Abstract
Climate Change is a global problem that is creating regional impacts to food security. Climate studies require the analysis of vast pools of data that are more easily processed by filtering down to the micro-climates or sub-climates of particular regions. Many studies have been completed utilizing global climate observations in an attempt to model changes to regional food production zones. Private organizations or government grant making groups with an interest in how climate change will directly impact their particular food security have funded most of the research available on this topic. Much of the literature available indicates that economically secure countries are more equipped to handle the food security impacts of climate change and have dedicated fewer resources to studying this issue. Three regions that have completed significant climate studies in relation to food security are Eurasia, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Australia (to include the Pacific island nations). All three regions discuss the use of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) to address their food security concerns.

The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security Climate change presents a multitude of potentially dangerous issues for world communities to solve. Perhaps the largest of these issues is the impact of climate change on food security. T. Thamizhvanan and K. Balaguru (2012) indicate that food security has four dimensions: “availability, accessibility, food utilization, and food system stability” (p. 1). In spite of a global food market, most researchers consider food systems to be regional in nature (Barnett, 2011). This “regional” food system consideration is reflected by private organizations and local governments in Europe, Asia, and the South Pacific (Australia and the Pacific islands) funding many of the recently completed studies covering the impact of climate change on the food security of their particular regions. The benefit of regional research may ultimately produce global food security when all agricultural zones have the capacity to meet or exceed their own food security requirements in spite of climate change. To accurately model the impact of climate change on food security, researchers apply the four dimensions of food security to their research. One study argues that food security is achieved when all citizens have access and means to acquire safe and healthy food at all times (Quaye, Yawson, Ayeh, & Yawson, 2012). This argument for food security coupled with the volume of data required to model climate change’s impacts lends value to the regional basis of study on climate impacts. The resources to calculate and forecast climate change on a global scale are simply not available to most research groups. The Pacific Islands are one of the regions with limited resources to study the impact of climate change. The 2008 issue of Secretariat (as cited by Barnett, 2011), indicates the region is made up of “twenty-two island states and territories in the South Pacific.” The gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of these island nations range from US $650 in Kiribati to US$29,820 in New Caledonia compared with the United States’ GDP per capita of $49,965 (Barnett, 2011). Additionally, Barnett (2011) reveals that most Pacific Island nations use agriculture for subsistence purposes and rarely to sell in domestic or international markets. Statistically, these countries cannot afford to apply resources to global studies of climate change. Because of the cost and geographical constraints of climate modeling, the projections in climate to the Pacific Islands apply to the entire region not to specific countries (Barnett, 2011).
Models suggest that the Pacific Islands will experience two types of water related climate change extremes. Rainfall totals are one expected climate change phenomenon in the region. In 2003 a study by Ruosteenoja et al. (as cited by Barnett, 2011) indicated the dry months will experience less rainfall than historically observed while the wetter months will sustain even more precipitation. This is especially disconcerting for a region susceptible to drought and flood conditions. Sea level rise is the second water related climate change phenomenon predicted to impact the area. Barnett (2011) relays data from The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) by repeating that sea-levels are predicted to rise between 9 and 88 cm by the year 2100 (p. s231). The impacts of drought, flooding, and salt intrusion from sea-level rise on agriculture are certain to cause economically measurable losses in the Pacific Island region.
Australian researcher S.K. Dhaliwal (2012) indicated that GMO use is one way to combat flooding and drought tolerance in the Pacific region. GMOs are organisms whose genetic structure has been modified to produce a variant of the original organism (Brookes & Barfoot, 2013). GMO crops can be modified to be resistant to the mildews and molds brought on by wetter conditions or can be bio-engineered to need less irrigation during periods of drought (Dhaliwal, 2012).
Additionally, the Pacific Island nations have observed a rise in sea-surface temperatures. In 1998, when sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record (to that point), another destructive facet of climate change was observed; coral bleaching. Coral bleaching is the outward sign that a reef is dying. The reef building organisms succumb to the higher temperatures and die. A dying reef can be eroded by waves and tidal action over time. Loss of reef structure would be a significant impact to the Pacific Island region. Coral Atolls in the Pacific Island regions provide important protection from storms for the encompassed island, fishing grounds for local fisheries, and habitat for many marine species. The economic impact of climate related reef loss could prove too costly a recovery for many of the Pacific Island member nations (Barnett, 2011).
Another region preparing for the potentially catastrophic economic impacts of climate change is sub-Saharan Africa. Quaye et al. (2012) indicate that 60-70% of Africa depends on agriculture for their livelihood but only 4% of cropped land in the region has access to irrigation (p. 6357). This means that rainfall is the primary source of water for agricultural products. Any fluctuation of rainfall can be a significant detriment to crop yields. The UN IPCC is also quoted by Quaye et al. to support their concerns. The 2001 UN IPCC report (as cited by Quaye et al., 2012) suggests rainfall will decrease by 20% or more in the African Agricultural Zone. The sub-Saharan region will most likely experience an increase in food insecurity (Quaye et al., 2012). Climate extremes are expected to diminish the availability of nutritional food supplies causing widespread malnutrition. With 28% of the Ghana population living below the poverty line (Quaye et al., 2012), the economic resources to fight climate change may not match the economic catastrophe many models predict will besiege the region.
