...Decision Analysis Model and Report JaKaiser Smith Southern New Hampshire University Date: 07/09/2015 Abstract In this report following resources have been utilized to establish a relationship between Retail Salesperson’s salaries and their intent to shoplift at their own workplace: * The Larceny theft data from Federal Bureau of Investigation’s official website for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013; * 25th and 26th Annual Retail Theft Surveys by Hayes International for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013; * National Conference of State Legislatures website for Labor and employment data for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013. ‘Shoplifting’ is undoubtedly a psychological issue for most of the people. Shoplifting for most individuals is rarely about greed or poverty. It’s about people struggling with their own personal conflicts and needs. There are approximately 27 million shoplifters (or 1 in 11 people) in the USA today. More than 10 million people have been caught shoplifting in the last five years. The pleasure produced from “getting away with it” yields a chemical reaction causing in what shoplifters describe as an incredible “rush” or “high” feeling. Many shoplifters have committed to the fact that this high is their “true reward,” rather than the stolen product itself. It is assumed in this project that all the shoplifting instances in different states of the USA have been performed by the front-end Retail Salesperson. This might not be 100% true as the members...
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...Presenter Notes for Power-point Decision Analysis Task 4A-E A. (Slide 1) Gloria Rodriguez, Shuzworld's retail development specialist, was looking at some possibilities of placing a Shuzworld store into a major target area and has three options to consider. The first option is to build a proposed stand-alone store, the second option is to open an Auburn Mall store, and the third option is to do nothing at the moment. (Slide 2) With the information given from Ms. Rodriguez, the stand-alone store could see profits for a favorable market of seven hundred thousand dollars; if the market was unfavorable the losses would be four hundred thousand dollars. The Auburn mall could see profits for a favorable market of three hundred thousand dollars, and if the market was unfavorable the losses would be fifty thousand dollars; this is having a probability of fifty-fifty for both choices of a favorable and unfavorable market. Of course, not doing anything or not opening a store, Shuzworld would not suffer any losses or make any profits. Shuzworld is considering market research and this can produce positive or negative impacts on the market or not purchase the research at all to have no effect. To purchase the market research it would come with a price of twenty thousand dollars with a sixty percent chance towards a favorable market and a chance of an unfavorable market of forty percent. Having a favorable market, if the survey is positive, can cause an incline to seventy percent...
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...HW3 – Due 02/14/2015,11:55PM on Moodle Please submit your answers in Moodle as one Word file, named HW3_FirstnameLastname.docx, that includes the complete solution to these problems, including your decision tree and final conclusions about the recommended decision. Please also post the corresponding Excel file that contains the decision trees to these problems, one per worksheet, clearly labeled with the problem number. TOTAL: 100 points 1. The NC Airport Authority is trying to solve a difficult problem with the over-crowded Raleigh-Durham airport. There are three options to consider: A. The airport could be totally redesigned and rebuilt at a cost of $8.2 million. The increased revenue from a new airport is in question. There is a 70% chance this would be $11 million, a 20% chance it would be $5 million, and a 10% chance it would be $1 million, depending on whether the airport is a success, moderate success, or a failure. B. The airport could be remodeled with a new runway for a cost of $4.7 million. The increased revenue would be $6 million (80% chance) or $3 million (20% chance). C. They could do nothing with the airport and suffer a loss of revenue of either $1 million (65% chance) or $4 million (35% chance). Construct a decision tree to help the Airport Authority to maximize the profit. (30 points) 2. Nagyteteny is a Hungarian soccer club. The management team is considering three options to improve the team’s performance, attract more spectators but mostly to make some...
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...Informatica Economică vol. 13, no. 2/2009 103 Computer-Based Decision Support for Railroad Transportation Systems: an Investment Case Study Luminita DUTA1, Adrian BITULEANU2, Florin Gheorghe FILIP3, Ion ISTUDOR4 1 Valahia University of Tîrgovişte, Tîrgovişte, Romania, duta@valahia.ro 2 National Railroad Company, Craiova, Romania, adrianbituleanu@yahoo.com 3 The Romanian Academy - INCE and ICI, Bucharest, Romania, ffilip@acad.ro 4 Valahia University of Tîrgovişte, Tîrgovişte, Romania, ion.istudor@gmail.com In the last decade the development of the economical and social life increased the complexity of transportation systems. In this context, the role of Decision Support Systems (DSS) became more and more important. The paper presents the characteristics, necessity, and usage of DSS in transportation and describes a practical application in the railroad field. To compute the optimal transportation capacity and flow on a certain railroad, specialized decisionsupport software which is available on the market was used. Keywords: decision support systems, decision tree, logistics, optimization, railroad transportation 1 Introduction In the modern society the mobility is an essential feature. The economical development requires the development of transportation systems (TS). The European Union has a clear policy in the domain of transportation systems and elaborated the main objectives of this important economical field. The White Paper of the European ...
