Unit 4 Assignment 1 1. Read the following article Agans, R., & Shaffer, L. (1994). The hindsight bias: The role of the availability heuristic and perceived risk. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 15(4), 439-449. “ This article can be located by using the Kaplan Online Library article search feature. Click here to access the Kaplan Library. You may also access the Kaplan Library by following these instructions: 1. Click the Academic Tools tab 2. Click Online
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Hindsight bias is an individual overestimating their ability to have had predicted the outcome in a situation after said situation has occurred. When hindsight bias was introduced in class, my ears immediately perked up. My uncle is a criminal defense attorney and has spoken (complained) about hindsight bias in jurors many times. Jurors are acquainted with, typically, a bad outcome before they even hear any of the evidence. Case in point, a man is on trial for murdering his wife. Jurors already
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Bias Indiana Wesleyan University School of Business and Leadership MGMT- 515: Business Communication Dr. Jeff Boyce Cognitive Bias The cognitive bias that affects my critical decision making processes is the Hindsight and Curse of Knowledge bias. I predict outcomes without acknowledging the correct outcome. I often use this bias when I watch sports. I am an avid fan of basketball, and I typically like to predict the outcome of games and even the entire season. Cognitive bias is processing
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One consequence of creeping determinism, Fischhoff argued, could be seen when hindsight judges were asked to estimate the probability of an event while ignoring outcome data; that is, when they were asked to retrieve their foresight state-of-mind. Most research, including Fischhoffs, has indicated that hindsight judges cannot accurately recall foresight knowledge. A study by Hasher, Attig, and Alba (1981), however, demonstrated that initial foresight knowledge was not erased from memory, it
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overestimation of one's abilities and of the precision of one's forecasts. Overconfident people set overly narrow confidence intervals in making predictions. They tend to overweigh their own forecasts relative to those of others. The self-serving attribution bias, under which individuals attribute past successes to their own skills and past failures to bad luck, can lead to overconfidence. In the context of financial markets, the confidence of a self-attributing investor increases when public information is
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psychological concepts that I noticed over fall break were the theories of having hindsight bias, confirmation bias, overconfidence, and egocentrism. All four play an important role in characterizing a person’s personality and a necessary portrayal for observing another person’s behavior. The first psychological concept that I found myself experiencing over fall break is the concept of hindsight bias. For reference, hindsight bias, or the “I knew it all along” phenomenon, is the inclination after an event
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Confirmation Bias ii. Hindsight Bias iii. Escalation of Commitment iv. Positive (ego-centric) Illusions c. Emotion-related Biases i. Priming 6. The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking into account the prior probability ("base rate") of H and the total probability of evidence E. 7. The misconception of chance is another bias. Often, especially
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of 200 words. | Self-Esteem | A person’s evaluation of his or her self-concept. | | | | Self-Handicapping | Actions that people take to sabotage their performance and enhance their opportunity to excuse anticipated failure | | | | Hindsight Bias | The tendency, once an event has occurred, to overestimate out ability to have foreseen the outcome | | | | External Attribution | An attribution that locates the cause of an event to factors external to the person, such as luck, or other
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Researches have concluded that memories can be altered by misinformation, hindsight bias, encoding, and Deese-Roedigner-McDermott (DRM) paradigm, but scenarios also affect how we recall information. This leads us to question how reliable our memory actually is and whether we can prevent ourselves from altering our
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clear while reading was that negative thinking will produce a negative effect. A concept can be used to help understand the main purpose of something or to help explain it. An example of a concept in the story that stood out was the hindsight bias. The hindsight bias is the tendency to exaggerate after learning an outcome. On page 4 in the beginning of the third paragraph, Givoni was asked to move to a different room due to a mother needing to be near her children and he graciously agreed. After
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