Report Organization

Date: April 14th, 2010
Subject: Which Country Next for Whole Foods A Market Screening Exercise
Section I. Introduction

1. The Objective and Scope of the Study

Objective:
The objective of this study performed is to provide clarity, insightful analysis, and recommendations Whole Foods Market will use when selecting a preferred destination for opening a new “natural and organic foods” grocery market. The project focus revolved around achieving long-term success in a market for Whole Foods. The analysis was to determine the most lucrative candidate country in which to introduce a three-store market, keeping all stores no further than ten miles apart.

Chronological Scope:
To ensure the relevance of information presented in the report, only the most recent available data was analyzed. The indicator analysis covers years 2006 through 2009. Effective evaluation of indicators requires the comparison of the three countries within the same time frame for each individual indicator.

Geographical Scope:
The report compares and contrasts the following countries: ➢ Brazil ➢ South Korea ➢ Poland

Functional Scope:
This report provides an insight into the international market screening process for Whole Foods. It outlines specific procedures that were undertaken in order to evaluate each prospective expansion destination and eliminate the two least viable options.

In order for Whole Foods to deem a market successful, it must be able to achieve and sustain the following factors: • Provide the highest quality of natural and organic products available • Satisfy and delight customers • Build a supportive and winning team • Create wealth through profits and growth • Promote the health of stakeholders through healthy eating education

Ensuring a successful market introduction required the assessment of a variety of factors such as: • Income • Education • Urbanization • Transportation and accessibility • Ease of doing business • Population • Strategic location • Overall quality of life

The project’s objective involved the entrance into and establishment of a market. Therefore, emphasis on long-term growth potential and market capacity (growth rate and population growth potential) were not critical objectives throughout the project.

2. Research Methodology
Once it was determined which critical indicators could potentially be used in evaluating each market, the next objective of the project was to find the most current and credible data. It is important to recognize that the project was limited to using only secondary data. This made it crucial that the sources specifically indentified the variables upon which the evaluation was dependent.

Since many of these desired indicators were extremely specific, available data was often broad and at times limited. It became essential to incorporate modifications and creative analysis if the desired variables were to be measured. The two sources that proved to be the most helpful were the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank websites.

1.3 Project Limitations
The two most critical limitations encountered throughout the project were condensing the deemed necessary components into five indicators, and adjusting those components into accommodating the available secondary information. Both of these limitations stemmed from the lack of time and the scarcity of resources. This prevented primary research that was otherwise inaccessible.

In addition, this report didn’t attempt to evaluate the influence of political stability. Any influence will be addressed later in the research process. Finally, all company background information was limited to what was currently available on the Whole Foods website. The use of outside sources was prohibited.

1.4 Executive Summary
The tactical approach to this study involved the following: establishing five key indicators, assigning a weight to each factor that represented its relative importance, and compiling a composite score for each alternative candidate. This was designed to identify the target market best suited for Whole Foods to enter based upon the location which registered the highest composite score.

Section 2: Presentation of Key Data

2.1 Key Indicators for Analysis

Gross Domestic Product-Purchasing Power Parity Per Capita
Defined as the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country in one year, divided by the average population for the year cited. It is then valued in International Dollars deriving from purchasing power on a global platform.

The reason for selecting GDP-PPP per capita is that it was believed to provide the best financial measuring stick for any candidate country. This indicator provides a measurement of a country’s wealth as goods produced and sold, and then values this amount as an indicator of purchasing power. Because Whole Foods is a US-based company, having the ability to understand a country’s actual purchasing power is critical due to the potential cost variation of imported goods.

Human Development Index
Defined as a measure of three aspects of human development; life expectancy and health, knowledge, and standard of living.

A second important indicator used in screening markets is the Human Development Index or HDI. In order for a person to adapt and appreciate the benefits of a Whole Foods’ lifestyle, there is a certain basic quality of life that must be present. If an individual does not have access to clean drinking water or necessary medical care, the Whole Foods’ lifestyle likely will not appeal. Secondly, individuals who currently enjoy a high quality of life are more likely to invest in themselves, preserving that particular lifestyle.

Urban Population as a Percent of Total Population
Defined as the percentage of a total population living in urban areas.

Placing three stores within a ten-mile distance of one another is a necessary condition for Whole Foods. Assessing the degree to which a country’s population is located within urban areas becomes highly valued in determining store placement. In addition, placing stores in urbanized areas would have a positive impact on the process of shipping goods. Finally, allowing for high consumer access via urbanized areas satisfies the otherwise necessary condition of transportation or vehicle access that could be challenging in more rural markets.

