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Turkey's Foreign Policy

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Submitted By red1paradise
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Major conflicts throughout history have always led to a new way of arbitrating world affairs. The crash of the Soviet Union led to a new making peace process with a diversification of actors and a multilateral approach, especially after the election of Obama that made from liberty a higher priority than security.
Since the WW2, Turkey has been considered as the eastern wing of NATO. Since the end of the Cold War, Turkey tried to become an active actor with its own agenda and its own priorities. It is no more a marginal actor in the international scene, especially concerning major conflicts in the Middle-East.
To play the role in an efficient way, Turkey built an assertive foreign policy, based on 3 methodological and 5 operational principles. The first methodological principle is to act rather than to react. Those Acts must be consistent with the vision of the world Turkey built, and how it sees itself in this world. The second one is having a consistent view that strengthens its foreign policy. The Third one is making the civil and economic soft spreading power of Turkey their main argument.
Those principles led to an operational vision based on five points. The first one is to strike the balance between the security dimension and the liberty dimension in its intern and extern policies. Despite serious neighborhoods problems with security and lack of democracy, Turkey achieved a great constitution revision and has a more and more powerful democracy, where some marginalized parts of the population started to have their voices heard, as Kurds populations. The second one is to have zero problems with the neighbors using a developing economic interdependence between Turkey and its neighbors. It is especially the case with the Arab World were the Turkish goods are more and more present in the market. Some cultural goods like films and series strengthens the popularity of Turkey in these countries where it is seen as a model. The third principle is “a proactive peace diplomacy based on security for all, high level political dialogue, economic integration and multicultural coexistence”[1]. The fourth one is a multi-dimensional foreign policy. Turkey tries to be in good relations with all major actors, never have the military opposition as an option, and act on civil-society to deepen its ties with NGOs and strengthens its influence over societies. The last principle is having a rhythmic diplomacy with active involvement in all international organizations.
Turkey, due to its foreign policy, is becoming a major actor, heard and considered in every conflict in the Middle-East. This implies great responsibilities and consistence that must exist between its internal situation and principles it promotes in the international scene. Turkey will try to join the EU, to deepen its ties with the US, based on a model of partnership, and to promote a more integrated middle east where it will be playing a central role. Its relations with the Arab World are likely to increase, what will make from Turkey the country it aims to be: an important regional actor with great responsibilities and original contribution to the world harmony.
The Arab Spring come and changed some equations of the Middle-East, making from Turkey the winner of the change. After the election of new conservative Islamic governments in North Africa, Turkey showed a will to increase its influence in the region, and try to impose a mentorship on those governments that have the same political direction. In fact, Turkey’s mentorship is well welcomed in those countries where it is taken as a model. They have been seduced by the way turkey succeeded in making democracy, free market and Islam happily coexist.
However, the Turkish zero problem policy is likely to come to an end. Turkey is experiencing great difficulties to deal with some complicated issues and manage its relationship with some actors with different values. France is one of those actors. The new Armenian genocide bill Sarkozy passed was about to break ties between the two countries, especially considering that links between them were already tense. This act will also make more complicated the cooperation between EU and NATO and will rise tension within NATO, especially after Turkey stopped all its military cooperation agreements with France. This can make international cooperation harder in the region, what is not favorable in such changing times.
Turkey has also to deal with some internal problems that weaken its credibility. The Kurdish war is one of the major problems Turkey is going through. The situation is of course better for both Turkey and the Kurds, That are no more marginalized by the law and by the educational system as they used to be. After the jailing of their leader, PKK is less and less strong, what made the situation more comfortable for the Turkish Army. However, Erdogan is making things harder for rebels, there are fewer negotiations with PKK, more activists, journalists and lawyers are jailed and more military invasions. Erdogan try to force PKK to negotiate again, but with more than 100 journalists jailed, Turkey’s voice for freedom of expression against France bill sounds less loud. Turkey has to make its internal conditions of freedom and equality better as to be more heard and more active in the international scene. To have more determination and influence as an emerging regional power, Turkey needs to include the Kurdish integration and the freedom of expression in the new constitutional revision as they promised.
The Syrian bloodshed is another problematic issue Turkey will have to deal with. In fact, it is the issue that will determine how much it can be influential in its region. After Russia’s and China’s veto in the UN Security Council, Turkey was furious and started to propose alternatives to the Security Council. Those alternatives consist on more support for the Syrian regime opponents, what Ankara already started despite the UN framework. Ankara is trying to form a new front, including some Arab words that may take the decision of a military intervention. Turkey was very critical against the Syrian regime lack of response to unilateral and international calls and lack of responsibility over what is happening under its commandments. However, Turkey assured that it is not supporting the Syrian rebels with arm supply. Turkey never acts in its own and is searching to form a strong regional coalition. For now, no military intervention is on the agenda.
Turkey can’t now count over a NATO intervention. It could take the lead, but there is lot of problems it will have to face, like the Turkish rebels militia and the arm supply. Turkey is now using the military intervention as a threat to the Syrian regime. Turkey is already a host to mass refugees, and can’t afford all they need if the massacre turned to a real civil war. Turkey would probably intervene is such a case, what will complicate the situation, and make Iran in a terrible dilemma.
Two other points are very important in considering the situation the Turkish foreign policy tries to deal with. The first one is the way Turkey deal with Israel. It is clear that there is no ideological direction making Turkey less and less cooperative with Israel. It is only a matter of interests and geostrategic view. In fact, even before the AKP came to the power, Ankara was often in difficult situation with Israel when as history shows, Israel was always considered as a neighbor with who turkey Shares some mutual interests. After the election of the AKP, Turkey Showed lot of cooperation with Israel even after the fall of USA hegemonic project for the Middle-East. Now, the Turkish government is the most democratic one, it has to deal with popular protest and requirements that are often against Israel. Turkey is also aiming to have more influence and popularity over the Arab societies that are very critical against Israel and its military acts. So Turkey tries to have the necessary relations with Israel as to make the peace stronger in the region without losing the US support.
The second important point is the relationship with Iran. This country has started to consider turkey as a rival leadership in the region with a better model of reconciliation between Islam and democracy. The position of turkey about the Syrian bloodshed was very inconvenient to Iran that sees its legitimacy in the Arab streets falling. Iran consider that the Ottoman past of Turkey discredit it, especially after the new Egypt rise. It also consider that the Turkish model is the only way the USA found to reduce the damage made by the Arab spring and to preserve some interest it has in the region. However, Iran, that wanted its power spread by its ideology, has to inverse the equation.

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