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Sun Chips Case

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MKT4416: Frito-Lay, Inc. – Sun ChipsTM Multigrain Snacks Case Study Analysis

Assessment of the Sun ChipsTM test market results
This test market was held at Minneapolis – St. Paul, Minnesota metropolitan, which was chosen as a representation to the 90 million snack chip households in the United States. The analysis of the Sun ChipTM‘s test market results is organized chronologically according to the order of findings as stated in the case.

Type of purchase
The coupon program was an effective advertising tool that should be actively used during its introduction into other cities. The importance of retailing supermarkets and convenience stores in its distribution network was exemplified in its 90% purchase contribution. The sales mix of different pack sizes enabled Frito-Lay marketers to work out the average price per pound to be $2.701 approximately. In addition, the trial pack of 2.25 ounces could be seen as an effective advertising tool in trading customers up to bigger pack sizes of 7 and 11 ounces, in which these packs contributed 47% and 38% of purchases respectively. Lastly, the French onion flavor was preferred by consumers as this flavor contributed 55% of purchases, an excess of 10% of purchases in natural flavor.

Trial & Repeat rates
The cumulative trial and repeat rates for Sun ChipsTM after 40 weeks were 19.9% and 41.8% households respectively, as well as the average purchase amount for triers was 6 ounces. Hence the trial volume was estimated at 6,716,250 pounds2 and repeat purchase volume at 6,082,684 pounds3. The depth of repeat was 2.9 times while the repeat and repeater households purchased average of 13 ounces per purchase occasion. Thus the repeater purchase volume estimated at 17,639,783 pounds4. The total volume purchased would be 30,438,717 pounds5, which was equivalent to $82,187,718.436 in projected first-year sales revenues. This was short of the requirement of at least $100 million sales goal for new products, thus it would be unlikely for Sun ChipsTM to be introduced given this sales figure. The net profits of Sun ChipsTM were $7,982,136.228, after deduction of $22 million for Advertisement and Merchandising Expenditures.

Product cannibalization
A 30% of Sun ChipsTM pound volume resulted from switching from other Frito-Lay potato, tortilla and corn snacks chips, especially one-third of the cannibalized volume came from Doritos brand tortilla chips. However, the high cannibalization rate was considered normal for a new product introduction into the snack food industry as justified by one-third cannibalization rate of O’Grady’sTM. In addition, the gross profits for Sun ChipsTM were $0.25 per pound7 higher than other snack chips, making this product cannibalization a gain for Frito-Lay.

Benchmarking
In order to make more sense of the test market results of Sun ChipsTM, it was compared to O’Grady’sTM, which was the most recent Frito Lay product introduction to achieve $100million in first year sales. For the metrics listed in Table 1.1, Sun ChipsTM had outperformed O’Grady’sTM in brand awareness, depth of repeat and cannibalization rate.

1.1 Comparison of test market results between Sun ChipsTM against O’Grady’sTM Metric of measureProduct | Brand Awareness | Depth of Repeat | Cannibalization Rate | Cumulative Trial Rate (%) | Cumulative Repeat Rate (%) | Sun ChipsTM | 33% | 2.9 | 30% | 19.9 | 41.8 | O’Grady’sTM | 28% | 1.9 | 33% | >19.9 | >41.8 |

Conclusion
From these test market results, Sun ChipsTM had failed to match first year sales goal of $100 million for new product introduction, even though it has outperformed O’Grady’sTM in key areas such as brand awareness. This was contrasted starkly to the premarket test, which showed much more optimism with prediction of first-year sales revenues of $113 million. According to the results from PMT, its sales revenues was due to higher figures of cumulative first-year trial rate (25%), cumulative first year repeat rate (57%), and number of purchases in first-year per repeating households (6.2 times). In order to reach first year sales goal of $100 million, cumulative trial rate had to be at least 39.4%8 or cumulative repeat rate of 87.1%9 or depth of repeat of 4.0 times10. Therefore, Dwight Riskey had to decide on the suitable figures for his forecast of demand and sales revenues for its first year market introduction in order to decide on the next move.

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