...----------------------- Energy Trace Barrier Analysis (ETBA) – Qualitative analysis technique used to identify hazards by tracing energy flow into, thru, & out of a system. “Energy hazard” is defind as an energy source tht adversely impacts an unprotectd or vulnerable target. Assessment is conductd by following the energy path to determine if adequate controls are in place to assure undesird energy release does not occur.– Energy flow is tracd through the system operation & energy transfer points are identifid– Barriers to ento energy flow are evaluatd to determine adequacy • ETBA process can be applied at any stage of the project lifecycle & can be very useful for:– Systems design –Developing procedures(e.g., lockout--‐tagout). – Planning/judging operational readiness. – During mishap investigation or making “safe--‐to--‐enter” decisions at mishap sites. ETBA Approach • Examine system & identify all energy sources • For each energy source, trace its path through the system • Identify all targets tht could be vulnerable to the energy source • Identify all barriers in the energy flow path • Determine if existing controls are adequate. Energy Source– any material, mechanism, or process tht contains potential energy tht can be releasd •Electrical •Mechanical •Chemical •Radiation• Sonic• Thermal• Nuclear• Pneumatic• Hydraulic• Others Energy barrier --‐ any design or administrative method tht prevents energy from being releasd or prevents a hazardous energy source from reaching a...
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...ARES Corporation is skilled at developing event trees and fault trees; providing a systematic method for investigating accident and/or failure scenarios involving complex systems. These trees evaluate the pathways leading to failure of a system and the associated risk(s). The event tree development process determines the boundaries of the particular analysis by defining the initiating event and the possible outcomes for each sequence of events. The event tree analysis defines possible scenarios including success, and partial and/or complete system/subsystem failure. Fault trees are often used to quantify system events that are part of event tree sequences. An event tree is a graphical representation of the logic model that identifies and quantifies the possible outcomes following an initiating event. Beginning with an initiating event; the event tree details a sequence of pivotal events that lead to specific end states (e.g. OK, Partial Failure or Failure). As each new top event is considered, a new node on the tree is added with a split of probabilities taking either branch. Fault trees graphically represent the interaction of failures and other events within a system. Basic events at the bottom of the fault trees are linked via logic symbols (know as gates) to one or more top events. These top events represent identified hazards or system failure modes for which predicted reliability or availability data is required. An “AND” gate indicates that all of the events...
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...Course Project Part 2 Course Project Part 2 Jezreel Wilson, Sadaf Mohiuddin, Anel Catic Community Tech Center 04/232015 Jezreel Wilson, Sadaf Mohiuddin, Anel Catic Community Tech Center 04/232015 Contents Introduction 2 Risk Management Planning 2 Scope 2 Statement of Work—Project Description and 3 WBS 5 Risk Identification 6 Negative Risks 6 Qualitative Risk Analysis 7 Positive Risks 7 Negative Risks 7 Risk Response Planning 7 Positive Risks 7 Negative Risks 9 Decision Tree Analysis 11 Discussion of Decision Tree 12 Event / Fault Tree Analysis 14 Discussin of Event / Fault Tree 15 Conclusion: 15 Works Cited 16 Introduction The available of technology, such as, computers, tablets, ebooks, and even Internet are absent in many households in America still. As of 2013, the Census Bureau suggested that “84% of U.S. households own a computer, and 73% of U.S. households have a computer with a broadband connection to the internet (Pew Research Center).” It also mentioned “63.6% having a handheld computer. (Census Bureau)” A survey by Pew Research Center confirmed those stats, as 70% reported they have broadband access. These numbers show that there is still a large number of Americans who don’t own a computer, nor have access to the Internet. “Nearly 25 million households (21%) have no regular internet access at all, either at home or elsewhere (Pew Research Center)...
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...When we look at the terms of risk reduction and hazard control we get the terms of eliminating and reducing the issues. Where control of hazards seek to maintain instead of removing the process. The term that risk reduction is applied to is a complete understanding of the intent of the criterion to ty risk- reducing the probability of the events occurring. In the terms of the second and third definitions of risk because they include both the probability of the event and the severity of the harmful consequences. Risk reduction is a term that capture the fundamental concept that harmful events consist of the three phases. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st e A physical model is one that thing would be (like if you were creating a model of say a building, park, airplane or other large structure or area), sometimes it's actual size if it is small enough. You build or have built that you can touch. Sometimes it is a miniature version of what the real. What I mean by physical models is those that are meant to represent the physical world, as opposed to – for example – biomechanical, or computers models. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st ed.). Whenever you are planning or one have to deal with risk and hazards we should looking in to the process from the beginning to the end. Where do we want to be at this point in the project as...