Ease of Doing Business Index
Defined as a measure of regulations directly affecting businesses and does not directly measure more general conditions such as a nation’s proximity to large markets, quality of infrastructure, inflation, or crime.

Failing to research such barriers prior to entering a market can prove to be detrimental. Whole Foods has an emphasis on being able to provide a specific operation model. Coupled with the component of being a publicly traded US company, any barrier that presents high cost or time constraint challenges was thought be a deal breaker, regardless of how promising the upside of a market may be.

Labor Force with Tertiary Education
Defined as a portion of the working population that has a college degree or better.

Prior selection of indicators focused upon infrastructure and demographic components that correlated with the Whole Foods’ model. However, this report still needed a component that provided insight into the level of sophistication of a country’s population beyond HDI. Ideally, this report was seeking an indicator that could provide information regarding natural and organic food purchases. Having been unable to obtain sufficient reliable statistics on such purchases, it was determined education within the work force was the best alternative indicator in correlating purchases of natural and organic foods.

An educated workforce within a market is more likely to embrace advances in technology. It is also more likely that such individuals will understand and value continuing self-education. These tech savvy and education-valuing individuals will ultimately provide more channels in communicating the eventual marketing message.

Now having identified the critical indicators needed for market screening, the report transitions into the actual assessment using these indicators in the selected candidate markets.

2.2 Key Indicator Date Table

|Country |South Korea |Brazil |Poland |
| | | | |
|GDP-PPP per capita (2009) |$27,791 |$10,456 |$17,989 |
|Weight |.25 |.25 |.25 |
|Score |3.725 |2.6 |3.35 |
| | | | |
|HDI (2010) |26 |75 |41 |
|Weight |.25 |.25 |.25 |
|Score |3.9 |2.675 |3.525 |
| | | | |
|Urban Population as a % of whole |80% |83% |62% |
|Weight |.20 |.20 |.20 |
|Score |2.82 |2.86 |1.98 |
| | | | |
|Ease of Doing Business |19 |129 |72 |
|Weight |.15 |.15 |.15 |
|Score |2.46 |0.81 |1.665 |
| | | | |
|Labor Force w/ Tertiary Education |24.90% |6.90% |12.90% |
|Weight |.15 |.15 |.15 |
|Score |1.05 |0.24 |0.54 |
| | | | |
|Total Combined Indicator Score |13.955 |9.185 |11.06 |
| | | | |

2.3 Explanation of Indicator Weights and Composite Scores

The next objective of the report was to assign a weighted value specific to each indicator. The report took a market’s specific data score, applied the weighting factor, and calculated a composite score. These individual scores were accumulated in order to produce a combined score for each country. This formed the basis for the recommendation of an optimum market for Whole Foods.

Weighting of GDP-PPP Per Capita

It was concluded that of the five indicators, the highest values would come from indicators that dealt directly with a country’s financial health.

. These two indicators accounted for exactly half of the available value within the framework, with each receiving 25%. These indicators provided insight both directly and indirectly to a market’s current economic status. Ultimately, in order for Whole Foods to generate revenues leading to market success, having a healthy economy was the most important factor in valuing markets.

Outside of addressing the primary issue of financial health within a market, secondary conditions remained of high importance in valuing the remaining indicators. The accessibility of and within a market was the condition that was deemed most critical for Whole Foods’ success. In this aspect, accessibility referred to a wide range of meanings. Each was nearly as important as the others. From a function approach, accessibility meant a condensed population in physically accessing a whole foods location. It also accounted for the physical accessibility of Whole Foods in obtaining a location with a market, as well as importing of goods to that location. The physical accessibility was valued through Urbanization of a Population versus Total Population receiving a 20% weight, and Ease of Doing Business within a country receiving a 15% value.

The last indicator of Labor Force with Tertiary Education looked at market accessibility from an indirect perspective. The importance of this indicator is clearly reflected on the Whole Foods’ official web page. It is stated that one of the main criteria in selecting their ideal location is a “large number of college educated residents” (Whole Foods Market). While determining how indirectly accessible a market was, this report determined the education level amongst the work force gave the project the best access to both. Common logic was used to develop the following theory: a more educated population has a better chance of understanding and valuing the message of education from Whole Foods. Second, an indirect correlation was used in the theory that a higher education rate within a market’s total work force would translate to more advanced technology. This would correlate with the opening of channels to online advertising. In the valuation of this indirect accessibility indicator, a 15% weighting was awarded.

