Assess the causes and consequences for changes in the UK population

This essay will assess the causes and consequences for changes in the UK population, one cause of this is the decline in the death rate which will be looked at in this essay. Another cause of changes in the population, that will be assessed in this essay, is migration and the patterns of it that have a large impact on the characteristics of a country's population. Many sociologists have studied these topics and some that will be looked at in this essay are Thomas McKeown (1972), N.L Tranter (1996) and many more.

The first topic to be assessed in this essay is the death rate in the UK, the death rate is currently declining in the UK and there are several reasons for this decline. According to N.L Tranter (1996), over three quarters of the decline in the death rate from 1850 to 1970 was due to a fall in the number of deaths from infectious diseases. Since deaths from infectious disease were commonest amongst the younger generations, it is not surprising that most of the decline in the death rate came from infants, children and young adults. This decrease in the death rate is part of what has led to a growing population in the UK.

However, this is not the only reason for a decline in the death rate leading to an increase in the population in the UK. Thomas McKeown (1972) also points out that improved nutrition is also part of what has led to a decreasing death rate, he believes it is accountable for up to half the reduction in death rates. He argues that improved nutrition is particularly important in reducing the number of deaths from tuberculosis (TB). Better nutrition increased resistance to infection and increased the survival chances of those who did become infected. This meant less people died form these diseases, reducing the death rate and then, forcing population to grow.

On the contrary, others have challenged the view of McKeown, some argue that this explanation does not explain why females – who receive a smaller share of family food supply, live longer than men. Others argue that it fails to explain why infectious diseases, such as diarrhoea and measles, actually rose at a time of improving nutrition.

Yet another factor in the declining death rate, as pointed out by Tranter, is improvements in medicine. He says, before the 1950's, despite some important innovations, medical improvements played almost no part in the reduction of deaths from infectious disease - this was also pointed out by McKeown. He observes:

“As late as the 1930's, levels of obstetric knowledge and technique were so poor that they were more likely to increase rather than decrease death rates in childbirth.”

However, after the 1950's, improved medical knowledge, techniques and organisation did help to reduce death rates. Advances included the introduction of antibiotics, widespread immunisation, blood transfusion, higher standards of midwifery and maternity services. Also, the setting up of the single publicly funded NHS in the UK in 1949 helped to raise organisation standards. More recently, improved medication, by-pass surgery and other developments have reduced deaths from heart disease by one third. All this once again leads to a declining death rate and a growing population.

Another topic that relates directly to effect and consequences of changes in the UK population is migration, this is the movement of people from place to place, this includes immigration and emigration. Until the 1980's the numbers immigrating were lower than those emigrating, for example, in every year from 1946 to 1978 more people left the UK to settle elsewhere than arrived to live in the UK. This meant that population started growing and this trend is continuing today meaning that population is also still growing. Also, the higher immigration rate than emigration and the increase in the immigration rate creates a more diverse population.

On the point that immigration creates a more diverse population is the fact that during the 1950's, black immigrants from the Caribbean began to arrive in the UK. This was then followed during the 60's and 70's by South Asian immigrants and by East African immigrants. One consequence of this immigration, as already mentioned, was that it created a more ethnically diverse society. By 2001, minority ethnic groups accounted for 7.9% of the total population. Another result of this is that there has been a greater diversity of family patterns now in today's society in the UK.

Another point is that changes in fertility have also had a large effect on the consequences of the UK population. One consequence for changes in population that comes from a change in fertility is that in the long term, fewer babies being born will mean fewer young adults and a smaller working population and so the dependency ratio may increase in the process. The dependency ratio is the relationship between the size of the working or productive part of the population and size of the non-working or dependent part of the population. The earnings, savings and taxes of the working population must support the dependent population however children make up the majority of the dependent population. Therefore, a fall in the number of children being born could also be seen as reducing the 'burden of dependency' having a positive effect on the UK population.

Finally, the UK population is now an ageing population meaning that the average age is rising, the average age in 1971 was 34.1 years however in 2007 it stood at 39.6 years. This has happened as there are fewer young people than old people in the population. Donald Hirsch (2005) notes, the traditional age 'pyramid' is disappearing and being replaced by more or less equal sized blocks 'blocks' representing the different age groups. For example, by 2041, there will be as many 78 year olds as 5 year olds. The ageing population is a result of several factors: Increasing life expectancy – more people are living longer into old age. Declining infant mortality – nowadays hardly anyone dies early in life. Declining fertility – fewer young people are being produced in relation to the number of old people in the population.
This ageing population, in the UK, increases the dependency ration which is a negative effect of the UK population. Also, older people consume a larger amount of public services such as health care, this is another bad consequence of the UK population as expenditure on health care will be increased due to the fact that more of the are elderly using it.
In conclusion, the UK population is one with many characteristics such as diversity due to an increased immigration rate and it is one that is ageing as the elderly population is larger than the younger population. Also, it is one that is growing at the same time as the death rate is declining thanks to improved health care and other changes. One could argue that these changes are for the better, for example, many immigrants are willing to do work that other British members of the population would not be willing to do. However, on the contrary, some may argue that these changes are for the worse as others may believe the country is becoming overcrowded due to a growing population; finally, others may think an ageing population is bad as it increases taxes due to a growing use of public services for the elderly population.