Would an exit from the EU benefit the British economy?
Advocates of the UK leaving the EU claim that there would be little trouble negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU once it left, because the UK has a large trade deficit with the rest of the Union. If trade barriers between Britain and the remaining member-states were erected upon exit, the EU would lose more exports earnings from Britain than vice versa. At the same time, the UK would be freed from the burdens of EU regulation and hence able to boost trade with faster growing parts of the world, nations such as China, US and emerging markets that include India that are not part of Europe. This could be done by eliminating tariffs and signing trade agreements without the constraints of EU membership. Undermining this assertion is the belief that the UK is a big enough economy to be an effective trade negotiator in its own right. As a result it might be concluded that the UK would see little impact from leaving the EU except perhaps a minor reduction in trade while new arrangements were made.
However, it would be ill judged to assume that the UK would be able to dictate terms with the EU simply because it is running a trade deficit. Primarily, the EU buys half of Britain's exports whereas the UK accounts for little over 10 per cent of exports from the rest of the EU, so the UK would be in a weak position to negotiate access on its terms. Furthermore, it could be argued that the UK's access to many non-EU markets comes as a result of its EU membership. On its own, the UK only accounts for 4% of global exports, compared to over 15% from the EU and this is declining as emerging markets become increasingly integrated into the global economy. Therefore, even trade that is not within the EU is at risk and the UK faces a potential significant reduction in trade that will likely cause a reduction in growth