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...Reddit This Memo Providing Recommendations For Shuzworld Business Essay In order to find out the most cost-effectively decision, Shuzworld is considering the possibility of opening a new store on route 20, just outside of Auburn, referred to as the stand-alone option. The second option is opening a store in the Auburn Mall, and the third is not opening a store at all. To do nothing now, and wait for a better time to move in to the market. Shuzworld is also considering purchasing market research. I recommend that Shuzworld should use the decision tree graphical method, because of the nature of the issue (a graphic manner was asked to be used). A very important reason to why I am recommending this tool, is because the decision tree method is most commonly used for this kind of cases, as the Shuzworld presented case. The profitability problem is one of the most important problems of future profitability when opening a new store process and is the important content of the course of operation management. By recommending the use of this crucial tool, we need to understand, that this will give Shuzworld a direction, to which one of the three options is the best (the stand-alone option, opening of a brand new store or to do nothing now) for the most cost-effectively and profitability option. Also I am recommending this tool, because the decision tree analysis process, which are of great importance in the industrial production of high quantity standardized products (Shoes,...
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...are at the bittersweet time in our course together. It is almost over. We’ll miss it so much, but we might also want to do something else with the rest of our lives. In these last 1.7 weeks, we’ll cover another topic which, in addition to Financial Analysis and Planning, serves the function of integrating much of the material we have covered. That topic is Lease Financing. There is a lot of material on the structure of the lease and on the accounting treatment of leases, but the analytical focus will be on the lease-buy decision. The lease-buy decision is actually a financing decision. The analysis of the advisability of a lease typically follows a prior decision to acquire an asset (based on an investment decision analysis). In lease analyses we are comparing lease financing (which is a type of debt) to “regular” debt financing. Video 20 and Chapter 25 in BMA are the main materials. As you review the video, work through the lease example in the Excel file (financing uma 13.xlsx). Toward the end of video 20 is described the concept of adjusted present value. Pay close attention to this material as well, because it describes how in some very specific cases the results of an investment decision and a financing decision must be considered together. The deliverable for this two-week period is Exercise 4, which is an individual, i.e., not a team, exercise. We’ll also use the time to review the course learning objectives, especially those for the second half of the course...
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...in which decisions must be made is more complex than ever before. Informed consumers, employees, and shareholders demand greater public consciousness, responsibility, and accountability from corporate and governmental decision makers. Decision analysis captures the dynamic nature of decision processes by prescribing a decision strategy that indicates what action should be chosen initially and what further actions should be selected for each subsequent event that could occur. For instance, a decision strategy might suggest an initial test market for a new product and then, based on the results, either cancel the product, initiate further testing, or begin a full scale marketing and sales effort. Thus, in describing the alternatives, one must simultaneously specify the decision points, events that may occur between them, and the information that can be learned in the process. Decision analysis can be divided into four steps: structuring the problem; formulating inference and preference models; eliciting proba- bilities and utilities; and exploring the numerical model results. Structuring the problem is the most important and difficult part of the analysis process. Trees are the most common decision analytic structures. Decision trees are produced by algorithms that identify various ways of splitting a data set into branch-like segments. These segments form an inverted decision tree that originates with a root node at the top of the tree. The object of analysis is reflected...
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...real-world business situation. Be as specific as you can and use examples as appropriate. Goal programming is an aid for decision-making problems with multiple, possibly conflicting goals. Typically, linear goal programming attempts to minimize a weighted sum of deviations from goals. This program is used in real-world business in an attempt to eliminate or, at the least, mitigate this disquieting disconnect. Goal programming is the most widely applied tool of multiple-objective optimization/multicriteria decision making. However, today’s goal programming models, methods, and algorithms differ significantly from those employed even in the early 1990s. Goal programming, may be combined with various tools from the artificial intelligence sector (most notably genetic algorithms and neural networks) so as to provide an exceptionally robust and powerful means to model, solve, and analyze a host of real-world problems. In other words, today’s goal programming while maintaining its role as the “workhorse” of multiple-objective decision analysis—is a much different tool than that described in most textbooks. Goal programming’s label as the “workhorse” of multiple-objective optimization has been achieved by its successful solutions of important real-world problems over a period of more than 50 years. Some examples among these applications are: • The analysis of executive compensation for General Electric during the 1950s • The design and deployment of the antennas for the Saturn...