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...referred to as decision analysis is part of a core of business. Decision analysis is a method used in the business firm to help managers resolve uncertainties in making investment decisions. It helps them make choices, take risks, and gain information that is needed. The decision tree can be simple or complex. It shows a combination of choice with different possible events. The usage of decision trees has helped various companies to determine the best alternative, which yields the greatest monetary gain. An example of a decision tree applied in real life is by the Oglethorpe Power Corporation (OPC). It was used in deciding whether to invest in a major transmission system. Firstly, three groups were established. The first group consists of a senior management team which helps review ideas, recommendations and make a decision based on the approach. Then, we have the analytical team which is responsible for conducting the analysis and analyse the ideas and recommendations given. The last group consists of the OPC experts who helps solve specific topics which have been brought up during the analysing process. The first step in decision analysis was identifying the problems that may arise accurately which were conducted by the analytic team. Major decisions, uncertainties, flaws and any values of concern were listed as a problem at OPC. These problems were transferred onto a bigger picture to help create an influence diagram and a clear decision tree which is shown in Diagram...
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...Decision Analysis Model and Report JaKaiser Smith Southern New Hampshire University Date: 07/09/2015 Abstract In this report following resources have been utilized to establish a relationship between Retail Salesperson’s salaries and their intent to shoplift at their own workplace: * The Larceny theft data from Federal Bureau of Investigation’s official website for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013; * 25th and 26th Annual Retail Theft Surveys by Hayes International for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013; * National Conference of State Legislatures website for Labor and employment data for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013. ‘Shoplifting’ is undoubtedly a psychological issue for most of the people. Shoplifting for most individuals is rarely about greed or poverty. It’s about people struggling with their own personal conflicts and needs. There are approximately 27 million shoplifters (or 1 in 11 people) in the USA today. More than 10 million people have been caught shoplifting in the last five years. The pleasure produced from “getting away with it” yields a chemical reaction causing in what shoplifters describe as an incredible “rush” or “high” feeling. Many shoplifters have committed to the fact that this high is their “true reward,” rather than the stolen product itself. It is assumed in this project that all the shoplifting instances in different states of the USA have been performed by the front-end Retail Salesperson. This might not be 100% true as the members...
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...portfolio, customer base and future revenues. That being said, there are risks associated with taking on the costly and lengthy FDA approval processes that goes along with it. After having performed our analysis, based in part by the use of the attached decision tree, we have concluded that the maximum that Merck and Company should be willing to offer LAB Pharmaceuticals for the rights to Davanrik is $13.68 million. Also, in order to be more confident in the financial outlook for this plan we also elected to perform a sensitivity analysis. The analysis was run based on a worse case scenario and assumed an increase of launch costs from $100 million to $225 million for the weight loss compound in the third phase of the launch. If Merck and Company was to experience these added costs we would expect to see value of $10.76 million. Within the attached report you will find our detailed analysis, which has led us to the above conclusion. The report also outlines the method in which we have used and the assumptions that we have made. We hope that you find the document to your complete satisfaction and ask that you not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns as you begin to read through our report. Kind regards, Model Description Situational Analysis Merck & Company is a global research-driven pharmaceutical company...
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...Introduction 3 2. Executive Summary 5 3. Data Preprocessing 6 4. Analysis 8 4.1 Data Partition 8 4.2 Stat Explore 10 4.3 Clustering & Segmentation: 12 4.4 Decision Tree 24 4.5 Interactive Decision Tree 28 4.6 Gradient Boosting 33 4.7 Linear Regression 35 4.8 Neural Network 38 4.9 Compare Models 40 4.10 Score New Data 42 4.11 Logistic Regression 44 5. Conclusion 49 1. Introduction Given the complexity and the large extent of the interdependencies between airports, aircraft, passengers, airlines, control centers, etc. of the national aviation system, flight delays occur frequently. Recently, the OAG Flight Status database reported that over 4.6 million flights arrived more than 15 minutes late at their destination; a conservative average of 80 passengers per flight equates to about 368 million passengers being inconvenienced. Inspired by this, our term paper predicts the delay in flights of some of the players in the U.S. Airlines Industry and the impact of the flight delays to improve their performance (July 2014 to June 2015). DATA SOURCE The secondary data source we will use is available under Airline On-time Statistics on the TranStats website of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics as our source of data. We extracted information for specific carriers from all major airports during a particular time period. For the purpose of our analysis, we restricted the scope of our study to focus on the arrivals in time period...
