...Property Crimes Case Study # 49 Applied Managerial Statistics: GM533 Virginia Davis, Lauren Holder, Stanley Philip and Andrea Watson Executive Summary The Property Crimes study examined data provided by various U.S. government agencies on crime rates in the fifty U.S. states. Other data studied were eight possible contributing factors such as per capita income, high school dropout rate, average precipitation, population density, and urbanization. Analysis revealed, of the eight possible contributing factors, three of those variables (urbanization rate, high school dropout rate and population density) affected property crime rates. Of the given data, the model accounted for approximately 66% of the contributing factors associated with property crimes. Statistically, the data is generally considered to be strong, however, to account for the remaining 34% of factors contributing to property crime rates in the U.S., further data and evaluation of other possible factors would be necessary. Introduction Property crime, as defined by the U.S. Department of Justice (2011), is the taking of money or property without force or threat to victims and is inclusive of the following offenses: burglary; automotive theft, larceny and arson. An exception to the rule is arson, although it does not involve the taking of property, it does use force against victims. Additionally, crime is defined as an act of violence that is carried out by one or more individuals and can be toward another...
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...FROM: DATE: February 14, 2011 SUBJECT: Analysis of Factors that Affect Property Crime Rates I have analyzed the data of the factors that affect property crime rates in the United States. Here are my results. Data The data provided included; crime rate per hundred thousand inhabitants (which included burglary, larceny, theft, and motor vehicle theft), pincome- per capita income for each state, dropout- high school drop-out rate, precip- average precipitation in inches in the major city in each state over 1951-1980, pubaid- percentage of public aid recipients, density- population/total square miles, kids- public aid for families with children (dollars per family), unemploy- percentage of unemployed workers, urban- percentage of the residents living in urban areas. This data was provided by U.S. government sources: “the 1988 Uniform Crime Reports, Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Office of Research and Statistics, Social Security Administration, the Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, the Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce and Geography Division, the Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce” (Bowerman, O’Connell, Orris, and Murphree). I have used a multiple regression analysis to answer the following questions: 1. What are the primary determinants of property crimes in the United States? 2. What would...
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...CASE 49: PROPERTY CRIMES I. Executive summary The focus of this study is the examination of the data provided by U.S government agencies. Our analysis revealed that of the eight possible contributing factors, only three variables (namely, urbanization rate, high school dropout rate, and population density) affected property crime rates. Our data analysis model accounted for approximately 66% of the factors contributing to property crimes. The model is generally considered to be statistically strong, however, if we need to account for the remaining 34% of factors contributing to property crime rates in the U.S., further data and evaluation of other possible factors would be necessary. II. Introduction According to the US Department of Justice (2006), property crime includes several criminal offenses such as burglary; car and motorcycle theft, larceny theft and arson. Property crimes involve “taking of money or property, but there is no force or threat of force against the victims.” One exception to the basic rule, however, is arson which does not involve the taking of property and does involve force against the victims. The purpose of this case study is to evaluate available data and attempt to determine the variables that contribute the most and address several conceptions and misconceptions about the leading causes of property crimes in the U.S. The questions that this study will answer include: 1. Are crime rates higher in urban than rural areas? 2...
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...During the 1980s there was rash of property crimes in the United States. Business executives and community leaders was taken at back. They chose to look for and find these determinants of property crimes and figure out how to remedy those issues. The task at hand was to provide evidence for or against common perceptions about property crime. Prove if crime rates are higher in urban areas or rural areas. Whether unemployment or education levels contributed to property crime rates, as well as public assistance? Lastly establish what other possible factors relate to property crimes? PCRIMES data was used to prepare a report on the characteristics of and determinants of property crimes in the United States. PCRIMES Property crime rate per hundred thousand inhabitants (property crimes include burglary, larceny, theft and motor vehicle theft); calculated as number of property crimes committed divided by total population/100,000 PINCOME Per capita income for each state DROPOUT High School Dropout rate (%, 1987) PRECIP Average precipitation in inches in the major city in each state over 1951- 1980 PUBAID Percentage of public aid recipients (1987) DENSITY Population/total square miles KIDS Public aid or families with children, dollars per family UNEMPLOY Percentage of unemployed workers URBAN Percentage of the residents living in urban areas STATE 50 States of America The task required that it show the association between crime and the different variables; such...
