...■ Fundamental Analysis: Fundamental analysis is a technique that attempts to determine a security’s value by focusing on underlying factors that affect a company's actual business and its future prospects. On a broader scope, you can perform fundamental analysis on industries or the economy as a whole. The term simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price movements Fundamental analysis serves to answer questions, such as: • Is the company’s revenue growing? • Is it actually making a profit? • Is it in a strong-enough position to beat out its competitors in the future? • Is it able to repay its debts? • Is management trying to "cook the books"? The term fundamental analysis is used most often in the context of stocks, but we can perform fundamental analysis on any security, from a bond to a derivative. As long as we look at the economic fundamentals, we are doing fundamental analysis. For the purpose of this tutorial, fundamental analysis always is referred to in the context of stocks. Intrinsic Value of Fundamental Analysis: Intrinsic value is one of the primary assumptions of fundamental analysis is that the price on the stock market does not fully reflect a stock’s “real” value. In financial jargon, this true value is known as the intrinsic value. For example, let’s say that a company’s stock was trading at $20. After doing extensive homework on the company, we determine...
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...eurojournals.com/finance.htm Fundamental Analysis Strategy and the Prediction of Stock Returns Jaouida Elleuch* Faculty of Economics and management sciences (FSEG), University of Sfax, Tunisia E-mail: Elleuchj@yahoo.fr Abstract This paper examines whether a simple fundamental analysis strategy based on historical accounting information can predict stock returns. The paper’s goal is to show that simple screens based on historical financial signals can shift the distribution of returns earned by an investor by separating eventual winners stocks from losers. Results show that historical accounting signals can be used to improve the entire distribution of future returns earned by an investor. In fact, despite the overall down activity of the market over the sample period chosen, results reveal that fundamental accounting signals can be used to discriminate from an overall sample generating future negative returns of -0,116 a winner portfolio that provide positive future return of 0,019 from a loser one generating a negative return of -0,229. The over-performance of the winner portfolio seems to be attributable to the ability of the fundamental signals to predict future earnings. In fact, results show that fundamental signals have a positive and significant correlation with future earnings performance and that the winner portfolio have a future earning’s realisation (0,100) that outperforms that of the loser portfolio (-0,012). Keywords: Fundamental Analysis, Market Efficiency, Stock...
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...Vol‐3 No. 1 March, 2013 The Fundamental Analysis: An Overview Sónia R. Bentes#, Raúl Navas* ISCAL, Av. Miguel Bombarda 20, 1069-035 Lisbon, Portugal smbentes@iscal.ipl.pt * COPORGEST, SA, Av. da Liberdade 245, 9º C 1250-143Lisbon, Portugal rdnavas@gmail.com Abstract - In this paper we discuss the fundamental analysis by covering a number of studies in this field of research. This constitutes a useful tool to evaluate the companies’ financial performance. Particularly, the discussion in this paper illustrates how this kind of approach can help in analyzing a companies’ stock price. Additionally, a debate on its potentialities is also provided. Keywords – Fundamental Analysis, Return on Equity, Return on Investment, Price Earnings Ratio, Price to Book Value # foreign competition in a particular sector in order to identify the best company of the sector. ii) Bottom-up approach: in this method, the analyst starts the searching analysis within a specific sector irrespective of its industry/region. The fundamental analysis is carried out with the aim of predicting company’s future performance. It is based on the belief that the market price of an asset tends to move towards its “real value” or its “intrinsic value”. Thus, if the intrinsic value of an asset is higher than its market value, there may be a situation where it is time to buy. Otherwise, investors should sell. In the next section, the theoretical framework of the fundamental analysis is reviewed. The paper ends with...
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...Was fundamental analysis redundant in the period during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)? 3/21/2014 ABC Was fundamental analysis redundant in the period during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)? Fundamental analysis is the process of evaluating the value of any security and certificate by analyzing the real time factors, which are based on qualitative and quantitative factors. Economic and the social factors also effect while you are finding out the intrinsic value of any security or asset. Fundamental analysis when made for evaluating the value of security all the factors that can affect the security considered like macroeconomic factors, microeconomic factors and the company based factors. Not only have the external factors about the internal factors also affected the value of any asset (Bedford, 2008). You need to consider in fundamental analysis: * Market analysis * Company analysis * Industry analysis For an investor the fundamental analysis is very important to invest in any asset or security. The investor when found the intrinsic value of security with its current value than this make easy for them to invest or not. Global financial crises are the period, which is experienced by the society, and the marketers, a situation of great difficulty in the world where nothing is stable in any state of the world. The economic situation in the global crises become worst and the purchase power of the customer reduces, and this is a difficult time for the...
