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2QA3 Group Project
The Relationship between Canadian Income and Walmart’s Net Income!

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Friday, November 29, 2013!

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Surname Cai Mei Sun Ye Given Name Kaisi Yueli Xinran ShanShan Student Number 1219196 1214213 1224165 1234730 McMaster email caik@mcmaster.ca meiyl@mcmaster.ca sunxr@mcmaster.ca yes22@mcmaster.ca

Contents!
Executive Summary! Introduction! Literature Review! “Walmart always low price”! Project Work! Canadian average income from 2002 to 2011! Walmart’s income from 2002 to 2011! Comparing Canadian average income and Walmart’s income! Comparing Walmart with it’s competitor (Shoppers Drug Mart)! Hypothesis testing 1 (Walmart’s net income and average income)!

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i! 2! 3! 3! 4! 4! 4! 5! 6! 7!

Hypothesis testing 2 (Walmart’s net income and it’s competitor’s income)!8! Result and Recommendation! Result! Discussion ! Recommendation! Conclusion! Appendix A! Appendix B! Appendix C! Appendix D! Appendix E! Notes! Bibliography! 10! 10! 11! 11! 12! 14! 16! 18! 20! 21! 22! 23!

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Executive Summary!
The retail giant, Walmart, has out beat all its competitors and gains a remarkable growth during the 2008 Great Recession. The further investigation has conducted to confirm the relationship between Walmart’s net income and Canadian average income. The results show that as percentage growth of Canadian average income decreases, the percentage growth of Walmart’s net income increases. It also determines that Walmart’s growth has no direct relationship with its competitor, Shoppers Drug Mart. The forward recommendations for the findings are researching more information and expanding larger sample size. Companies in the retail industry should be aware of the importance of proper strategies in the economic crisis. Walmart has established an outstanding image for growth in the Great Recession and thus provide meaningful lessons to firms in the field for further applications. !

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Introduction!
The problem that discussed in this report is the relationship between Canadian average income and Wal-Mart’s net income. In 2008, the bursting of the United States real estate bubble caused the Great Recession and the whole world economy was in a downward trend situation.1 It has triggered the stock price fall down dramatically, the price of commodities went up and unemployment rate declined. Even though the price of goods increased after the recession, Wal-Mart still sold the goods with a lower price than other and gained profitable net income. From the collected data about Wal-Mart’s net income, it indicates that Wal-Mart’s profit increases gradually between 2002 and 2011. During the recent economic downturn, Wal-Mart marketed its low prices and exceptional values at every opportunity. The firm’s updated slogan -- “Save money. Live better.” -- champions the average costumer who is looking for value.2 The purpose of this report is aimed to discover that whether Wal-Mart’s strategy works during the recent 2008 recession. The problem is important because it has an implication for the internal relationship between business cycle and company’s income. In addition, since recession is unavoidable, Wal-Mart’s experience illustrates that how can companies make revenue in the recession time. The correlation between Wal-Mart and its competitors Shoppers Drug Mart is sub-topics in the project. It is to explore if Wal-Mart did better than its competitors during the period. Firstly, the project work find out the Canadian average income and Wal-Mart’ average income from 2002 to 2011 and show the figure in the table. Also, exploring the relationship between Wal-Mart’s net income and Canadian average income through scatter plot and bar graphs. Secondly, comparison between Wal-Mart’s net income and its competitor’s net income is conducted. Finally, there are two hypothesis testings. One is about the relationship between the Wal-Mart’s net income and Canadians net income the other is about the relationship between Wal-Mart’s net income and its competitor’s income.


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Literature Review!
“Walmart always low price”! This article states an interesting issue during 2008 recession that while other companies are facing a downturn, Walmart was doing much better than it was when the economy is booming. Walmart’s biggest strategy is grocery sale, which are not slowing down, and are unlikely to, since they are essential purchases.3 One reason why other fashion retail company such as Ann Taylor encountered falling sales is because customers behaviours not willing to spend money during this economic downturn. On the other hand, Walmart’s always low price becomes it’s biggest selling point during the recession period. According to the article, Walmart’s sale increased by 8.3% compare with the same period on 2007, to a record of $106.3 billion.4 Walmart’s slogan “Save money, live better” become the live saver for those who had a hard time during the recession.! It has been five years since the recession started, and the economy is much better right now. Does Walmart still doing as good as it was in 2008? Is there any correlation between Walmart’s sales net income and Canadian average income? ! The concept of normal goods and inferior goods are introduced in economic class. In terms of inferior goods, it means that when income is lower, people tends to buy more inferior goods. Does this mean that people sees the products in Walmart as inferior goods? The relationship between the two is the subject to investigate in this project. 


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Project Work!
Canadian average income from 2002 to 2011! The average income data that has been used in this project is the average income of the economic families ( which have two people or more), because the target market for Walmart is middle class families. The table below shows the average income of the economic families from 2002 to 2011.! Table 1: Economic Families Average Income in $CAD
2002 Economic families, two people or more Percentage growth 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

70,500 69,900 71,600 72,600 74,400 77,500 78,500 78,700 78,800 79,600 0.0085 0.0243 0.0140 0.0248 0.0417 0.0129 0.0025 0.0013 0.0102

Source: Statistics Canada.5

As table 1 shows above, the average income generally keeps increasing over these ten years. However, it reaches it’s lowest point in the year 2003 and reaches it’s highest point in 2011. Also there was no dramatic drop of average income during the 2008 world economic recession. It should be noticed that although the income keep increasing steadily, but the percentage growth decreased by 0.0288 between 2007 and 2008. The percentage growth keep decreasing during 2008 to 2010 as well.!