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...[BI-PROJECT REPORT] April 13, 2014 DATA MINING Analysis of Bike sharing dataset April 13, 2014 Group 007 MIS 6324 1 [BI-PROJECT REPORT] April 13, 2014 Project Report for Analysis of bike sharing dataset MIS-6324 Intro. to business intelligence software and techniques Prepared by Group Name Group007 Group Members Rohith Raj Abhay Joshi Sai Karan Jahnavi Papanaboina Under the guidance of Professor Kelly Slaughter, PhD Clinical Professor Information Systems University of Texas at Dallas MIS 6324 2 [BI-PROJECT REPORT] April 13, 2014 Table of Contents 1.Introduction to Data Mining ...................................................................................................................... 4 2. Background of the dataset ........................................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Description of dataset ......................................................................................................................... 5 3.Outline of Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 6 4. The Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 7 5. Pre-processing the dataset ...........................................................................................................
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...MLOS 535 – Survey of Organizational Finance Cohort #13 Week 8 Comparative Analysis By: . Final Paper Option #2 Comparative Analysis Family Dollar Stores Inc. & Dollar Tree Inc. Author Note: Written for: Professor Deborah St. George Azusa Pacific University 2014 Abstract Comparative analysis of two financial statements between Family Dollar Store Inc. and Dollar Tree Inc. In our country discount grocery chain store companies are making their place in the market as a staple for most American families. With so many to choose from, and having multiples within a close proximity of one another they have become fiercely competitive. Upon collecting the required perspective financial statements, I analyzed them in detail and identified key comparative advantages consisting of years 2012 and 201 . The following report is reflective of my findings and a brief history of each company to the end of fiscal year 2013. FAMILY DOLLAR INC. Family Dollar was founded in 1959 by Leon Levine, a 21-year-old entrepreneur. In November of that year, the company's first store was opened, in Charlotte, North Carolina. In 1961, their first store in South Carolina opened, followed by stores in Georgia and Virginia, which were opened in 1962 and 1965, respectively. During the 1960s, the store company was largely a southern United States operation. By 1969, there were fifty stores in Charlotte alone. The 1970s were growing years for the store chain. In 1970, Family Dollar's...
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...Question (11-1): Define each of the following terms: a. Project cash flow; accounting income b. Incremental cash flow; sunk cost; opportunity cost; externality; cannibalization; expansion project; replacement project c. Net operating working capital changes; salvage value d. Stand-alone risk; corporate (within-firm) risk; market (beta) risk e. Sensitivity analysis; scenario analysis; Monte Carlo simulation analysis. f. Risk-adjusted discount rate; project cost of capital g. Decision tree; staged decision-tree analysis; decision node; branch h. Real options; managerial options; strategic options; embedded options i. Investment timing option; growth option; abandonment option; flexibility option a. Project cash flow: The process of inflow or outflow of cash in any project is called cash flow. In project cash flow the increase in income results cash inflow on the other hand, expenditure results cash outflow. Accounting income: Accounting income is the result after deducting the total sales revenue from its expenses. The result of accounting income and cash flow differs in the financial statement because accounting income makes records of both cash and non cash transaction. While in cash flow only pure cash transaction are recorded. b) Incremental cash flow: Incremental cash flow is the additional cash that company may receive by taking a new project. If a company sees positive incremental of cash flow then it means the company can get additional cash flow...
