...ECONOMIC GROWTH? A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR BANGLADESH ECONOMY MD. SHARIF HOSSAIN (PH. D.)1 - KHND. MD. MOSTAFA KAMAL2 Abstract In this paper the principal purpose has been made to investigate the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Bangladesh. To investigate long-run causal linkages between stock market development and economic growth the Engle-Granger causality and ML tests are applied. In this paper another attempt has been made to investigate the non-stationarity in the series of stock market development and economic growth by using modern econometric techniques. The co-integrated tests are applied to know whether this pair of variables shares the same stochastic trend or not. From our analysis it has been found that the stock market development strongly influences the economic growth in Bangladesh economy, but there is no causation from economic growth to stock market development. Thus unidirectional causality has prevailed between stock market development and economic growth in the Bangladesh economy. Also it has been found that all the variables are integrated of order 1, and both the variables stock market development and economic growth share the same stochastic trend in Bangladesh economy. JEL Code: C010 Key Words: Stock Market Development, Causal Relationship, Non-stationarity, Unit Root Test, Co-integrated Tests 1 Introduction Stock market development plays an important role for economic growth in the developed and developing...
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...ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP AN ECONOMETRICS ASSIGNMENT SUBMITTED BY ------------------------------------------------- OLUWAFEMI JOSHUA IBRAHIM MATRIC NUMBER: 121937 LEVEL: 700 LECTURER IN-CHARGE: PROFESSOR E.O. OGUNKOLA November, 2010 1) STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM Electricity plays a very important role in the socio-economic and technological development of every nation. It is widely accepted that there is a strong correlation between socio-economic development and the availability of electricity (Sambo, 2008). It is generally recognized that energy, including electricity, plays a significant role in economic development, not only because it enhances the productivity of capital , labour and other factors of production, but also that increased consumption, particularly commercial energy like electricity, signifies high economic status of a country(Aklas & Yilmaz, 2008). The relationship that exists between electricity consumption and economic growth has been of great interest to many researchers. The study of this relationship arises from the need to understand the complex links between these variables. Such understanding is basic to regulators and investors in deregulated electricity markets, in order to design a system that is reliable, efficient and growth-efficient. The empirical argument has been centered on whether economic growth responds to increase in electricity consumption, or whether...
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...Economics and Policy Vol. 3, No. 4, 2013, pp.360-366 ISSN: 2146-4553 www.econjournals.com Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Sectors in Malaysia Mohd Shahidan Shaari School of Business Innovation and Technopreneurship, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, Malaysia. Email: shahidanshaari@unimap.edu.my Tan Lee Pei School of Business Innovation and Technopreneurship, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, Malaysia. Email: pui_tlp@yahoo.com Hafizah Abdul Rahim School of Business Innovation and Technopreneurship, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, Malaysia. Email: hafizahrahim@unimap.edu.my ABSTRACT: This paper aims to examine the effects of oil price shocks on economic sectors in Malaysia. A unit root test was conducted, in which data were shown to be non-stationary in all levels, and stationary in the first difference for all variables. The co-integration model was applied, and the results indicated that one co-integrating equation exists, suggesting the long-term effects of oil prices on the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and transportation sectors. Finally, Grange causality test was performed, and the results implied that in Malaysia, oil price shocks can affect agriculture, similar to Hanson et al. (2010). Oil price instability also influences the performance of the agriculture sector, contrary to the results of Alper and Torul (2009). In addition, the construction sector was found to be dependent on oil prices. Therefore, the current study has an important implication for the Malaysian...
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...The Relationship between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate in India Pradyumna Dash[1] Introduction The theoretical as well as empirical relationship between the interest rate and exchange rate has been a debatable issue among the economists. According to Mundell-Fleming model, an increase in interest rate is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate depreciation and to curb the inflationary pressure and thereby helps to avoid many adverse economic consequences. The high interest rate policy is considered important for several reasons. Firstly, it provides the information to the market about the authorities’ resolve not to allow the sharp exchange rate movement that the market expects given the state of the economy and thereby reduce the inflationary expectations and prevent the vicious cycle of inflation and exchange rate depreciation. Secondly, it raises the attractiveness of domestic financial assets as a result of which capital inflow takes place and thereby limiting the exchange rate depreciation. Thirdly, it not only reduces the level of domestic aggregate demand but also improves the balance of payment position by reducing the level of imports. But the East Asian currency crisis and the failure of high interest rates policy to stabilize the exchange rate at its desirable level during 1997-1998 have challenged the credibility of raising interest rates to defend the exchange rate. Critics argue that the high interest rates imperil the ability of the domestic firms...
