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Whether the Interest Rate Pushes Equity Risk Premium Rate Up?

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Submitted By lijinq
Words 3534
Pages 15
1. Introduction: We know the fact that low interest rate affects stock market price. Low interest rate decreases the cost of capital and increases the confidence of investors.
The equity risk premium is the "extra return" that investors collectively demand for investing their money in stocks instead of holding it in a risk less or close to risk less investment. As a consequence, equity risk premium reflects both investor hopes and fears about stocks, rising as the fear factor increases. As a measure the equity risk premium can be an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. And the size of the premium will be a standard to compensate with a higher premium in the stock market. Thus, a portfolio manager when the equity risk premium increases in the future, the investors will sell out stock market because the stocks are over priced. So the legislators and pension administrators decide how much to set aside to meet future pension obligations, based upon assessments of equity risk premiums.
However the history data of ERP (Equity Risk Premium) from Federal Reserve System shows it keeps low and stable state but increases suddenly since 2006. At the same time the Federal Funds Effective Rate goes down and keeps low state.
We know that interest rate is a way to control inflation. Inflation is a factor causes too much money chasing too few goods. “Changes in the federal funds rate affect the behavior of consumers and businesses, but the stock market is also affected,” Said by Jim Mueller (2013), PhD Finance in Washington State University. “As the risk-free rate goes up, the total return required for investing in stocks also increases.” In other words, the "risk-free" rate of return goes up, making these investments more desirable. But is the low interest rate push the equity risk premium rate goes up?

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