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...DRA Assignment 2 – Recreational Properties 1) FRAMING THE DECISION 1.a) Decisions a) He can exercise the option and buy the land. In this case, the possible decisions are: a.1) Sell the land without any development a.2) Develop the land with a development cost of £ 5 million and the sell it for a higher profit b) He can avoid to exercise the option and invest in another investment that will give to him a certain profit. c) Try to negotiate an option extension in order to be able to delay his decisions until the suit is settled and the risk of not getting the lease does not affect his decision anymore. d) For the purpose of this analysis we are assuming that the price of the option will remain constant. Otherwise another possible decision that Anders may make is whether to sell the option to third parties and eventually recover part of his investments. 1.b) Factors of uncertainty a) Legal suit outcome: the payoff of his decision is subject to the outcome of the lawsuit that may not allow the development of land parcels on East side of White Mountain. b) Reputation: the success of his initiative and the consequent return on his investment are conditioned by the popularity that the location will have, as for instance the quality of the snow and of the ski runs. Due to their nature, these are unpredictable factors that Anders cannot control. 1.c) Objective The objective of Recreational Properties is to maximise the payoff coming from this investment as well as minimising...
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...REPORTING Economic evaluation using decision analytical modelling: design, conduct, analysis, and reporting Evidence relating to healthcare decisions often comes from more than one study. Decision analytical modelling can be used as a basis for economic evaluations in these situations. Stavros Petrou professor of health economics 1, Alastair Gray professor of health economics 2 1 Clinical Trials Unit, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; 2Health Economics Research Centre, Department of Public Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Economic evaluations are increasingly conducted alongside randomised controlled trials, providing researchers with individual patient data to estimate cost effectiveness.1 However, randomised trials do not always provide a sufficient basis for economic evaluations used to inform regulatory and reimbursement decisions. For example, a single trial might not compare all the available options, provide evidence on all relevant inputs, or be conducted over a long enough time to capture differences in economic outcomes (or even measure those outcomes).2 In addition, reliance on a single trial may mean ignoring evidence from other trials, meta-analyses, and observational studies. Under these circumstances, decision analytical modelling provides an alternative framework for economic evaluation. Decision analytical modelling compares the expected costs and consequences of decision options by synthesising information from...
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...Value tree paper Decision analysis assists in the process of structural thinking about decisions and the development of supportive subjective judgments that form a basis for good decisions. There are four main phases involved in the process of decision analysis that is the problem structuring, preference elicitation, recommendation decision and sensitivity analysis. Under the problem structuring phase several issues need to be identified and defined. The first task to be carried out involves context decision definition. For example, this is the stage of identifying a college. After defining the problem, the objectives or objective is defined. For example, to come up with the decision of attending my college, the main objective was to find a college which offers the course that will assist me in gaining access to my career. In addition, the college had to offer that course at an affordable price and be near my place of residence (Howard, & Matheson 2005). The next step involves the generation and identification of decision alternatives. Under this step, I evaluated different colleges which I could attend that offered the same course as the one I needed. After this, a hierarchical model of the objectives is formed. This assists in easily understanding the relationship existing between the objectives more easily. Moreover, a basis for further analysis is also created. Finally, measures are provided so as to identify the extent to which the decision alternatives satisfy...
