Brief on “Dams It Is!”

In the Chatham House article “Dams it Is!”, written in June 2008, David Fullbrook writes about the conflicting interests between governments that wish to raise revenue and increase energy security through dam projects along the Mekong River and the populations that rely on the fish and fertile soil in and along the river to survive. In this paper, the author feels that Southeast Asian Governments do not properly assess the potential consequences of their decisions to pursue massive energy projects on the people who rely on the river for food and job security. Although at times it seemed that Fullbrook was strong in his convictions, I found that I agreed with many of his conclusions. Based on my experiences living as an expat in Southeast Asia, I was also not surprised by the author’s extreme conclusions and found the topic very interesting.

The Mekong River runs through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodian and Vietnam and is over 4,000 km long. According to Fullbrook, the livelihoods of over sixty million people depend on the ecology of the free-flowing river. But current dam construction along the Mekong has the potential to seriously upset the ecological balance of the Mekong and in turn, displace millions and negatively affect food security. One theme of the passage is that further analysis of the consequences of these projects is needed. As I will discuss in more detail below, this concern seems like a legitimate one.

It is true that energy security is an important in Southeast Asia and damming the Mekong allows for a diversification of energy supplies. Dams also make money from the clean development mechanism set-up by the Kyoto protocol. According to Fullbrook, “By 2015 energy export revenue should be flowing to the Laotian government from thirteen dams now under construction on Mekong tributaries… Just one of these dams, the Nam Theun II, is expected to bring in $1.9 billion in revenue for the Laotian Government over the next 25 years.” Fullbrook explains that this is several times more than the total spending by the Laotian Government estimated by the CIA in 2008! Knowing this, I believe that it would be very difficult for the Laotian Government to turn down that kind of money. Furthermore, the Lao National Committee for Energy reported another 34 potential dams on Mekong Tributaries. It is doubtful that the government has the capacity to assess and regulate so many large projects since it struggles to provide basic services for its citizens. Corruption in the Laotian Government, as the author explains, might also hinder proper oversight.

Fullbrook describes how the Cambodian government is cashing in on dam projects as well. As a rural society whose population is heavily reliant on farmland and fisheries, however, dam construction is a concern. The author explains that there are fears that some of the projects in Cambodia will upset the Mekong’s annual flood during the July-October monsoon season, which pushes huge amounts of water into Tonle Sap Sea. This sea depends on the floods to revitalize fisheries and fertilize surrounding fields for farming. Scientific understanding of the projects’ potential effects on farming is minimal at best. Without proper analysis, how can they know for sure? These developments could further force rural villagers to abandon their farms and migrate to the slums of Phnom Penh looking for work.

In Thailand, Fullbrook explains how damns on the Moon River, an important Mekong tributary in the northeast of the country, decimated fisheries in the region. As a result, many were forced to leave their families to seek work in Bangkok. The author further described how campaigns to restore the river were met by riot police and the construction of a fish ladder, copied from North America, built alongside the damn. The ladder has so far been unused because, as Fullbrook states, “Moon fish, unlike American Salmon, do not jump!” I believe that the toothless Thai response to help the fisherman affected by dam construction is symbolic of the government’s attitude toward the voiceless people in the region.

Since the countries discussed all share the use of the Mekong River, one country’s developments can affect the ecology of the river for countries downstream. Fullbrook explains in the article that China has twice built across the Mekong in the Yunnan province without consulting any of the downstream nations. Consequently, fish catches in northern Thailand have fallen sharply due to these dams. Thus, coordination of projects and goals is important for preservation of the river’s current state. Multi-lateral collaboration in the region is of course no easy task. In the article, Fullbrook describes the difficulties of cooperation in the region, “National interests, old suspicions and enduring rivalries remain obstacles to meaningful cooperation.” The fact that countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are looking to invest in similar projects, some of which they seek Chinese financial support for, further complicates matters. It seems evident that these conflicting interests could complicate prospects for sound policy among nations in the region.

In concluding his paper, Fullbrook’s explains that the costs of the dam projects will initially fall mostly on poor, voiceless people. He states, “With the lives of sixty million people tied to the river, the number of forced migrants could be substantial… Removing people’s food security is a recipe for poverty, a catalyst for instability, and perhaps even crisis.” Although this may be true, the article did little to emphasize the positive benefits of the dam projects. There is much good to be said about encouraging investment in the countries, increasing energy security and bringing in large revenue streams for the governments. In addition to diversifying energy supplies and easing energy concerns, in theory the revenues from these projects could trickle down to the people and go towards compensating the displaced farmers and fishermen for their losses. Those who are most affected, however, must first be identified and unfortunately this rarely occurs. As a result, profits often do not go to those who need the money the most. Based on the reading by Fullbrook, I believe the governments of Southeast Asian countries should pursue better analysis of the long term effects of dam projects before continuing construction at such a rapid pace. However, based on current trends this is unlikely to happen.