The report took a logical approach in the composite scoring having now calculated the weighting of each indicator. While many indicators provided a hard number or statistic such as total dollars or percentage of population, it was the actual ranking within the world that was used in the composite score calculation. Each factor looked at the individual ranking with the smaller number being considered more favorable, and used that index in subtracting from the total nations having been ranked. It than took that reverse ranking and multiplied it by the factor weighting. Finally all composite scores were divided by 10, allowing for the shrinkage of the decimals and providing easily identifiable scorings. All rankings factored roughly 180 nations with the exception of Tertiary Education providing only 99 nations. An example is Brazil’s 75th rated Human Development Index, subtracted from the 182 nations, then multiplied by the .25 factor weight, and divided by 10 for a net HDI composite of 2.675.

Table 2.2 provides an overview of the selected indicators, their weightings accordingly, and the assessment of the three candidate markets. In almost every category and in the overall scoring, South Korea dominated both Poland and Brazil. South Korea clearly appears to be the front-runner candidate. The one exception being Brazil’s slightest of edges regarding urbanization level. Despite being located within the typically advantageous European continent and having a recent trend of increasing growth, Poland failed to outscore South Korea in any indicator sector and consequently overall. Brazil suffered gravely in the overall scoring, even with boosting the top rankings in the urbanization sector. This was largely in part to low income, poor education, and particularly low ease of doing business scoring due to corruption. This report takes a closer look at each of these individual scorings upon entering section 3.1.

3.1 The Market Screening Process

Brazil:
Brazil is the lowest ranked on GDP Per Capita and the Human Development Index. The evidence shows that with a GDP Per Capita of US $10,456, consumers really don’t have discretionary or disposable income needed for higher priced goods at Whole Foods. Although Brazil has passed new regulations concerning the improvement of people’s health, there will be no market if the individuals just cannot afford the cost of organic foods.

The HDI ranking of 75 is well behind the others and proves that the quality of health from people there is less than in other available markets. Unfortunately, Brazil actually dropped five places as compared to where they once were at 70. The downward trend only shows that other countries are improving the health of their nation at a better pace than Brazil. Having a Labor Force w/ Tertiary Education of 6.90% is evidence that their people are also the least educated. Whole Foods should only enter a foreign market that contains healthy consumers concerned about their eating habits and educated enough to know why Whole Foods exists, along with the benefits derived from organic foods offered.

An Urbanized Population of 83% is sufficient and has enough density to sustain the location needs of Whole Foods. However, the Ease of Business ranking of 129 is the worst available. The extra concern over how tough it may be to open a store there is very important in the decision making process. This will certainly affect Brazil and will most likely have a negative impact.

South Korea:
South Korea is ahead of Brazil and Poland in GDP Per Capita by an overwhelming distance. At US $27,791, the consumers in Korea have much more discretionary income that will allow them to spend the extra money needed for expensive organic items sold at Whole Foods. Regardless of other factors that may show which country has the proper market to enter, consumers must be able to afford the purchase of more expensive goods.

Ranked 26 on the Human Development Index, South Korea displays greater life expectancy and health, knowledge, and standards of living. This index provides more accurate research of how healthy a country is. It is important because Whole Foods will thrive in a region of people who are healthy. People more educated and concerned about their health will be a target of the market Whole Foods desires to enter. Having a Labor Force w/ Tertiary Education of 24.90% is considerably more than the others. The higher percentage translates into a more educated public which will be another characteristic of Whole Foods’ target consumers.

An Urbanized Population of 80% will be more than sufficient in providing enough to support the three stores within ten miles which Whole Foods intends. This suggestion is resulting from an industry analysis and is something this report must take into consideration. South Korea’s Ease of Business rating of 19 is also a clear leader compared to the other two countries being compared. Any company, regardless of what industry they are in, should be concerned about the ease of doing business and entrance into a market of another country.

Poland:
Poland is split between Brazil and South Korea with a GDP Per Capita of US $17,989. This statistic shows that South Korea has more disposable income than others, but it still may not be enough to convince consumers they can splurge on more expensive food items.

The Human Development Index ranking for Poland is 41 out of 182, which is relatively good as compared to most other countries. It still does not beat out South Korea and Poland also dropped two positions on their previous HDI ranking of 39. Although Poland may be improving the health of its people, there are other countries who have taken the matter more seriously. Having a Labor Force w/ Tertiary Education of 12.90%, Poland still cannot compete with South Korea. There is a slightly educated public which can become more informed with the proper marketing of knowledge, but this is a challenge which may be better to avoid altogether.