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...Hermalin Consulting “The Nerd in the Know” TM To: Mr. William Jaeger From: Benjamin E. Hermalin, ph.d. Re: Harvesting Decision I have analyzed your harvesting decision problem. Figure 1 represents your problem in terms of a decision tree. Botrytis [.4] 2 storm [.5] 4 wait 5 no storm 3 [.5] sell as bulk $12,000 + C $42,000 good luck [.4] okay luck [.4] bad luck [.2] $36,000 [.6] no Botrytis 1 bottle $24,000 - R $67,200 $30,000 $34,200 harvest now Figure 1: The harvesting decision represented as a decision tree. In Figure 1, R denotes the monetary value of the loss of reputation you would suffer from bottling an inferior wine, while C denotes the cost saving from not bottling your own wine, should you choose to sell in bulk. Assuming the information you gave me is correct (more on this later), R and C are irrelevant to the problem. Given the information you provided, it seems safe to assume that C < $15, 000.∗ Even assuming the worst, R ≥ $12, 000 and C = $0, the option of waiting has a greater expected value than the decision to harvest now: $35,640 versus $34,200.† If the worst is not true (i.e., R < $12, 000 or C > $0), the the option of waiting is even more valuable. Consequently, unless you strongly dislike risk, you should wait to harvest. Your expected gain from waiting is at least 4% (worst-case scenario). If the very best-case scenario in which the node (labeled as ①) is worth $28,200 (see Technical Appendix for underlying calculations), your expected gain...
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...Chapter 9: Capacity Planning and Facility Location Overview This chapter defines capacity planning and location analysis and explains the steps and factors considered when making these types of decisions. The relationship between capacity planning and location analysis is described. The use of decision support tools for capacity planning and location analysis is described. Answers to Discussion Questions in Textbook 1. Explain why capacity planning is important to a business. Having the wrong level of capacity causes negative effects. Too much capacity means that are costs are higher than they should be since we are paying for more land, equipment and a larger building than we need. Not enough capacity negatively affects the level of service provided to our customers. 2. Explain the differences between design capacity and effective capacity. Design capacity is the maximum output that can be achieved using temporary measures, such as overtime and subcontracting. Effective capacity is the maximum output that can be achieved under normal conditions, including realistic work schedules and regular staff levels. Effective capacity is usually less than design capacity. Effective capacity is what we can achieve over long periods of time, while design capacity can be reached on a short-term basis. 3. How is capacity utilization computed, and what does it tell us? Capacity utilization is the actual output divided by the capacity times 100%. It...
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...75.0% -100,000,000 #NAME? #NAME? Test Merck Decision Tree Although a decision analysis would recommend that Merck not commit to the proposal, the company's balance sheet shows that it has significant assets to support a loss. The projected values of earning for depression and dual indications seem to be worth the risk. Weightloss does not. Not Effective 15.0% 0 Phase III: Long Term Efficacy Testing #NAME? 25.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? Obesity Don't Test #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Dual Indications 50.0% -400,000,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Depression: effective #NAME? 0 Indications #NAME? 15.0% -250,000,000 Conduct Depression: not effective 10.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Obesity: effective 5.0% -100,000,000 Obesiity: not effective 10.0% 0 Complete Failure 70.0% -$500,000,000.00 Phase 4: Additional Trials #NAME? 10.0% 0 Effective Do not conduct #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Test Not Effective 5.0% 0 Phase III: Long Term Efficacy Testing #NAME? 30.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? Both Don't Test 70.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Neither 60.0% 0 Phase II Efficacy Testing #NAME? Don't Test #NAME? -$30,000,000.00 Phase 1: Efficacy testing #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Pass Test Fail Preclinical Analysis Test #NAME? 40.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? Davanrik Licensing Decision Tree Cost Testing costs Launch Costs Total Projected...
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...Freemark Abbey Winery Group ZZZ 1. Construct the decision tree for William Jaeger. 2. What should he do? Jaeger should choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. If the storm does come but destroys the grapes, he can decide whether to bottle wine or not to protect winery’s reputation. In either way, he will gain higher revenues from harvesting later than harvesting immediately: EV of “Do not harvest & Bottling”: $39240 EV of “Do not harvest & Not bottling”: $39240-$12000*0.6*0.5=$35640 EV of “Harvest”: $34200 If the winery’s reputation is of great importance for long term profitability, he should choose to sell the wine in bulk, or sell the grapes directly to avoid impairing reputation. Besides, Riesling wines contribute only about 1,000 cases of wine, and the whole winery produced about 25,000 cases of wine bottled each year. Since the Riesling takes only about 4% of winery’s total production and the decision analysis only affects a small proportion of winery revenues, an expected value approach is used (not expected utility approach). However, if Jaeger is extremely risk average or the winery could not afford any risks at that time, he could choose to harvest immediately to reduce uncertainty. 3. Incorporate the option that Jaeger can obtain perfect weather information on the path of the storm into your decision tree. Note that the type of storm remains uncertain. 4. What should he do now? And at most how much he is willing to pay for this...
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