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U.S. Unemployment Rate- January 2013

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. unemployment rate was essentially unchanged for January at 7.9% (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm). Although nonfarm payroll increased by about 157,000 the unemployment rate wasn’t affected and has remained at or near the same rate since September 2012. The year over year (Jan. 2012 to Jan. 2013) unemployment rates dropped by about .4%, down from 8.3%, but the number of persons not in the labor force also grew by about 1.1 million over the same period. Industries that reported adding jobs were retail, construction, health care, and wholesale. Industries that shrank included transportation and warehousing.

Looking at unemployment by major worker groups (adult men, adult women, teenagers, whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians) was unchanged. Also unchanged was the number of long-term unemployed at about 4.7 million, accounting for 38.1% of the overall unemployed. These are individuals who have been searching for work for 27 weeks or more.

In January, the number of persons marginally attached to the workforce dropped by about 366,000 to 2.4 million. Of these 2.4 million, 804,000 were not counted in the unemployment rate due to being considered discouraged and 1.6 million were not counted in the unemployment rate because they had not searched for work in the prior four weeks for reasons such as school or family responsibilities.

According to a New York Times article on their site, Jobless Rate Edges Down to its Lowest in 4 Years, while some of the numbers seem promising they are somewhat misleading. The decrease in the unemployment rate is due, in part, to a shrinking labor force. The labor participation rate remains low by historical standards. At 63.6% this measures is near the low point on the economic cycle according to Nigel Gault, chief US Economist for IHS Global Insight.

Unfortunately, the current situation isn’t good enough to get discouraged workers back in the job hunt. The labor department continues to revise it figures for job creations month over month. Examples include 132,00 jobs for September 2012, down from 148,000, and 138,000 jobs for October, down from 171,000.

According to the same New York Times article above (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/business/economy/us-creates-146000-new-jobs-as-unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-7.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0), published on December 7, 2012, the Northeastern storm, Hurricane Sandy, didn’t help with the job creation numbers, either. Only 86,000 jobs would be added in November, a decline from October due to the storm. Another impact to the job creation numbers was the looming fiscal cliff and uncertainty it created for many companies. Despite this concern, however, unemployment reached its lowest level in 4 years but, again, was impacted by a shrinking labor force.

There seems to be some hope for the future with long-term forecasts showing a drop to 7.5% unemployment by the end of 2013, about 7% by the end of 2014, and back to full employment of 6% by the summer of 2016 according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, in an article from USA Today’s website (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/02/08/long-term-unemployed-waiting-for-recovery/1903963/). He says most gains will come from the energy and housing sectors.

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