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...Mathematichs, Reykjavík University, Iceland Examiner: Dr. Rögnvaldur Sæmundsson Associate Professor, Reyjavík University, Iceland. ii Abstract The way companies value their investment opportunities has changed in recent years. With changing market conditions companies are constantly confronted with investment decisions that are increasingly uncertain. Known investment analysis such as net present value and decision tree analysis increasingly undervalue investment opportunities as they lack the flexibility and ability to modify projects when new information is available. A method based on financial option valuation has become the basis for a new technique to value high risk investment opportunities. It is based on valuation in the risk-neutral world and therefore eliminates investors’ attitude to risk. Real option analysis can capture the value of this increased flexibility, which previous methods have not been able to, such as the option to defer, abandon, expand or default a project. These options can be exercised when new information arrives and therefore provide an opportunity to put a floor on project loss. Use of binomial option pricing model gives managers a whole range of possibilities in analyzing the flexibility and to value the uncertainty in their investments. In this thesis the disadvantages of net present value and decision...
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...1 PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES: SCENARIO ANALYSIS, DECISION TREES AND SIMULATIONS In the last chapter, we examined ways in which we can adjust the value of a risky asset for its risk. Notwithstanding their popularity, all of the approaches share a common theme. The riskiness of an asset is encapsulated in one number – a higher discount rate, lower cash flows or a discount to the value – and the computation almost always requires us to make assumptions (often unrealistic) about the nature of risk. In this chapter, we consider a different and potentially more informative way of assessing and presenting the risk in an investment. Rather than compute an expected value for an asset that that tries to reflect the different possible outcomes, we could provide information on what the value of the asset will be under each outcome or at least a subset of outcomes. We will begin this section by looking at the simplest version which is an analysis of an asset’s value under three scenarios – a best case, most likely case and worse case – and then extend the discussion to look at scenario analysis more generally. We will move on to examine the use of decision trees, a more complete approach to dealing with discrete risk. We will close the chapter by evaluating Monte Carlo simulations, the most complete approach of assessing risk across the spectrum. Scenario Analysis The expected cash flows that we use to value risky assets can be estimated in one or two ways. They can represent a probability-weighted...
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...Organization Culture Analysis Elizabeth Keenan BUS610: Organizational Behavior (MOC1451B) Shawna Wentlandt December 22, 2014 Observable artifacts, espoused values, and enacted values analysis discovers a great measure of units to the look which unite to establish total organizational culture. It mentions the broad culture inside a company or organization, and is frequently as well related to for corporate culture (Gimenez-Espin, Jiménez-Jiménez, & Martínez-Costa, 2013). Organizational cultures is the arrangement of the set of beliefs, values, and norms, conjoined with symbols as adopted consequences and personalities, that symbolizes the specific role of an organization, and allows the circumstance for process within them and through them. In this assignment, I will be discuss an organizational culture analysis of observable artifacts, espoused values, and enacted values of my past or present employment. The observable artifacts of a culture are the visible organization linked on them. It consisted of symbolic representation, observances, philology, and interpersonal specs which characterized a sort of living that admits captions, stories, and jargon. Stories are one method of channelizing cultural artifacts through explicating dichotomies, equations, bias and ancient issues. They produce individuality, form firm structures, and apply a feel of belonging (Baack, 2012). Two striking illustrations of observable artifacts that ascend Birch Tree Nursing Home in Clinton...
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...Exotic Adventure Inc.: Amazon River Voyages Case Synopsis Exotic Adventures Inc. (EAI) is offering Amazon River voyages during the low-water season in October. However, early reports from agents in Brazil have warned that water levels are unusually low due to El Niño. They also received conflicting report from agents in Peru stating that the water levels were satisfactory and have been traversing the river just fine. Currently, EAI has a total of 99 passengers booked for these voyages. A decision needs to be made on whether to proceed with the voyages or to cancel them (Shaw, 1999). State the Assignment Question Based on the information provided in this case study, should EAI proceed with the booked voyages or cancel it? Case Analysis In this case study, EAI needs to determine the most advantageous course of action under conditions of uncertainty. EAI has planned a new voyage that they have very little experience and knowledge in because they have only run routes during the high-water season. For safety reasons, the vessel can only operate in waters with adequate depth for the draft. Early in September, EAI began receiving reports that water levels were low due to El Niño. This information was being provided by agents in Brazil, however, reports from agents in Peru were contradictory saying that the water levels are fine and are being used. Currently, there are 99 passengers booked for the trip and it is five days away from departure. The first option is to cancel...
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