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Walmart’s income from 2002 to 2011! Table 2: Walmart Net Income in $CAD million
2002 Walmart's net income percentage growth 6,592 2003 7,955 2004 2005 2006 11,231 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

9,054 10,267

11,284 12,731 13,381 14,370 16,389 0.0511 0.0739 0.1405

0.2068 0.1382 0.1340 0.0939 0.0047 0.1282

Source: Allen H. Gould Trading Floor.6

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The net income used in this report is Walmart’s net income before tax. ! As table 2 shows on the pervious page, the income increased constantly from 2002 to 2011, with the lowest point $6,592 million in 2002 and highest point $16,389 million in 2011. In terms to the percentage growth, Walmart has the smallest growth during 2007, which is percentage growth 0.24 0.223 0.207 0.19 0.174 0.157 0.14 0.124 0.107 0.091 0.074 0.057 0.041 0.024 0.008 -0.009

Figure 1: Percentage growth for Walmart’s net income and Canadian average income
Walmart Income

before the Great Recession came. Apparently, during the 2008 Great Recession, growth Walmart’s percentage to

increased

dramatically

0.1282 from 0.0047.!

!
Comparing Canadian average income and Walmart’s income! As the Figure 1 shows on the right, it is obvious that Walmart’s percentage growth is almost always higher than the income percentage growth except for the year 2007 (which is before the Great Recession). It seems that the Great Recession saved Walmart’s declining growth. Comparing to the average income percentage growth which keep

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 2: Relationship between Walmart and Canadian Average Income
0.05 Percentage Growth of Canadian Average Income 0.038 0.025 0.013 0 -0.013 y = -0.1419x + 0.029

decreasing in 2008 to 2010, Walmart still has an impressive percentage

0

0.075

0.15

0.225

0.3

Percentage growth of Walmart’s Net Income Source: Statistic Canada and Allen H. Gould Trading Floor.7

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growth during these three years. Meanwhile, as the scatter plot and regression line graph (Figure 2) shows on the right, there is a negative correlative relationship between the two variables with a function of y = -0.1419x + 0.029. The negative relation means that when percentage growth of Canadian average income decrease, the percentage of Walmart’s net income increase. Therefore, it can be assumed that Walmart has not been influenced much during the Great Recession.!

Comparing Walmart with it’s competitor (Shoppers Drug Mart)! As table 3 and figure 2 show on the right, Shoppers Drug Mart (Shoppers) was having a relatively low percentage Table 3: Walmart and Shoppers’ PercentageGrowth
2008 Walmart Shopper’s Drug Mart 0.1282 0.0216 2009 0.0511 0.0423 2010 0.0739 0 2011 0.1405 0.0119

!

growth on 2008 compared to Walmart, but its growth also kept fairly constant (close to

0.02) during 2008 to 2011. While on the other hand, Walmart has bigger changes growth in its

Figure 3: Walmart and Shoppers’ Percentage Growth
0.16 Shoppers Walmart

percentage

between

these 4 years compare to its competitor. Another difference between the two company should be noticed in the graph is that Walmart growth fell in 2009 and increased in the next two years which makes the line parabola. In contrast,
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.04 0.12

0.08

Source: Allen H. Gould Trading Floor.8

Shoppers percentage growth in 2008 was higher than before and moved up and down in the next two years. !

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Hypothesis testing 1 (Walmart’s net income and average income)! In order to identify whether Walmart’s net income is related to the Canadian average income, a t-test has been conducted below.! Hypothesis: !

H0: Pwi - Pci = 0! Ha: Pwi - Pci ≠ 0! Model: ! a. Independent Assumption: the percentage growth of Walmart income and Canadian income are independent from each other.! b. Randomization Condition: the data from each party are collected at random! c. Nearly normal Condition: the figure 4 in Appendix D shows a fairly normal shape and therefore satisfied in this hypothesis testing.! d. 10% condition and success/failure condition are considered to be satisfied in this hypothesis testing! Mechanics:! t-Test: Two-SampleAssuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Mean Variance Observations Hypothesized Mean Difference df t Stat P(T 2.26215716, there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, which is the percentage growth of Walmart is equal to the percentage growth of the Canadian average income. Because of the P-value is 0.00062199, which is a very small number, it shows that Walmart’s net income is growing much faster than the Canadian average income during 2002 to 2011. Therefore, it is very clear that even though the Great Recession had slowed the growth of the Canadian average income, it did not decelerate the growth of Walmart’s income.!

Hypothesis testing 2 (Walmart’s net income and it’s competitor’s income)! To further test whether Walmart really have benefited from the Great Recession, hypothesis testing 2, which is a test bases on the percentage growth of Walmart’e net income and Shoppers Drug mart’s percentage growth had been conducted below.! Hypothesis: ! ! H0: Pwi - Psi = 0! Ha: Pwi - Psi ≠ 0! Model:! a. Independent Assumption: the percentage growth of Walmart income and the percentage growth of Shoppers Drug Mart are independent from each other.! b. Randomization Condition: the data from each party are collected at random.! c. Nearly normal Condition: the figure 5 in Appendix E shows a fairly normal shape and therefore satisfied in this hypothesis testing.!

! !

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Mechanics:!
2QA3 GROUP PROJECT 8

Conclusion:!

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Mean Variance Observations Hypothesized Mean Difference df t Stat P(T

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