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...Property Crime Determinants Executive Summary There are three primary determinants that effect property crime, which are the high school dropout rate, the population density, and the percentage of people who reside in an urban area. It was found that other factors such as unemployment, public aid , and income do not significantly contribute towards the level of property crime and are actually some of the misconceptions involving crime in the United States. Introduction Perception is the way that a situation may be viewed by an individual or group through "an awareness or understanding of" that situation (Merriam-Webster online, 2010). This understanding may not always be correct. A person's understanding may be clouded by various things that actually cause a misunderstanding of the situation: such as personal factors that create a bias, incorrect or skewed data, information provided by the media, and so on. Property crime is one of these situations where perception may not always be reality. The purpose of this research is to study data that has to do with several factors that may or may not effect property crime rates in the United States. I seek to answer several questions regarding property crime rates in the United States: what are the primary determinants of property crime in the United States, what would I like to know about property crime rates that cannot be answered by the provided data, and how does population density effect property crime rates and is this...
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...Case 49 Property Crimes Andrea K. Wallace GM533 Professor Beintema Keller Graduate School of Management October 16, 2011 Executive Summary After examining the eight variables that attribute to property crimes, the three variables that effect crime are density, dropout and urban. When density increases by 1%, this would cause a decrease in crime rate. When the dropout rate increases by 1%, this would cause an increase in property crimes. When urban area crimes increase by 1%, the property crime rate increases. The more crowded the urban areas are, the more property crimes will be committed. Introduction Crime is an act of violence that is carried out by an individual or multiple individuals. A crime can be toward another person or property of a person or company. Property Crimes often occurs when someone tries to steal something that is not the property of their own and in other scenarios, the destruction of someone else’s property also. There are many different types of property crimes. Burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft, larceny & arson are few that can fall under that category. This research is going to examine the cause of property crime based on the income, dropout, precipitation, public aid recipients, density, kids, unemployment, urban area, and state. The information that was provided was given by variety of United States government sources. ANALYSIS AND METHOD: Minitab was used to analyze the given data and test the various facts. Crime is chosen for...
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...Case Study 49: Property Crimes First M Last (firstlast@mail.com) For Professor Beintema Managerial Statistics (GM533) Keller School of Management August 2010 I. Executive summary Our study examined data provided by various U.S. government agencies on property crime rates in the fifty U.S. states and eight possible contributing factors such as per capita income, high school dropout rate, average precipitation, population density, and urbanization. Our analysis revealed that of the eight possible contributing factors, only three variables (namely, urbanization rate, high school dropout rate, and population density) affected property crime rates. Our data analysis model accounted for approximately 66% of the factors contributing to property crimes. The model is generally considered to be statistically strong, however, if we need to account for the remaining 34% of factors contributing to property crime rates in the U.S., further data and evaluation of other possible factors would be necessary. II. Introduction According to the US Department of Justice (2006), property crime includes several criminal offenses such as burglary; car and motorcycle theft, larceny theft and arson. Property crimes involve “taking of money or property, but there is no force or threat of force against the victims.” One exception to the basic rule, however, is arson which does not involve the taking of property and does involve force against the victims. The purpose of this case...
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...Statistical Analysis and the common perception of property crime This project will determine whether or not a relationship exists between various variables as they pertain to, or not, property crime. Property crime affects everyone in the population, directly or indirectly. The ability to understand and predict indicators (independent variables) of property crime can help focus the finite assets of society and the government to reduce, or in a utopic vision eliminate, property crime. To help determine the applicability of the variables, a multiple regression was performed on the property crime dataset (appendix A) to analyze the dependent or independent relations to the crime variable. APPX A shows the results of the regression analysis between each of the 8 variables when associated with crime. By using Minitab 16 for this procedure, tests were run to measure the relative p-values among the independent variables. Each independent variable in the regression models had tolerance values close to 0.1 and variance inflation factors (VIF) well below the target value (below 0.05, Allen tutorials cconline.net/browna/tutorials_mt16.htm). In fact, all were below 0.05 indicating the predictive value of the regression models and the rejection of Ho (null hypothesis) Ho: none of the variables predict Property Crime Ha: at least one of the independent variables is helpful to predict property crime The dependent variable is CRIMES: Property crime rate per 100k inhabitants...
