in control but because it is a narrow range candle, the buyers are not very aggressive. The second day is a wide range candle that "engulfs" the body of the first candle and closes near the bottom of the range. The sellers hold an upper hand here. Sellers now are ready to take control. Engulfing is a reversal pattern. We see from the chart that the rally (or a depreciation of the Rupee) has been pulled back although for a short period of time.

Dark Cloud Cover:
This is a two day reversal pattern that has bearish implications. The first day of this pattern is a long white candlestick. This reflects the current trend of the market and helps confirm the uptrend (or rupee depreciation) to traders. The next day opens above the high rate of the previous day. However, trading for the rest of the day is lower with a closing rate at least below the midpoint of the body of the first day. This is a significant blow to the bullish mentality and will force many to exit the market. Thus, those traders who were in long dollar position expecting rupee to depreciate, will lose out when the rupee starts to appreciate on the second day. Since the closing rate is below the opening rate on the second day, the body is black. The traders identify this pattern as a reversal pattern and will try to move out of the position to cut their losses.

Shooting Star:
It is a single day pattern that appears in an uptrend, as seen in the above chart. It indicates that the uptrend is about to end and may reverse to a downtrend or move sideways. It has opened high, traded much higher, with the high for the day being much higher, but closes lower than its opening rate.

The Lower Shadow of the Shooting Star should be close to zero. The Upper Shadow of the Shooting Star should be as large as possible. The larger the Upper Shadow, the more important is the Shooting Star. As this occurred in an uptrend the selling pressure is seen as a potential reversal sign. When encountering this pattern traders will look for a lower open on the next period before considering the pattern valid and potentially including it in their trading strategy.

Three Black Crows:
It is a bearish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long black bodies where each day closes at or near its low and opens within the body of the previous day. It is used to predict the reversal of the current uptrend. The reversal pattern should be confirmed with other indicators. We see here that there is a clear reversal in the uptrend (or the depreciation of the Rupee). The Rupee then starts to appreciate from about 45.2 to 44.7.

Morning Star: It is a 3-day reversal candle pattern consisting of three candlesticks - a long-bodied black candle extending the current downtrend, a short middle candle that gapped down on the open, and a long-bodied white candle that closed above the midpoint of the body of the first day. On the above chart it is seen that the uptrend has just started, or the Rupee has just started to weaken following a period of strengthening. Thus, this can give a signal to traders to stock up dollars and sell it later as the rupee is expected to depreciate.

Harami:
This is again a 2-day pattern indicating a reversal in trend. On the first day there is a wide range candle that closes below its opening value. The sellers are still in control of this stock. Then on the second day, there is only a narrow range candle that closes up for the day. The second day candle is completely within the first day’s candle.

Section 6: Technical Analysis: Advantages & Disadvantages
Advantages:
Technical Analysis allows the prediction of the future prices/rates of securities/currencies. Technical Analysis focuses on what is the present happenings rather than emphasising on the historical information. Pure technical analysis concentrates on the prices, utilising objective tools and disregards factors like emotions. The signalling indicators sometimes point to the imminent end of a trend before it shows up in the actual market. This enables the trader to maintain profits or minimise losses.
Disadvantages:
Some critics claim that Dow’s approach is quite weak since today’s prices do not necessarily project future prices. Any wide fluctuation in the exchange rate market is corrected by the RBI. If a trade is based on technical analysis, one is not able to account for the RBI interventions which might work contrary to the expectations of the trader. Thus the intervention by RBI might completely negate the direction of the trade based on the analysis charts. The critic’s claim that the signal for the change in trend appear too late, often after the change has taken place. Therefore traders who rely on technical analysis react late and hence lose about 1/3 of the fluctuations. Analysis made in the short term may be exposed to “noise” and may result in the misreading of market directions. The methods under technical analysis have been widely publicized over the decades. Many traders are quite familiar with these patterns and often act on them in concern. This creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, as waves of buying and selling are created in response to “bullish” or “bearish” patterns.

Section 7: How traders and dealers use Technical Analysis?
As already explained before, traders can use technical analysis to identify trigger points to buy and sell rupee. Technical Analysis is more of an objective way of trading rather than one based on gut feeling and hence is more appropriate for traders who generally have a short term horizon. Some traders are dependent only on a particular technical analysis technique like the Elliot Wave or Candlestick. But generally, traders use a combination of more than one technique to trade. Not only this, a section of traders will not use only purely technical analysis tools, but will have an eye on macroeconomic factors and if these factors are favourable, then they will combine it with technical analysis to identify the right entry and exit points, upside – downside for a trade. Technical analysis methods do not always work and hence these traders need to operate in a disciplined way with tight stop losses.
When it comes to dealers who quote USD-INR and other quotes, they can also use technical analysis to predict the direction of USD-INR movement and put out appropriate quotes based on that. The dealers may use pure technical or a combination of technical analysis techniques or a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to determine the quotes to put out. On an intra-day basis, let us say the dealer was quoting 1 US$: Rs.45.45-45.55 and he is seeing a clear Elliot wave pattern developing on the downside or RSI index above a value of 70 clearly indicating a sell for the dollar and buy for the rupee. If he decides not to move his quote then as the rupee appreciates, then everyone will sell the dollars to this dealer as his quote will be the best and he will be the preferred dealer for selling dollars to, but no one will be willing to buy from him as the more proactive dealers who have identified the trend would have started quoting rates like 1 US$: Rs 45.35-45.45 and these are better quotes for someone wanting to buy dollars. Hence in such a situation by the time the dealer reacts, he may have already accumulated excess dollars which he may have to offload at lower rates if the rupee continues to appreciate. Similarly, a dealer can also use technical analysis to quote opening rates at the beginning of the day. Based on what the technical indicators are showing, whether it is a bullish or bearish pattern, he will quote an appropriate gap-up or gap-down quotes.

Section 8: Bibliography Chandra, P. Investment analysis and Prtfolio Management. Murphy, J. J. Technical Analysis of Financial Markets. Shapiro, A. C. Multinational financial Mangement. Weller, C. J. (2011). technical analysis of forex Markets. http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/

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