Five Questions a Project Manager Should Ask About Every Estimate Anthony A DeMarco, President, PRICE Systems, L.L.C.

Introduction Every day, project managers make decisions based on estimates. Since each decision can determine whether a project succeeds or fails, accurate estimates are critical. Projects launched without a rigorous initial estimate are five times more probable of experiencing delays and cancellations. Even projects with sound initial estimates are doomed to overrun cost and schedule budgets if they are not guided by rules of thumb and rigorous estimates-to-complete. Therefore, project managers must be armed with simple metrics and rigorous estimating models to be successful. Simple or complex, there are five questions project managers should ask about every estimate as they define and manage their projects. This paper stresses the value of accurate estimating, the project management discipline developing estimating rules-of-thumb and the application of those metrics to aid successful decision-making. Project Managers must be Accurate Estimators The key to successful project completion is an accurate estimate and a realistic risk assessment. Capers Jones, in a study of two hundred and fifty complex, software-intensive projects identified only twenty-five as successful in achieving their initial cost, schedule and performance objectives. Jones defines a failed project as one that is six months over schedule and fifteen percent over its cost estimate (p.5). Cost estimating was revealed as one of the six best practices utilized by the successful projects. How to be an Accurate Estimator Successful project managers make daily use of three powerful tools to become accurate estimators: simple rules-of-thumb, rigorous predictive mathematical models, and the project management triangle. They create an accurate estimating discipline in their organizations