...högskola | Department of economics Magisteruppsats 30 hp | Vårterminen 2013 The Effect of External Debt On Economic growth – A panel data analysis on the relationship between external debt and economic growth. Av: Dereje Abera Ejigayehu Handledare: Joakim persson Handledare: [Handledarens namn (teckenstorlek: 12p)] Abstract The impact of external debt on economic growth is a debatable issue between scholars since the onset of the debt crisis in 1980’s. This thesis examines whether external debt affects the economic growth of selected heavily indebted poor African countries through the debt overhang and debt crowding out effect. This is carried out by using data for eight heavily indebted poor African countries between 1991 to 2010.The result from estimation shows that external debt affects economic growth by the debt crowding out effect rather than debt overhang. Moreover, in an attempt to mark out debt servicing history, the thesis found the selected countries are not paying (servicing) more than 95% of their accumulated debt. Key Words: External Debt, Debt overhang, Debt crowding out, debt servicing and Table of Contents CHAPTER ONE .....................................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background of the study..........................
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...Economic Modelling 28 (2011) 2404–2408 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Economic Modelling j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / e c m o d Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries Tsangyao Chang ⁎, Gengnan Chiang Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t In this paper, we try to investigate how the debt and real GDP per capita relationship varies with indebtedness levels and other country characteristics in a balanced panel of 21 developing Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1992–2006. The empirical results indicate that there exist two threshold values of 32.88% and 55.89%. The latter is lower than the Maastricht criterion and Stability and Growth Pact of a total external Debt per GDP ratio at 60% in the OECD countries. Both thresholds divide our panel into three regimes. In the middle (stimulus) regime, the Debt per GDP ratio has a positive impact on real GDP per capita, which is consistent with the stimulus view (Eisner, 1984). However, the impact becomes negative and consistent with the crowding-out view (Friedman, 1977, 1985) in the left and right (crowding-out) regimes. Based on our findings, we find no supportive evidence for Ricardian view (Barro, 1989). Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for fiscal policymakers in these Latin...
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...Non-linear Effects of Fiscal Deficits on Growth in Developing Countries Christopher S. Adam and David L. Bevan(*) Department of Economics, University of Oxford August 2001 Revised December 2001 Abstract This paper examines the relation between fiscal deficits and growth for a panel of 45 developing countries. It finds evidence of a threshold effect at a level of the deficit around 1.5% of GDP. While there appears to be a growth payoff to reducing deficits to this level, this effect disappears or reverses itself for further fiscal contraction. There is also evidence of interaction effects between deficits and debt stocks, with high debt stocks exacerbating the adverse consequences of high deficits. Keywords: Fiscal deficits, growth, threshold effects, developing countries. JEL Codes: H3 , H6 , O4 The original version of this paper was prepared for the Cornell/ISPE Conference Public Finance and Development held at Cornell University, September 7-9, 2001. We thank our discussant, Mick Keen, conference participants, and also Jon Temple for helpful comments on the paper. Corresponding author: David Bevan (david.bevan@economics.ox.ac.uk) Department of Economics, Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UL Tel: +44 (0) 1865 271075 Non-linear Effects of Fiscal Deficits on Growth in Developing Countries 1. Introduction A great deal of attention has been devoted in both theoretical and empirical literatures to the possible impact of various fiscal magnitudes on growth. In general, the theoretical...
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...Objective Of Study The objective of the following study is to understand and analyse the recent euro debt crisis which led to the temporary fall of the euro. Through this study, attempt has been made to single out EU member countries and the events in those countries that led to the crisis. Policy recommendations have also been stated to further help the main objective of dissecting and understanding the problem. INTRODUCTION Over the last two years, the euro zone has been going through an agonizing debate over the handling of its own home grown crisis, now the ‗euro zone crisis‘. Starting from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and more recently Italy, these euro zone economies have witnessed a downgrade of the rating of their sovereign debt, fears of default and a dramatic rise in borrowing costs. These developments threaten other Euro zone economies and even the future of the Euro. Such a situation is a far cry from the optimism and grand vision that marked the launch of the Euro in 1999 and the relatively smooth passage it enjoyed thereafter. While the Euro zone may be forced to do what it takes, it is unlikely that the situation will soon return to business as usual on its own. Yet, this crisis is not a currency crisis in a classic sense. Rather, it is about managing economies in a currency zone and the economic and political tensions that arise from the fact that its constituents are moving at varying speeds, have dramatically different fiscal capacities and debt profiles...
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...focused on corporate governance measures, family relationships, succession, and performance indicators of family owned businesses. This research article also deals with capital structure & performance of family businesses in India. Article 1: (Kim & Gao) Does Family involvement increase business performance Family involvement in business management attracts much scholarly attention in the field of family business. This paper's main objectives are answering two questions. They are 1) how does family involvement in management affect firm performance? 2) Is the relationship between FIM & Firm performance contingent on a firms goals? This study defines family business as a firm owned and managed by a family or family clan (litz, 1997). This study employs snowball sampling as it is difficult, the study also asked the respondents to indicate whether the firm was owned and managed by a family through...
