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Gestión de Riesgo – Apache Corporation

La compañía Apache se dedica a la producción y exploración de petróleo y gas natural, rubro en el cual había tenido mucho éxito y un crecimiento digno de envidiar. Maximizar la producción y minimizar costos era la estrategia seguida por la empresa, así también buscaba ser líder de la región combinado con negocios internacionales del mismo rubro.

Los mayores riesgos que enfrenta Apache son la volatilidad del precio de petróleo y gas natural ya que son comodities, por lo tanto, Apache no tiene control sobre su precio de venta. Ya que recientemente adquirió otras compañías, debe en el futuro saldar deudas, la volatilidad del precio de sus productos afecta los flujos de caja que genera y así afectar el compromiso que tiene con los acreedores. Al tener problemas para saldar su deuda, Apache cae en default, cae su rating y su flexibilidad para una futura deuda. Por la misma volatilidad del precio, puede ocurrir que el costo no sea lo suficientemente bajo como para que el negocio sea rentable, pero cerrar una planta tiene altos costos y puede peligrar el producto.

En el tipo de negocio en que trabaja Apache, el riesgo de volatilidad es controlable mediante el uso de derivados como por ejemplo Opciones (put, call), Futuros y Forwards. Esta opción de cobertura tiene un costo por lo que el mercado es escéptico en su uso. Para manejar este riesgo de volatilidad de flujos de caja, por la volatilidad del precio del petróleo y el gas natural, Apache utiliza derivados, así acota si utilidad mínima y máxima en caso de variaciones importantes en los precios de comodities. Esta cobertura la hace mediante un venta de una Call y con el ingreso por venta de la Call Apache compra una Put, así mantiene el precio por barril entre $3,5 y $5,26 para los próximos 2 a 3 años.

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El plan de gestión de riesgo que implementa Apache no es fácil de desarrollar. La empresa quiere primero decidir si transferir el riesgo de los accionistas o crear valor para estos. El riesgo es la incertidumbre de si la implementación de este plan de gestión de riesgo actuará como una cobertura ante posibles variaciones en lo precios del petróleo. Ya que no se sabe como se moverán estos precios no se sabe hacia donde orientar el plan de gestión riesgo.

Creo que el plan que esta implementando Apache va bien encaminado, debe transferir el riesgo para así tener control casi total de los flujos de la compañía y preocuparse del negocio y no de si podrán pagar las cuentas por la volatilidad de los precios. Para lograr esta tranquilidad, Apache debe reclutar un grupo dedicado a esto, planificar y ejecutar un plan de cobertura para los flujos de la compañía.

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Utilidad por precio del petróleo/gas

Compra Put

Venta Call

Rango de precio después de cobertura

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