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...MACROECONOMIC EVILS ON PROPERTY AND VIOLENT CRIMES IN MALAYSIA Chor Foon Tang♣ University of Malaya ABSTRACT The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of macroeconomic evils – unemployment and inflation on different categories of crime rates – property and violent crimes in Malaysia via the multivariate Johansen-Juselius and Granger causality techniques. This study used annual data from 1970 to 2006. Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests revealed that property and violent crimes are cointegrated with unemployment and inflation. Furthermore, the empirical evidence exhibit that unemployment and inflation are the driving factors for crimes in Malaysia. Therefore, supply-side economy may be an ideal choice of policy to reduce crime rates in Malaysia. Keywords: Crime, Inflation, Unemployment, Malaysia 1. INTRODUCTION Recent deliberation on whether “Malaysia is a safe haven for travel and investment?” was frequently asked by the international tourists and foreign investors owing to the increasing trend of crime rates in Malaysia. From the visual inspection in Figure 1, both property and violent crime rates in Malaysia has increased quite significantly between 1970 and 2006. Over a decade from 1970 to 1980, both property and violent crime rates in Malaysia increased more than two folds. The property crime rate increased drastically from 25 thousand cases in 1970 to 66 thousand cases in 1980. In the similar vein, violent crime rates increased from...
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...production of physical evidence is essential for the conduct of criminal trials. Chain of custody procedures represent the application of a legal principle intended to ensure the evidence produced at trial is the same evidence seized by law enforcement authorities related to the crime, and has not been confused with evidence related to other crimes. In addition, chain of custody procedures are necessary to ensure the evidence has not been altered or tampered with between the time of seizure and the time the evidence is produced in court. Both documentation about the way the evidence was protected as well as the legal adequacy of the procedures used by law enforcement authorities is necessary to establish chain of custody. The failure to establish a chain of custody may result in the exclusion of the evidence at trial, although in some situations involving a broken chain of custody the evidence may be admissible if it can be precisely identified by a unique characteristic such as a serial number. While the documentary requirements to establish chain of custody are relatively similar for the evidence for most crimes, there is variation in the procedures used to maintain a chain of custody depending on the type of crime and the nature of the evidence. The burden of establishing the authenticity of the evidence with chain of custody generally rests with the party seeking admission of the evidence at trial, although there may be a presumption of the integrity of the evidence in some jurisdictions...
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...Analyzing Property Crimes in the United States GM 533 Applied Managerial Statistics April 15, 2010 To: Mr. Livingston Date: April 15, 2010 Subject: Analysis of Property Crimes Per your request, we have analyzed the content of Case #49: Property Crimes. There are many preconceived ideas about Property Crimes. Property Crimes do not involve force, but the taking of property or money and is considered to some to be a “high-volume” crime. Property crime would include the taking of jewelry, money, electronics, motor vehicles, cash, and other high priced items. We were given the task of analyzing the data and answering the following questions: 1. Are crime rates higher in urban than rural areas? 2. Does unemployment or education level contribute to property crime rates? 3. Does public assistance contribute to property crime rates? The results are as follows: Data: We are allowed access to a data set containing the following information: 1. Crimes: Property crime rate per hundred thousand inhabitants. The crimes include burglary, larceny, theft, and motor vehicle theft. The calculations for the crimes are noted as the number of property crimes divided by the total population (100,000). 2. P-income: P-income is the per capita income for each state (All 50 states are included in this data set). 3. Dropout: This shows the high school dropout rate. 4. Precipitation: This shows the average precipitation in inches in the major city in each state. 5. Public Aid: This...