The only area where Poland placed dead last was with an Urbanized Population of 62%. The more rural population will raise issues with market analyses that shows Whole Foods should have multiple stores within a certain area. The Ease of Business rating of 72 should not cause that much concern. Although it might not be as easy to enter a market as such in South Korea, it would be more manageable than Brazil. With the correct avenues in place, Whole Foods could certainly find themselves interested in Poland.

3.2 The Recommended Market

Through the numbers that are given above, South Korea appears to be the best market for Whole Foods to enter. The three countries assessed by the given indicators are fairly close together. The range between the best market, South Korea, and the worst market, Brazil, in weighted score is 13.955 and 9.185. The difference between these two countries is only 4.77 points. Poland came in a close second with a total weighted score of 11.06. South Korea is the best market choice because it has the highest numbers from GDP-PPP Per Capita, Ease of Doing Business Index, and Labor Force with Tertiary Education, which make up 65% of the total weight. South Korea also excelled in four out of the five given indicators. Brazil’s Urban Population as a Percent of Total Population actually exceeded South Korea’s. This fact is not necessarily beneficial to Whole Foods as it will not be servicing the entire population.

An important aspect that is highly applicable in finding a market for Whole foods is education. As stated before, Whole Foods directly looks for markets with higher populations of college educated people. South Korea has roughly 3.5 times the Labor Force with Tertiary Education than Brazil and doubles that of Poland. The Whole Foods website does not directly explain why they look for these types of populations when expanding. As previously mentioned, people who have a college educations are more adept to taking care of their health. They are more open to learning about new things and are more likely to adapt to a marketing message.

Whole Foods should not enter markets in Brazil and Poland for three specific reasons. 1. GDP-PPP Per Capita is significantly lower than South Korea’s 2. Labor Force with Tertiary Education is greatly below South Korea’s 3. It is much harder to do business than South Korea as seen by the Ease of Doing Business Index
The three indicators all show what Brazil and Poland are lacking to make them a good prospect for Whole Foods. These indicators are also closely intertwined. Brazil, for instance, has the lowest Labor Force with Tertiary Education and GDP-PPP Per Capita. As the numbers show, South Korea is the exact opposite. We can then correlate that a larger labor force with college education increases the GDP-PPP Per Capita. In fact, 26% of Brazil’s population lives below the poverty level (CIA.gov). The same can be seen with Poland. A lower college education workforce shows a lower GDP-PPP Per Capita.

Early in the analysis process, South Korea distinguished itself from Brazil and Poland. The three major determining factors showing South Korea as the best market for Whole Foods to enter were: GDP- PPP Per Capita, Labor Force with Tertiary Education, and the Ease of Doing Business Index. These indicators show that South Korea is a wealthier country, higher educated, and that it is easier to do business within the country. GDP-PPP Per Capita and a Labor Force with Tertiary Education eludes to the fact that South Korean’s have more discretionary income than residents of Brazil and Poland. This ultimately creates a better business investment opportunity for Whole Foods.

Appendix 1 – Project Sources

Brazil Population below poverty line - Economy. (n.d.). Index Mundi - Country Facts. Retrieved April 20,2010, from http://www.indexmundi.com/brazil/population_below_poverty_line.

Human Development Report 2009. (2009). United Nations Development Programme. Retrieved April 15, 2010 from http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2009/

Indicators | Data | The World Bank. (n.d.). Data | The World Bank. Retrieved April 18, 2010, fromhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator

Market Trends - Organic Trade Association. (n.d.). Organic Trade Association. Retrieved April 21, 2010, from http://www.ota.com/organic/mt.html

Real Estate Development | WholeFoodsMarket.com. (n.d.). Whole Foods Market: Natural and Organic Grocery. Retrieved April 19, 2010, http://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/company/realestate.php

South Korean Population Distribution Cities/Rural/Urban . (n.d.). Paul and Bernice Noll Website. Retrieved April 21, 2010, from http://www.paulnoll.com/Korea/History/South-

The World Factbook. (n.d.). The Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved April 19, 2010, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/br.html

World Development Indicators Variables: L. (n.d.). U-M Personal World Wide Web Server. Retrieved April 19, 2010, from http://www-personal.umich.edu/~graceyor/doctemp/wdi/wdivar/wdivar12.html

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