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...Jurnal £kollomi Malaysia 35 (2001) 61 - 68 Interest Rate and Loan Supply: Islamic Versus Conventional Banking System Liza Marwati Mohd Yusoff Aisyah Abdul Rahman Norazlan Alias ABSTRACT This paper attempts to explore the effect of interest rate 011 loan supply of Islamic banking alld Convemional banking system. The analysis segregated the Islamic and COllvellfional banking system imo commercial bank, finance company alld merchant bank. Overnight alld 3 month Klibor are llsed as interest proxy. Unit root test, Granger Causality test, Akaike Information Criterion and Regression analysist are IIsed in the study. The results of Granger Causality test indicate that the growth of overnight Klibor ca uses changes in the growth of Islamic and Conventional loan of Mercham Banks significantly and from the regression analysis, it is confirm that Islamic and Conventional loan growth of merchant bank are significantly positive related to overnight Klibor. INTRODUCTION The additional amo}Int a borrower pays a lender, over and above the borrowed sum (principal) is commonl y called interest. This interest depends on the size of the principal and the length of time the borrower takes to repay the principal and interest. For this reason, and for computational convenience, interest is usually expressed in terms of percentage per annum and is called the rate of interest. In banks there are three players. The players are the bank, the depositor and the borrower. The depositor places...
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...On the Relationship between stock return and exchange rate: evidence on China Yaqiong Li a b , Lihong Huang b a b The Business School, Loughborough University ,UK College of Mathematics and Econometrics, Hunan University, Changsha ,Hunan ,China Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between RMB exchange rate and A-share stock returns in China, in particular in Shanghai stock market. We find that both stock returns and RMB nominal exchange rate are integrated of order 1. The Engle–Granger cointegration test is then performed, suggesting that there is not a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock returns and RMB exchange rates at 5% significance level. However, there is strong evidence suggesting that there is a short-run uni-directional causality relationship from the nominal exchange rate to the stock returns. Keywords: cointegration; Granger causality; RMB exchange rate; stock return; unit root test. 1. Introduction The China’s exchange rate policy has recently emerged as one of major issues in the trade between the PR of China and the United States of America. The controversy is fuelled by China’s pegging of RMB to USD. Since a major devaluation of the RMB in 1994, the Chinese currency’s exchange rate vis-a-vis USD remained more or less unchanged until 21 July 2005, and has fluctuated from RMB 8.22 to 8.11 per dollar since then. The Chinese Authority has recently announced that “RMB will be no longer pegged to the US dollar”...
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...FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND GROWTH IN CYPRUS: A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP N0373193 This research project is submitted in part-fulfilment of the degree of Bachelor of Arts (Honours) Economics, Finance and Banking Nottingham Business School Nottingham Trent University Summer 2014 Chosen Target Peer-Refereed Academic Journal: Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, December 2011, vol. 16, no. 3 (http://www.arraydev.com/commerce/jibc/) Declaration: I declare that I have personally prepared this article and that it has not, in whole or in part, been submitted as an assessment for any other module, degree or qualification. The work described here is my own, carried out personally unless otherwise stated. All sources of information, including quotations, are acknowledged by means of appropriate referencing. I declare that this project has been conducted in accordance with Nottingham Trent University’s Regulations on Academic Irregularities, including those pertaining to research ethics and Data Protection legislation. Contents: PAGE Abstract 3 Abbreviations 4 List of Tables 5 List of Figures 5 1. Introduction ...
