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What Would Happen If the Bank of Mexico Didn't Control the Inflation

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Efectos de las importaciones/exportaciones en la Economía

De acuerdo con el método de los gastos del cálculo del producto interno bruto, PIB anual de una economía es la suma total de C + I + G + (X - M), donde C, I y G representa el gasto de consumo, la inversión de capital y el gasto público, respectivamente.

Si bien todos esos términos son importantes en el contexto de una economía, echemos un vistazo más de cerca a término (X - M), que representa a las exportaciones menos las importaciones o las exportaciones netas. Si las exportaciones superan a las importaciones, la cifra de las exportaciones netas sería positivo, lo que indica que el país tiene un superávit comercial. Si las exportaciones son menos de las importaciones, la cifra de las exportaciones netas sería negativo, y la nación tiene un déficit comercial.

Las exportaciones netas positivas contribuyen al crecimiento económico, algo que es intuitivamente fácil de entender. Más exportaciones significan una mayor producción de las fábricas e instalaciones industriales, así como un mayor número de personas empleadas para mantener estas fábricas en funcionamiento. La recepción de los ingresos de exportación también representa un ingreso de fondos en el país, lo que estimula el gasto del consumidor y contribuye al crecimiento económico.
Por el contrario, las importaciones se consideran un lastre para la economía, ya que se puede medir por la ecuación del PIB. Las importaciones representan una salida de recursos de un país, ya que son los pagos realizados por las empresas locales (los importadores) a las entidades de ultramar (los exportadores).

Una economía sana, entonces, es una donde tanto las exportaciones como las importaciones están creciendo, ya que esto suele indicar la fuerza económica y un superávit comercial sostenible o déficit. Si las exportaciones están creciendo muy bien, pero las importaciones han disminuido significativamente, se puede indicar que el resto del mundo está en mejor forma que la economía nacional. Por el contrario, si las exportaciones caen bruscamente pero las importaciones surgen, esto puede indicar que la economía nacional está yendo mejor que los mercados de ultramar. El déficit comercial de Estados Unidos, por ejemplo, tiende a empeorar cuando la economía está creciendo con fuerza. Déficit comercial crónico del país no ha impedido que siga siendo uno de los países más productivos del mundo.

Sin embargo, un creciente nivel de las importaciones y un creciente déficit comercial tiene un efecto negativo en una variable económica clave - el nivel de la moneda nacional frente a las monedas extranjeras, o el tipo de cambio.

Efecto del Tipo de Cambio

La interrelación entre las importaciones y las exportaciones de un país y su tipo de cambio , es una complicada debido a la retroalimentación entre ellos. El tipo de cambio tiene un efecto en el superávit comercial (o déficit) , que a su vez afecta a la tasa de cambio, y así sucesivamente. En general, sin embargo , una moneda local más débil estimula las exportaciones y encarece las importaciones . Por el contrario , una moneda nacional fuerte dificulta las exportaciones y hace las importaciones más baratas.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100813/interesting-facts-about-imports-and-exports.asp#ixzz3nel3XINO http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100813/interesting-facts-about-imports-and-exports.asp#ixzz3nejoAnm5 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contractionary-policy.asp#ixzz3neeypuMb http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/seigniorage.asp#ixzz3nedTe700 La inflación es un enemigo letal de la economía. Su principal efecto es el incremento general de productos y servicios, por lo tanto los ingresos ya no serán suficientes.
¿Porqué la inflación se hace presente?
Este fenómeno se presenta principalmente cuando la masa monetaria circulante se incrementa, es decir existe más efectivo en manos de todos , esto provoca una alza en los precios de mayor consumo pero también el incremento de precios se debe a la baja producción de ciertos artículos. Tal fue el caso del aguacate hace algunas semanas, debido a que había poco producto en el mercado su precio llegó a elevarse hasta un 60%.
En algunos casos la alta demanda de ciertos productos provocan inflación en los mismos, por el temor a que puedan llegar en un momento dado a ser escasos.
¿Quién interviene en momentos de alta inflación?
Cuando la inflación se hace presente, el Banco Central (que en esté caso sería el Banco de México) interviene elevando las tasas de interés; esto se hace con la finalidad de encarecer el efectivo circulante y los créditos, de forma que quienes usaron el crédito esté se encarece y los obliga a pagar más rápido. Por otro lado quienes son inversionistas ven las oportunidades de acrecentar sus ganancias ya que si invierten ganarán intereses. Está es una forma generalizada de repatriar masa monetaria a la banca y por lo tanto poniéndole un freno a la inflación.

https://eldiariodebankyoung.wordpress.com/2011/08/19/¿como-se-controla-la-inflacion/

https://youtu.be/nra8m26E1Pg

Seguido de la disminución del poder adquisitivo llevaría una depresión de la moneda lo cual incrementaría las exportaciones por la baja de precios y reduciría las importaciones. Esto expandiría la economía muy rápidamente, exactamente como paso en los 20s con la bolsa de valores de Nueva York. Los bienes extranjeros tendrían una inflación de precios excesivo lo cual suma a la ya dañina carestía. El crecimiento expeditado no controlado o regulado puede llegar a formar burbujas, accidentes o recesiones. Acordando con la formula del PIB= C + G + I + (X-M), la suma del consumo privado, gasto publico, inversiones, y exportaciones netas forman la economía nacional. El consumo privado se vería invalido por la carestía, el gasto publico solo seria valido subiendo los impuestos, las inversiones no serian emitidas en la moneda nacional o serian mudadas al extranjero por la incertidumbre de los inversionistas y las exportaciones saldrían afectadas cuando el mercado nacional sea incompetente por la falta de importaciones y presencia internacional. México se vería aislado de los beneficios de el gasto capital de los negocios y de las importaciones como maquinarias y tecnologías entrando ahora en un Déficit Comercial y muy probablemente un déficit fiscal y déficit de presupuesto encogiendo y comprimiendo la economía. El ciclo de auge y caída (boom and bust) sin ser controlado llevaría a una caída similar a la de la Gran Depresión de 1929.

La falta de demanda en la moneda solo sumaria una crisis de deuda externa al emitir bonos extranjeros, siendo estos los únicos con demanda, México deberá pagar el interés o tener que dejar a millones de inversionistas con las manos vacías sumando todavía mas a la incertidumbre y reduciendo aun mas la inversión. La historia nos enseña en Alemania en 1920 emitió bonos e imprimió mas papel moneda para pagar sus deudas del tratado de Versalles (deuda externa) llevándolo a uno de los peores casos de hiperinflación en la historia, al final su única solución fue emitir una nueva moneda, sin embargo el daño ya estaba hecho. La falta de una politica monetaria que reversa e impida la hiperinflación dejaría a millones de mexicanos sin ahorros, su incentivo de trabajar y por lo tanto sus hipotecas. La hiperinflación traería una era de pobreza extrema y una redistribución de la riqueza, el peso mexicano seria olvidado y los ciudadanos buscarían estabilidad en la dolarización. Un ejemplo existente de la gravedad de una hiperinflación descontrolada: Alemania 1921, niños jugando con bloques de dinero.

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