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...Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Prime Bank Ltd. Technical analysis looks at the price movement of a security and uses this data to predict its future price movements. Fundamental analysis on the other hand looks at economic factors which are known as fundamentals. Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Prime Bank Ltd. Group:16 Department of Finance. Jagannath University, Dhaka Page Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Prime Bank Ltd. Submitted To, Kawser Ahmed Shiblu Lecturer Department of Finance Jagannath University, Dhaka Submitted By Uttam Golder On the behalf of Group: 16 Department of finance Jagannath University, Dhaka Department of Finance. Jagannath University, Dhaka Page i Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Prime Bank Ltd. List of Group Member Serial 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Name Uttam Golder Rajib Chandra Banik Md. Monir Hossain Joy Roy Choudhury Md. Al-Masur Rahaman Khan ID M 130203004 M 130203025 M 130203069 M 130203033 M 130203077 Department of Finance. Jagannath University, Dhaka Page ii Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Prime Bank Ltd. Letter of Transmittal February 15, 2015 Kawser Ahmed Shiblu Lecturer Department of Finance, Jagannath University, Dhaka Subject: - Submission of report on “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Prime Bank Ltd.” Dear Sir, With due respect, we would like to state that it is a matter of great pleasure and honor for us to submit our report on...
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...have used one of two approaches for asset valuation. One is “the firm-foundation theory”, and the other is “the castle-in-the-air theory”. The interesting point is, two theories appear to be mutually exclusive. The firm-foundation theory insists that each investment instrument has a firm anchor of something called “intrinsic value”, which can be determined by careful analysis of present conditions and future prospects. Williams, writer of “The Theory of Investment Value”, went on to argue that the intrinsic value of stock was equal to the present value of its entire future dividend. The theory is reasonable, because the greater present dividends and increasing rate, the greater the value of the stock. The castle-in-the-air-theory focuses on psychic values, professional investors analyze how the crowd of investors is likely to behave in the future and how during periods of optimism they tend to build their hopes into castles in the air. In other words, the value of stock would be decided by mass psychology rather than intrinsic value. Chapter 5: Technical and Fundamental Analysis Technical analysis is the method of predicting the...
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...Conglomerate., Inc. 123 Main St. Boston, MA 12345 Dear Mr. Soandso: Enclosed is the report you requested, giving our opinion regarding future acquisitions and the analysis involved in the process. Please let me know if you have questions or need further information. Yours truly, Brian Smith Enclosure Future analytical approach It is my opinion, that when dealing with future acquisitions, financial and accounting analysis is simply not enough. Therefore, it is my recommendation that an aggregate analytical approach include not just fundamental analysis, but also; corporate culture, synergy and customer analysis. Corporate Culture Analysis Future acquisitions need to carefully examine the morale and culture of the company being sought after. An overly dependent employee base that clings to its President and CEO presents a certain risk in production loss should the CEO exit the firm. As with the acquisition of Bainbridge House, morale dropped and attrition skyrocketed after Mr. Bainbridge’s passing. A high attrition rate and low morale has been shown to negatively affect production and overall efficiency. Therefore, a careful analysis needs to identify the independence and competitiveness of company employees. Synergy Analysis It is not enough to purchase a company based on fundamentals alone. If the company cultures of your firm and the firm being acquired are incompatible, valuable time will be lost looking for personnel replacements. Incompatibilities...
