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Storage Strategy

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STORAGE STRATEGY
According to our forecasting, the natural gas price will increase even if it’s quite impossible to calculate the spot price on November 25th. Last year during the period September 27th – November 25th the price rose by almost 20% (from USD 3.297 to USD 3.901). Furthermore, natural gas has a seasonal trend (like other commodities) and the demand for it is usually higher during the winter (from November to March) because natural gas is used to heat residential and commercial buildings. In this case of increasing price,the best strategies are buying now : we can do it buying now at the spot price or buy now a future contract for natural gas. The only difference between the two strategies is the delivery : in the first scenario we will take delivery now whereas in the second one the delivery will take on November the 26th .
As mentioned above ,a good purchasing strategy could be buy now ,September the 27th , at the spot price USD 3.50/MMBtu and taking now delivery . We have to buy CAN 5,000,000 of natural gas on the NYMEX.For doing that we are going to convert our currency in USD : on September the 27th the currency exchange is USD 1= CAN 0.9708 ,so our amount is USD 4,854,000 and we can buy 1,386,857.14 MMBtu of natural gas.
ADVANTAGES
Firstly, the main goal of a supplier manager is to save money instead of speculate on the commodities exchange : if we think that the price is going to increase on November 25th (and this is what emerges from our forecasting) we should buy the commodity at the lowest possible price. As a matter of fact , many industry participants use this strategy : storing gas when prices are low, and withdrawing and selling it when prices are high.
Another advantage is the low price : USD 3.50/MMBtu .If we compare this strategy with the future strategy,emerges that buying and storing now is better than buying now and

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