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...The Economic Growth Of Nigeria By DoubleGist | Published: June 5, 2013 Inflation – Impacts On The Economic Growth Of Nigeria Inflation – Impacts On The Economic Growth Of Nigeria A macroeconomics problem facing Nigeria, and the most disturbing, is the problem of inflation. As a result of its growing rate, Nigerian government is concerned about its impacts on her economic growth. To place an order for the Complete Project Material, pay N5,000 to GTBank (Guaranty Trust Bank) Account Name – Chudi-Oji Chukwuka Account No – 0044157183 Then text the name of the Project topic, email address and your names to 08060565721. Many authors have written on Impacts of inflation on Nigerian economy, but the authors have different views because inflation analysis, nevertheless, one thing common is that all the authors agree that inflation has Impact on Nigerian economic growth. Samuelson (1973), defines inflation as “a general rising prices for breeds, cars, haircut, rising wages, rent etc. Onwukwe (2003), on his side defines inflation as “a significant and sustained rise in the general price level or a declining value of the monetary units. The problem created by the rising prices of goods and services has become two difficult for government to solve. During inflationary period, fixed amounts of money buy less quantity of goods and services. The real value of money is drastically reduced i.e the purchasing power of consumers are reduced. The Impact of rapid inflation growth has...
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...Information Sharing and the effect on the supply of credit B.Sc. Thesis Finance Date: 2011-5-29 Name: Martijn Verwijs1 (Anr: 272713) Thesis supervisor: Erik von Schedvin 1 Email: m.m.verwijs@uvt.nl Table of contents Chapter 1: Introduction of the problem..................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Problem background........................................................................................................................ 3 1.2 Research question ............................................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Empirical approach.......................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Main Findings.................................................................................................................................. 5 1.5 Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2: Literature review ..................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 3: Data overview ....................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 4: Empirical setup ...........................................................
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... 9 Implication for Business 11 Malaysia 13 Preventing and Managing Future Crises 14 Conclusion 16 References 18 Introduction Asian Contagion In March 1997 Asia faced a serious crisis in financial sector. This concern was started from Thailand and has spread to a lot of countries in Asia. Obviously it affected to those countries in economy situation such as currency value. Also called the "Asian Contagion", this was a series of currency devaluations and other events that spread through many Asian markets beginning in the summer of 1997. The currency markets first failed in Thailand as the result of the government's decision to no longer peg the local currency to the U.S. dollar. Currency declines spread rapidly throughout South Asia, in turn causing stock market declines, reduced import revenues and even government...
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...M University, College Station Texas. * For valuable research assistance, I thank Antu Murshid. 1. Introduction Globalization has become the buzz word of the new millennium. It is viewed as the cause of many of the world’s problems as well as a panacea. The debate over globalization is manifest both in public demonstrations against the WTO in Seattle in the Fall of 1999 and the IMF and World Bank earlier. It also has led to a spate of scholarly and not so scholarly books on the subject.1 Until three years ago the consensus view among economists on the issue of the international integration of financial markets was very positive. The benefits of open capital markets stressed include: optimal international resource allocation; intertemporal optimization; international portfolio diversification and discipline on policy makers.2. However, the recent spate of crises in Latin America and Asia has led some to argue that the costs of complete liberalization of financial markets for emerging countries may outweigh the benefits.3 The paper focuses on the globalization of financial markets from the historical perspective of the past 120 years. In Section 2, I summarize the empirical evidence on the international integration of financial markets from 1880 to the present primarily based on my research with Barry Eichengreen and that of Maurice Obstfeld and Alan Taylor. This research shows that globalization has followed a U-shaped pattern for both stocks and net flows of foreign investment...
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...THE ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF GLOBALIZATION CHAPTER 2 Chapter 2 The economic dimensions of globalization While the globalization process is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon, some of its most visible and influential aspects are economic in nature. This chapter contains an analysis, from a global standpoint, of major trends in trade, investment, finance, macroeconomic regimes and international labour mobility. This analysis covers a long period in history, from the last quarter of the nineteenth century to the present, and is structured according to the successive phases of globalization identified in the preceding chapter. The first section focuses on the development of trade and investment flows among the principal regions of the world, with emphasis on the variable relationship between the expansion of trade and economic growth, the emergence of integrated production systems underpinning the operations of transnational corporations, the primary challenges faced by developing countries as a result of these global trends and the creation of an international institutional framework in the area of trade. The second section contains an analysis of the most important changes that have taken place in international finance and macroeconomic regimes. After reviewing major historical developments in this area, the study focuses on the volatility and contagion which have characterized capital flows in the third phase of globalization, and finally analyses the magnitude and...