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...Efficient Market Hypothesis Efficient Market - Introduction An efficient capital market is a market that is efficient in processing information Assumptions for Market to be Efficient 1. 2. In other words, the market quickly and correctly adjusts to new information In an efficient market, the prices of securities observed at any time are based on “correct” evaluation of all information available at that time In an efficient market, prices immediately and fully reflect all available information Large no. of investors analyze and value securities for profit New information comes to the market in a random fashion 3. 4. Stock Prices adjust quickly to the new information Stock Prices should available information reflect all Definition "In an efficient market, competition among the many intelligent participants leads to a situation where, at any point in time, actual prices of individual securities already reflect the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which, as of now, the market expects to take place in the future. In other words, in an efficient market at any point in time the actual price of a security will be a good estimate of its intrinsic value.“ - Professor Eugene Fama Efficient Market Hypothesis - Forms Efficient Market Hypothesis Weak Form Semi-Strong Form Strong Form The EMH Graphically All information, public & private • In this diagram, the circles represent the amount of information that each...
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...Case Analysis: Dimensional Fund Advisors 1. Describe the philosophy of DFA. What sort of market behavior are they counting on? * DFA believes in three principles: 1. The Efficient Market Theory. That is, the stock market is efficient and no one has the ability to consistently pick stocks that will beat the market. Over any given period, some lucky investors will outperform the market while others will underperform. DFA felt that the market price of any firm’s stock incorporated all public information and therefore did not do any fundamental analysis on the firm in question. 2. The value of sound academic research. For example, DFA’s founders believed that small-stock investing could yield high returns to investors. They formulated this belief on the Ph.D. dissertation research of Rolf Banz of the University of Chicago, which showed that small stocks had consistently outperformed large stocks between 1926 and the late 1970s. 3. The ability of skilled traders to contribute to a fund’s profits even when the investment is inherently passive. DFA’s investment fund had a semi-active strategy between those of actively managed funds and those of pure index funds. * DFA counts on market behavior that reflects the following concepts: 1. The Beta is Dead. Stocks with high-beta do not have consistently higher returns than low-beta stocks. That is, greater risk does not guarantee greater reward. 2. The Size Effect (Small Minus Big). Based on the research...
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...do you mean by stock split? What do you mean by Bonus Issue? What do you mean by Buy Back? What do you mean by Right issue of shares? What are ADR’s? ------------------------------------------------- What is the difference in between IPO and FPO? Risk-Return analysis Risk meaning and Measurement – Types of Risk – Systematic, Unsystematic risk, Beta Coefficient, Alpha, CAPM theory etc. What is return? Expected rate of Return, computation formulae. Case studies on risk-return using standard deviation, variance, probability and other statistical tools. ------------------------------------------------- What is beta? ------------------------------------------------- What is cost of equity? ------------------------------------------------- What is WACC? ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------- "Stock A generates a return of 20% while stock B generates a return of 25%. The risk free-rate is 5%. Stock A has a standard deviation (risk) of 20%, while stock B has a standard deviation of 15%. Which stock gives a better risk adjusted return?" Security Research – (Fundamental) ------------------------------------------------- Fundamental Analysis –...
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...Technical analysis involves identifying crowd behavior in order to join the crowd and take advantage of its momentum and direction. This is called the bandwagon effect. Here’s how a bandwagon works: A fresh piece of news comes out, a majority of traders interpret it as favorable to a security, and buying overwhelms selling so that the price rises. You profit by going with the flow. Then when everyone is jumping off the bandwagon, you jump, too. As market participants get excited about a security, they become increasingly bullish and either buy for the first time or add to positions, a phase namedenamed accumulation. When traders become disillusioned about the prospect of their security price rising, they sell, in a phase named distribution. To buy 100 shares of a stock is to enter a position. To buy another 100 shares for a total of 200 is toadd to your position. If you have 500 shares and sell half, you would be reducing your position. To sell all the shares you own is to square your position. When you’re square (also called flat), you have no position in the security. All your money is in cash. You’re neutral. After traders have been accumulating the security on rising prices, eventually the price goes too far.Too far is a relative term and can be defined in any number of equally valid ways, but basically it means any price extreme that’s wildly abnormal, statistically speaking. When a price has reached or surpassed a normal limit, it’s at an extreme....