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...Crime Prevention CRJ 305 Michelle McMichael Professor Levit September 10, 2013 Crime Prevention “The ultimate goal of crime prevention is to reduce the risk of being a victim.” (SIU, par. 1) “Successful crime prevention efforts will promote a safer community by enhancing the perception of safety and the attitudes and behaviors that help people feel safe.” (SIU, par. 3) Reducing crime must be a community effort. It requires the work of not only law enforcement but also the community itself. Crime prevention programs can be instituted, but until everyone decides to work together on the effort, they can be futile. In this paper I will be discussing the jurisdiction of Oklahoma City, the portion of the criminal justice system my proposal addresses, an analysis of crime statistics in Tallahassee, Florida, San Francisco, California, and Cleveland, Ohio, and how they compare to the national average, what the SARA model and the Problem Analysis Triangle are, the crime prevention strategy I have chosen, my recommendations, and my anticipated outcomes. According to the Lectric Law Library it states that, “the Fourteenth Amendment prohibits the deprivation of liberty or property without due process of law and the Sixth Amendment, which is applicable to the states through the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, guarantees a criminal defendant a fundamental right to be clearly informed of the nature and cause of the charges against him” (Lectric, n.d) par. 1)...
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...report that researches the national property crime rates and victimization trends, but before I get started; I would like to provide you the definition of what Citrus County Sheriff Offices definition of a property crime. Property crimes in Citrus County are one out of the many commonly charged convicted offenses throughout the United States of America. This is largely due to citizens in every city, state or town are shoplifting and maybe spray painting walls which is known as graffiti isn’t a serious offense, but us American take pride in our property and we will do what’s necessary to protect it, but a property crimes in Florida, let alone Citrus County sound exactly like they are; crime that has to do with property that has some worth to it. • The common characteristics of all property crimes. -...
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...System Management Kyaw Khine Soe (3026039) Data Mining and Business Analytics Boston Housing Dataset Analysis. Table of Contents Introduction 3 Problem Statement 3 The associated data of Boston 5 Data pre-processing / Data preparation 8 Clustering Analysis 11 Cluster segment profile 17 Regression Analysis 18 Predictive analysis using neural network node 19 Decision tree node 21 Regression node analysis 23 Model Comparison 24 The recommendation and conclusion 26 Bibliography 27 Introduction This report included part of assignment for the Data Mining and Business Analytics. This report based on the Boston Housing Dataset to describe prediction, cluster analysis, neural networks and decision tree nodes. Boston Housing is a real estate related dataset from Boston Massachusetts. This is small dataset with 506 rows can show prediction of housing price and regressing using decision trees and neural networks over this dataset. This report shows analysis of the property price over the size, age of property, environment factor such as crime rate, near the river dummy, distanced to employment centers and pollution. Problem Statement In relation to housing intelligence, real estate are usually concerned with following common business concerns: 1. Which area are high rates of crime? How crimes rates effected on housing price? How can reduce the crime? 2. Which area is most/lease house price base on rooms in house/ area and pollution? What are the...
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...Article Mumbai’s Development Mafia’s: Globalization, Organized Crime and Land Development Jordan Morrison 209148123 ENVS 4225: Urban Sustainability November 17, 2010 Mumbai’s Development Mafia’s: Globalization ,Organized Crime and Land Development LIZA WEINSTIEN International Journal of Urban and Regional Research Volume 32, Issue 1, pages 22-39, March 2008 Abstract For over a decade, researchers have analyzed the effects of liberalization and globalization on urban development, considering the local political implications of shifts at the national and global scales. Taking the case of Mumbai, this article examines how the past 15 years of political reforms in India have reshaped property markets and the politics of land development. Among the newly empowered actors, local criminal syndicates, often with global connections, have seized political opportunities created by these shifts to gain influence over land development. The rise of Mumbai's organized criminal activity in the 1950s was closely linked to India's macroeconomic policies, with strict regulation of imports fuelling the growth of black market smuggling. Liberalization and deregulation since the early 1990s have diminished demand for smuggled consumer goods and criminal syndicates have since diversified their operations. With skyrocketing real estate prices in the 1990s, bolstered by global land speculation, the mafia began investing in property development. Supported by an illicit nexus of politicians, bureaucrats...
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