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China's Economy

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China’s Economy- Whilst performing a close analysis on the economic and manufacturing standpoint of China, what are the main factors that must be taken into consideration?

Currency – China VS The Netherlands

A very large part of expanding a business to another location, especially outside of the European Union, is analysing the currency and exchange rates of that country in comparison to your own country’s. As found on the Currency Encyclopedia; CX, the Chinese Yuan Renminbi is the currency of China. Their currency rankings show that the most popular China Yuan Renminbi exchange rate is the USD to CNY rate. The currency code for Yuan Renminbi is CNY, and the currency symbol is ¥. In comparison to the Netherlands, once again according to www.xe.com, 1 euro is equivalent to 6.81086 yuan. When acknowledging the comparisons over a year, this is the outcome:

The Economics of the “China-Price”

Manufacturers in China have the ability to significantly lower their prices compared to foreign competitors, they are able to produce a large range of items at a much lower price. Due to this, China has taken over 70% of the world’s market share for items such as DVDs, toys, more than 50% for bikes, camera, shoes and telephones, and more than one-third of air conditioners, colour televisions, computer monitors, luggage and microwave ovens. China has established dominant market positions in everything ranging from furniture, refridgerators, washing machines etc.

These are main factors that contribute to the “China-Price” theory: The China price advantage consists of

← Lower labour costs = 39%

← A highly efficient form of production known as “industrial network clustering” = 16%

← Catalytic foreign direct investment = 3%

Unfair trade practices of foreign investors:

← Export subsidies = 17%

← Undervalued currency = 11%

← Counterfeiting and privacy = 9%

← Environmental and worker health and safety regulatory regimes = 5%

Labour

The data povided on wages and compensation in China is insufficient and of poor quality. A very large amount of companies underreport data on a regular basis to avoid taxation and payments to social insurance and often keep two sets of books for “management accounts” and “tax accounts.” Being aware of such large variances, this analysis relies on the best available data compiled by Judith Banister (2005) who has calculated an average hourly compensation rate of $0.57. Regarding the timeframe in which productivity-adjusted wages may rise, data provided by the International Monetary Fund (2006) suggests that nominal wages may be rising quite quickly; 10%-15% a year since 1999. Due to the fact that productivity is rising at a faster rate, unit labour costs remain in decline. Whilst new entrants into the labourforce are starting to decline significantly, there is a strong possibility that unit labour costs increase due to businesses having to pay more to retain workers for longer. Thus productivity-adjusted Chinese wages could start to rise as early as in the next decade.

Export Subsidies

In 2002, as a condition of entry provided by the WTO (World Trade Organisation), the government of China promised to eliminate, or decrease on a large scale, the convoluted web of subsidies and tax preferences that had big benefits for export manufacturers. At least in the decade or more before China entered into the WTO in 2002. The government in China has been lacking transparency in accordance to this aspect, it is troublesome to define the degree to which this has been met. Evidence has however suggested some potential significant non-compliance. Water and energy are still heavily subsidised. A large number of manufacturers are still benefiting from subsidised rent and/or cheap or free land and preferential access to land by local and regional governments. By domineering a level of subsidy being one-third of the total costs of these cost components, this would add a humble 1.38 cents to the China price advantage.

Since entering the WTO, the government of China has showed signs of attempting to clean up their current NPL portfolios on the books of state-owned banks; although there is a considerable amount of doubt in how successful these efforts have been. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (2004) has announced that the official rate of NPLs was 15% in 2003. But newer information provided by the Xinhua Financial Network News (2006) has proclaimed that it has dropped to 8.6%. Although, outside observers had approximated that the amount of NPLs was two to four times higher than the single-digit statistics in a report that was later withdrawn under pressure; Ernst and Young reported non-performing loans of US$358 billion for China’s four big commercial banks and a potential exposure of US$911. This was in contrast to the official level of US$133 billion, “Ernst & Young Withdraws Non-performing Loan Report” (2006). Additionally, according to the IMF Working Paper by Richard Podpiera (2006), China’s state-owned banks continue to issue new NPLs. In conclusion when referring to export subsidies, China carries on using an intense value-added tax rebate system for its export industries. The VAT system in China is appointed over many stages of the somestic production and distribution process; usually within the scope of 13% to 17%. Data from “China VAT & Export Rebates” by Dezan Shira & Associates claims that “In some cases, the Chinese government first collects, and then rebates, this tax for exports. In other cases, exporting firms are simply exempted from the tax.”

REFERENCES

CNY - Chinese Yuan Renminbi rates, news, and tools. (n.d.). Retrieved March 20, 2015, from http://www.xe.com/currency/cny-chinese-yuan-renminbi?r=#additionalinfo

Peter Navarro, « The Economics of the “China Price” », China Perspectives [Online], 68 | november- december 2006, Online since 01 June 2007, connection on 25 March 2015. URL : http://chinaperspectives.revues.org/3063

Banister, Judith. “Manufacturing earnings and compensation in China”, Monthly Labour Review, August 2005, p. 34

People's Republic of China - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2005 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion. (2006). International Monetary Fund.

Podpiera, R. (2006). Progress in China's banking sector reform: Has bank behavior changed?Washington, DC: IMF.

“China Banks Fail to Cut Bad-loan Risk, IMF Reports”, International Herald Tribune, March 31st 2006. “Progress in China's Banking Sector Reform: Has Bank Behavior Changed?”, IMF Working Paper 06/71, by Richard Podpiera, March 1st 2006, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp0671.pdf

“China VAT & Export Rebates”, Dezan Shira & Associates, http://www.dezshira.com/china_export_rebates.htm

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