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...course number, name of student and instructor, date, etc. (1 points) * Table of contents. (1 points) * Proper paging of your term paper. (1 points) * Abstract –consisting of findings, method used, objective of study. (5 points) * Background/Introduction (7 points) * Problem Statement that highlights what prompted you to select the topic for the term paper. (5 points) * Fundamental analysis with tables and graphs if possible/preferable (15 points) * Literature review (Summarize the literature on the topic. What are the fundamental questions formulated from the problem you described above? How did the researchers analyze the processes and design methods to parameterize the processes? What are the major findings from the studies? In this section you should also critically analyze the literature. Is what have been addressed adequate, or insufficient? What are the gaps? * How can you improve the current understanding with your own analysis? Be imaginary and creative with emphasis on fundamentals. (30 points): * Findings (15 points) * Conclusions (5 points) * List of references with standard formats and appropriate citations in the text (5points) * Major statements, facts, and conclusions must be...
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...Econometrics of Random Walk Hypothesis ABSTRACT The random walk hypothesis is a key instrument used in the analysis of forecasting in the economic and financial market. It is used primarily in the forecasting of the prices of stocks. This is useful to determine and forecast the prices of stocks given previous stock prices. This paper discusses the basis of the hypothesis, the two types of random walk hypothesis, its framework, methodologies and the analysis of its repercussions. INTRODUCTION The random walk hypothesis states that stock price changes have the same distribution and are independent of one another, so the past movement or trend of a stock price or of the market as a whole cannot be used to predict its future price or any possible future trends. The concept originated in the late 1800s from Jules Regnault, a French broker, and Louis Bachelier, a French mathematician, whose Ph.D. dissertation titled "The Theory of Speculation". The same ideas were later developed and studied further by Paul Cootner, an MIT Sloan School of Management professor, in his 1964 book The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. The term was popularized by the 1973 book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel, a professor of economics at Princeton University, and was used earlier in Eugene Fama's 1965 article "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices”. The theory that stock prices move randomly was earlier proposed by Maurice Kendall in his 1953 paper, “The Analytics of Economic Time...
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...Search form Search for Articles Search Bottom of Form MarketConsensus Smart Insights - Reviews & Analysis Main menu * Home * Market and Business News * Reviews (Banks & Online Brokers) * Personal Finance * Entrepreneurs * Contact Us * About Us Is Walmart Stock a Good Buy, Sell or Hold in 2013? Share on facebookShare on Facebook Share on twitterShare on Twitter Share on printPrint Created by Stock Analysis Desk (New York) on 6/02/2013 6:54 PM Walmart Stock Analysis - Is WMT a Good Stock to Buy, Sell or Hold? Wal-Mart (Stock: WMT) recently reported a 1.4% decline in its U.S. comparable (or comp) same-store-sales in Q1 2013. This is the first such decline in 6 quarters of Walmart reporting comp increases. Based on a recent report published by Bloomberg, it appears Wal-Mart is struggling to keep its stores stocked with items that consumers are seeking. As seen in the below chart, Walmart’s tock, WMT, has been lagging behind its main competitors, Costco (COST) and Target (TGT). Given the weakness in global economies, and cautious consumer spending in the U.S. (WMT's biggest market), investors might be wondering whether Walmart stock is a good buy, sell or hold. Does WMT stock still make sense as a good investment or should investors seek better opportunities somewhere else? Let's analyze some of the valuation, fundamental and technical variables to better determine whether Walmart stock is a good buy, sell...
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...Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis is the study of a company’s financial strength, based on historical data; sector and industry position; management; dividend history; capitalization; and potential for future growth. It is a stock valuation method that uses financial and economic analysis to predict the movement of stock prices. The analysis attempts to find the intrinsic value of a security that helps investors to make decisions. The fundamental information that is analyzed can include a company's financial reports, and non-financial information such as estimates of the growth of demand for products sold by the company, industry comparisons, and economy-wide changes, changes in government policies etc. The various steps involved in the fundamental analysis are: 1. Macroeconomic analysis, which involves considering the overall health of the economy and its future. 2. Industry analysis, which involves the analysis of the industry in which the company is operating. 3. Situational analysis of the company, studying their business model, management, products and services, its current position, its future, etc. 4. Financial analysis of the company, which involves analyzing the financial statements like balance sheets, income statements, cash flows and ratios. 5. Valuation, which attempts to find the intrinsic value of the securities of the company... The three distinctive parts of fundamental analysis are: 1. Economic analysis 2. Industry analysis 3. Company analysis ...
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