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...Does Saving really matter for Growth in Developing Countries? The Case of a Small Open Economy Olajide S. Oladipo, PhD Department of Economics and Finance School of Business, Medgar Evers College 1637 Bedford Avenue, Brooklyn, NY 11225 Email: ooladipo@ mec.cuny.edu Abstract The study employed the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lutkepohl (1996) – TYDL- methodology to uncover the direction of causal relationship between savings and economic growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2006. The empirical results suggest that savings and economic growth are positively cointegrated indicating a stable long run equilibrium relationship. Further, the findings revealed a unidirectional causality between savings and economic growth and the complementary role of FDI in growth. Keywords: Cointegration, FDI, Savings and Economic Growth JEL Classification: C32; E21;O11 Does Saving really matter for Growth in Developing Countries? The Case of a Small Open Economy Introduction The relationship between savings and economic growth has received increased attention in recent years especially in developed and emerging economies [see Bacha (1990), DeGregorio (1992), Levine and Renelt (1992), and Jappelli and Pagano (1994)]. This might not be unconnected to the central underpinning of Lewis’s (1955) traditional development theory that increasing savings would accelerate economic growth. Research efforts by Kaldor (1956) and Samuelson and Modigliani (1966) examined how different savings...
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...[Cover page] Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Working Paper Series: WP 0604 Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005 Shamim Ahmed Md. Golam Mortaza December 2005 Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Research Department, Bangladesh Bank Head Office, Dhaka, Bangladesh (www.bangladeshbank.org.bd) (www.bangladesh-bank.org) Policy Analysis Unit* (PAU) Working Paper Series: WP 0604 Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005 Shamim Ahmed Research Economist, Policy Analysis Unit Research Department Bangladesh Bank Md. Golam Mortaza Senior Research Associate Centre for Policy Dialogue December 2005 Copyright © 2005 by Bangladesh Bank * The Bangladesh Bank (BB), in cooperation with the World Bank Institute (WBI), has formed the Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) within its Research Department in July 2005. The aim behind this initiative is to upgrade the capacity for research and policy analysis at BB. As part of its mandate PAU will publish, among other, several Working Papers on macroeconomic research completed by its staff every quarter. The precise topics of these papers are chosen by the Resident Economic Adviser in consultation with the PAU members. These papers reflect research in progress, and as such comments are most welcome. It is anticipated that a majority of these papers will eventually be published in learned journals after the due review process. Neither the Board of Directors nor the management of Bangladesh Bank, nor WBI, nor any agency...
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...relation between the exchange rate and stock prices, some studies even have analyzed the relation by considering some of the other variables (like FDI, interest rate, inflation rate ect), to see if these variables have any influence on the fluctuating exchange rate and stock prices. The current literature provides year by year explanation about the Different opinions and arguments of various researches on the relationship between exchange rate and stock prices. For the easy understanding the chapter will be divided into two sections. The first section will cover all the research papers published prior to 1990's. one can observe that most of the studies in section one had established the relationship by measuring the exposure from fluctuating exchange rates to stock prices, so we will name this part as “literature review on measuring the exposure'. And in second section; we cover all the research papers which are published after 1990's and one can observe that some of the studies have established the relation by measuring the causal relation between the exchange rate and stock prices, so we would name the second part as” literature review on measuring the causality relation between the exchange rate and stock prices'. The reason for considering empirical evidence from these two model in our literature is because; as many of the previous studies, to establish the relation between the exchange rate and stock prices, have considered different models (to name few GARCH, ARCH etc). However...
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...Literature Review To examine the dynamic linkages between the foreign exchange and stock markets for India, Samanta and Nath (2003) employed the Granger causality test on daily data during the period March 1993 to December 2002. The empirical findings of the study suggest that these two markets did not have any causal relationship. When the study extended its analysis to verily if liberalization in both the markets brought them together, it found no significant causal relationship between the exchange rate and stock price movements, except for the years l993, 2001 and 2002 during when a unidirectional causal influence from stock index return to return in forex market is detected and a very mild causal influence in the reverse direction is...