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...the analysis, is investigated whether the export activity of the country coincides with its comparative advantage especially in the present circumstances, those of recession. Initially, we define the comparative advantage based on the approaches of Adam Smith, David Ricardo's and Heckscher-Ohlin. Furthermore we analyze the current situation of the country, Greece’s economic structure and its trade performance, mainly the exports. In addition we identify the elements of the Greek competitiveness and the results of the fiscal consolidation that Greece is undergoing. Having analyzed the definition of the comparative advantage and the data concerning Greece’s reforms we proceed in identifying Greece’s comparative advantage mainly in four different sectors. Firstly we identify the key factors making the touristic sector extremely profitable for the Greek economy; secondly we analyze the commercial shipping sector then the strategically position of the country and finally the competitive rates in which Greece seems to gain ground. Keywords: comparative advantage, competitiveness, internationalisation, entrepreneurship, financial crisis. 1 Contents: 1. Historical and literature review. 2. Greece – Country Analysis: Reforms and fiscal consolidation. 2.1: Economic Structure and Performance of Greece. 2.2: Elements of Greek Competitiveness. 2.3: Fiscal Consolidation and its results. 2.3.1: GDP growth rate & Consumer Price Index. 2.3.2: Strong austerity measures and...
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...THE FUTURE OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE* Dani Rodrik Harvard University August 2011 * This is a paper prepared for the 2011 Jackson Hole Symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August 25-27, 2011. I am grateful to Arvind Subramanian for helpful conversations and to UNIDO for making their INDSTAT4 data base available. I also thank Cynthia Balloch for research assistance and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard for financial assistance. I. Introduction Novelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart‘s timely comic novel ―Super Sad True Love Story‖ (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision of what lies in store for the world economy. The novel takes place in the near future and is set against the backdrop of a United States that lies in economic and political ruin. The country‘s bankrupt economy is ruled with a firm hand by the IMF from its new Parthenon-shaped headquarters in Singapore. China and sovereign wealth funds have parceled America‘s most desirable real estate among themselves. Poor people are designated as LNWI (―low net worth individuals‖) and are being pushed into ghettoes. Even skilled Americans are desperate to acquire residency status in foreign lands. (A degree in econometrics helps a lot, as it turns out). Ivy League colleges have adopted the names of their Asian partners and yuan-backed dollars are the only safe currency. This is sheer fantasy...
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...University, Faculty of Economics Marrakesh Morocco, University of Basel 17. January 2013 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43907/ MPRA Paper No. 43907, posted 21. January 2013 12:56 UTC Optimal Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: A Critical Literature Review 1 Mariam OUCHEN Laboratory of innovation, responsibility and sustainable development Cadi Ayyad University, Faculty of Economics Marrakesh Morocco Center of Macroeconomics and economic theory University of Basel Abstract :This paper set out to review the main theories and empirical methods employed in selecting an appropriate exchange rate regime.In order to achieve this, the paper is organized as follows : Section 2 introduces the distinct classifications of exchange regimes(de jure exchange rate regimes versus the facto exchange rate regimes), and the different theoretical approaches which illustrate how an optimal exchange rate regime is determined . Despite their initial popularity, the theoretical considerations have not escaped criticism.Section 3 reviews the criticism of these theories.A conclusion is provided in Section 4. Keywords : Exchange rate regime, the structural approach, credibility, flexibility, the bipolar view. 1 - Introduction The literature on the selection of exchange rate regimes can be divided into three main groups : the structural approach, the trade-off between credibility and flexibility and the“bipolar view“ or “corner solution“. Classical literature refers to earlier studies which examined...
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...RESTORING THE VALUE OF THE CEDI DISTINGUISHED SPEAKER SERIES LECTURE by: Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia Visiting Professor of Economic Governance Central University College Ghana MARCH 25, 2014 1 Mr. Chairman Pro-Chancellor for Central University Members of the Board of Regents President J.A. Kufuor Members of the Council of State Members of Parliament Excellencies, Members of the Diplomatic Corps Representatives of Political Parties Captains of Industry and Finance Distinguished Invited Guests Faculty Students Members of the Media Ladies and Gentlemen I would like to begin by thanking all of you who have taken time out of your busy schedules to make the journey to this beautiful and serene campus this evening. For me, it is an honor and a privilege to be delivering my first public lecture as visiting professor at Central University College on a topic that is literally on the minds of most Ghanaians today. What can we do about what appears to be a perpetually declining value of our currency, the cedi? I would like to say from the outset that this subject is very much one of economics and not politics. It is therefore important that we stick to 2 the empirical evidence and data1 in reaching conclusions. I am hoping that at the end of this lecture, some light would be thrown on the issue for a dispassionate and nonpartisan discussion by all stakeholders that would inure to the benefit of Ghana. Mr. Chairman, the exchange rate is a price, just like the price of any good or service...
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...PAPER SERIES CAN INFLATION TARGETING WORK IN EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES? Frederic S. Mishkin Working Paper 10646 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10646 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2004 For presentation in a conference in honor of Guillermo Calvo, held on April 15 and 16, 2004 at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. The views expressed in this paper are exclusively those of the author and not those of Columbia University or the National Bureau of Economic Research.The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2004 by Frederic S. Mishkin. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries? Frederic S. Mishkin NBER Working Paper No. 10646 July 2004 JEL No. E5, F3 ABSTRACT This paper explores issues in emerging market countries to make inflation targeting work for them. It starts by outlining why emerging market economies are so different from advanced economies and then discuss why developing strong fiscal, financial and monetary institutions is so critical to the success of inflation targeting in emerging market countries. Then it discusses two emerging market countries which illustrate what it takes to make inflation targeting work...
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