Ups and Downs: Valuing Cyclical and Commodity Companies Aswath Damodaran Stern School of Business, New York University September 2009 Ups and Downs: Valuing Cyclical and Commodity Companies Abstract Cyclical and commodity companies share a common feature, insofar as their value is often more dependent on the movement of a macro variable (the commodity price or the growth in the underlying economy) than it is on firm specific characteristics. Thus, the value of an oil company is inextricably linked
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DCF analysis The value of a company today, based on how much money it’s going to make in the future Dividend discount model (DDM) Free cash flow to equity – determine the fair value of companies One must consider * Future sales growth, profit margins * Discount rate – depends on a risk-free interest rate 1. Forecast period & forecasting revenue growth * How far we should project cash flows * Excessive return period * One can guess based on the company’s competitive
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use historical cost accounting and why certain firms switch between a numbers of accounting techniques. • “Prediction” of accounting practice means that the theory predicts “unobserved phenomena”. Watts and Zimmerman start their book with a fundamental statement of The Role of Theory (Chapter 1).They asserts that the objective of positive accounting theory is to explain and predict accounting practice,(p.2) “Unobserved phenomena” are not necessarily future phenomena; they include phenomena
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Mavis Lei JetBlue Airways IPO Valuation Introduction and Recommendation In July 1999, David Neeleman had announced his plan to launch a new airline company that would bring “ humanity back to air travel” despite the fact that U.S. airline industry had lot failures over the past 20 years. JetBlue had target its strategy and operating philosophy by offering customers low –fares tickets, high performance of customer service, providing new aircrafts and focused on point-to-point service to large
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Case 1: Warren Buffet a) Buffett portrays intrinsic value as “The only logical way to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses.” (Bruner et al, 2009 p.7) It has accorded such importance because it can be used to estimate the value of the businesses ongoing operations and not the companies stock. Through the calculation of the discounted cash flows, and moreover the net present value of the forecasted performance, we can therefore figure out whether the investment holds
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Jarett Burwell Seminar: Issues in Corporate Finance 9/18/14 1. The meaning behind the changes in the stock price for Scottish power on the acquisition announcement was the market reacting to the company being taken over by Warren Buffett and his company, which had a successful track record of managing companies into successful business strategies, the deal the had a positive effect on both buyers and sellers. The intrinsic value of PacifiCorp was the elephant that Warren Buffett was looking
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THE EVOLUTION OF STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY OVER TIME: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE Kian-Ping Lim Universiti Malaysia Sabah and Monash University and Robert Brooks Monash University Background This paper provides an insight into the empirical literature as pertains the evolution of stock market efficiency over time, with a keen focus on the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The authors provide a systematic review of the correlation between several financial factors namely:
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Session 2 Week 2 - FNCE 90062 Capstone Studies in Finance Session 2 Comparator Analysis “Comps” An opinion of value • A valuation is a well-founded opinion of value. It should be based on market evidence, but it is not a market result itself. • In some cases, the asset is not traded in an active market or exchange. e.g., privately held companies, real estate. Here, the concept of value may be different, depending on the type of valuation. (e.g., valuation for tax vs valuation
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THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY CROCS, INC. Case Study Report ¹ SUBMITTED TO PROF. NEIL COHEN School of Business and Public Management The George Washington University BY Anil Kumar Cheerla FINA 6224 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT WASHINGTON, DC January 26, 2011 Q1: Consider which comparable peers are good matches and use them to perform a multiples analysis, calculating and defending an estimate of Crocs value. Soln: Comparable companies analysis – Done to determine appropriate valuation
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AIRTHREAD CONNECTIONS Case Issues 1) Please describe the methodological approach that should be used to value AirThread (should Ms Zhang utilize WACC, ACV, or some combination thereof). How should the cash flows be valued from 2008 through 2012? How should the terminal value or going concern value be estimated? How should the “non-operating investments” in equity affiliates be accounted for in the valuation? Using alternative valuation methods for deriving the “non-operating investment” value
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