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...Corpus linguistics and language pedagogy: The state of the art – and beyond Joybrato Mukherjee Justus Liebig University, Giessen Abstract The present paper provides a selected overview of the state of the art in corpusinformed language pedagogy. Starting off from a general assessment of the impact that the corpus revolution has already had on English language teaching (ELT), the focus of the main part of this paper is on some typical examples of corpus use in three language-pedagogically relevant areas: (1) using corpora for ELT (e.g. producing learner dictionaries); (2) using corpora in the ELT classroom (e.g. in data-driven learning); (3) using learner corpora. With regard to learner corpus research, for example, the paper also sketches out some prospects for future research, e.g. the compilation of local learner corpora. 1 Introduction: the corpus revolution and English language teaching There is general agreement among empirically-oriented linguists that the advent of large, computerised corpora has revolutionised the linguistic description and analysis of the English language. In modern corpus linguistics, not just any group of texts qualifies as a corpus, but it must be "a collection of texts assumed to be representative of a given language, dialect, or other subset of a language" (Francis 1982: 7). Representativeness is a key issue in corpus design because it captures the attempt to compile a database that provides a statistically viable sample of language...
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...Table of Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Literature review 1 1.2. Theoretical review of financial development and economic growth nexus 1 1.3 Review of the empirical literature 4 1.3.1 Time series 5 1.3.2 Cross-country studies 6 1.3.3 Panel data studies 7 3 Conclusions 8 4 References 9 1 Introduction “Finance is powerful. The financial system can be an engine of economic prosperity – or a destructive cause of economic decline and misery.” Levine, R. (2011) p.85 Obviously, financial system and economy are related. But what is the nature of this relationship? The objective of this paper is to critically evaluate the existing theoretical and empirical literature on the finance-growth nexus. What is the role of the financial sector in economic growth? Does finance cause growth or simply follows it? There is no wide agreement about this task among recognised economists. Even Nobel Prize winners disagree in regard to the role of finance in economic development. Levine (2003) states that the role of finance as a major determinant of economic growth is over-stressed. Moreover Levine (2003) argued that where enterprise leads finance follows. Quite the opposite, important acknowledgment should be taken into account and it follows as “[the idea] that financial markets contribute to economic growth is a proposition too obvious for serious discussion.” Levine (2003) p.1 Similar to that, he also declared that the finance growth...
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...In India the issue is also gaining importance in the liberalization era. With this background, the present study examines the causal relationship between returns in stock market and forex market in India. Using daily data from March 1993 to December 2002, we found that causal link is generally absent though in recent years there has been strong causal influence from stock market return to forex market return. The results, however, are tentative and we need further in-depth research to identify the causes and consequences of the findings. January 2003 * Manager, NSEIL, Bandra-Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051 ** Assistant Adviser, RBI, DESACS, C-8, Bandra-Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051 The views expressed in the paper are those of the authours’ and not necessarily of the organizations they belong to. 1 Introduction The Asian crisis of 1997-98 has made a strong pitch for dynamic linkage between stock prices and exchange rates. During the crisis period, the world has noticed that the emerging markets collapsed due to substantial depreciation of exchange rates (in terms of US$) as well as dramatic fall in the stock prices. This has become important again from the view point of large cross border movement of funds due to portfolio investment and not due to actual trade flows, though trade flows have some impact on stock prices of the companies whose main sources of revenue comes from foreign exchange. In...
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...Volume–VII, Number–02, July-December, 2012 Effects of Interest Rate and Exchange Rate on Volatility of Market Index at Dhaka Stock Exchange DEWAN MUKTADIR-AL-MUKIT * ABSTRACT The paper investigates the effects of the exchange rates and interest rates on stock market performance by using monthly time series data for the economy of Bangladesh, over the period of 1997 to 2010. This study uses econometric techniques of measuring the long and short term relationship between variables using the concept of Cointegration and Error Correction Model and analysis of Variance Decomposition. Causal relationships have been investigated using Granger causality test. By employing Cointegration technique it is observed that in the long run, a one percent increase in exchange rate and in interest rate contributes1.04% increase and 1.71 % decrease in market index respectively. The estimated error correction coefficient indicates that 7.8 percent deviation of stock returns are corrected in the short run. Finally, Granger causality analysis suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality from market index to exchange rate and from interest rate to market index. Keywords: Cointegration, Granger Causality. Exchange rate, Interest rate, DGEN index 1. INTRODUCTION A well functioning financial system boosts economic growth through proper and efficient allocation of resources. As a part of financial system, the importance and role of stock market towards achieving economic growth is crucial. The...
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