In addition to economic impacts felt in the sub-Saharan region, medical models suggest significant changes to populations as a result of “undernutrition” (Loyd, Kovats, & Chalabi, 2011). Loyd et al. (2011) indicates, “Undernutrition refers to a physical state and is measured using (among other things) anthropometric indices such as stunting (height for age) and underweight (weight for age). Their study models an increase in both severe stunting (55%) and underweight (52%) in sub-Saharan African children as a result of climate change (Loyd et al., 2011). The conclusions of Quaye et al. and Loyd et al. show why the pursuit of low-cost, high-value nutrition alternatives have become a priority of sub-Saharan researchers.
Government officials and local farmers may possibly benefit from the work of regional researchers like Quaye et al. by applying the solutions found in their work. Quaye et al. (2012) suggest biotechnology lead the way in solving the problem of food security in sub-Saharan Africa. The use of GMOs is a commonly repeated theme among studies on food security in the sub-Saharan region. Like Dhaliwal, Brookes and Barfoot (2013) also suggest that a GMO variant can be drought tolerant or pest resistant. Dhaliwal (2012) continued on to report how scientifically engineered plants can produce up to ten times the vitamin value and eight times the mineral content (p. 41). Producing crops with higher nutrient content could be a significant tool for sub-Saharan farmers to combat the decreased crop yields expected as a result of climate change.
Battling crop yield decreases is not a problem unique to sub-Saharan Africa. Recently completed studies of the Eurasian agricultural zones also anticipate significant impacts to agriculture in this region. O’ Brien and Mullins (2009) suggest that climate change will be the toughest challenge facing Ireland’s farm community in the future. The 2007 IPCC report (as cited by O’Brien & Mullins, 2009) anticipate rainfall rates to increase in the winter by as much as 15% and decrease in the summer by up to 20%. Decreased rainfall in the summer will potentially reduce irrigation capabilities. Potato harvest yields would decline if irrigation or rainfall is interrupted during the growing season (O’Brien & Mullins, 2009).
In addition to edible crop yields, O’ Brien and Mullins (2009) introduce the subject of producing biofuels. Achieving the goal of 10% biofuel market use in Ireland by 2020 will require the expansion of land dedicated to biofuel crop cultivation. Ireland currently uses 250,000 hectares of tillage land to achieve the current standard of 5.75% biofuel use according to a 2007 study by Rice (as cited by O’Brien & Mullins, 2009). The expansion of farmland for biofuel crop growth is in direct competition with land used for food crop cultivation (O’Brien & Mullins, 2009).
Other Eurasian studies repeat the findings of O’Brien and Mullins. F.P. O’Mara’s (2012) study focuses on the impact of climate change on natural grasslands. Grasslands, according to O’Mara, are in significant states of degradation due to climate change and over grazing by ruminant animals. Ruminant animals are the primary source of the milk and meat products in the Eurasian agricultural zone (O’Mara, 2012). According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations 2011 report of findings (as cited by O’Mara, 2012), dairy demand is expected to grow by 22% over the next ten years. Growth in grazing requirements to meet the rise in dairy demand will further degrade the natural grasslands if intervention does not become more proactive (O’Mara, 2012).
O’Mara (2012) also sheds considerable light on why grasslands are important in the fight against climate change. Grasslands sequester (store) carbon in the soil at rates significantly higher than forest land (O’Mara, 2012). The tighter root structure of natural grasslands creates a barrier to keep carbon from escaping into the atmosphere. O’Mara (2012) concludes that effective grassland management is an effective tool against climate change and world hunger.
Many developing countries in the Eurasian agricultural zone do not rely on ruminant meat and dairy or poultry and pork as the largest provider of nutritional dietary content. Cereal grain production remains a significant supplier of the dietary requirements in the Eurasian agricultural production region. Devkota et al. (2013) studied the impact of climate change on rice yields. Their study indicates an anticipated 3-4 degree Celsius increase of average temperatures in the subject region. In conjunction with expected CO2 increases from 380 ppm currently to 485-1000ppm by the end of the century, rice crop yields were initially modeled to be reduced by as much as 30% (Devkota et al., 2013).
Crop management science, the central premise of the Devkota et al. (2013) study, is presented as a temporary way to combat the impact of climate change on rice. The research team shows that variations in planting times, watering amounts and harvest periods can actually increase the yield of rice crops in the Eurasian zone. In 2011, Krishnan et al. (as cited by Devkota et al., 2013) found increased yields during rainfall and warmer conditions may not be present under manual irrigation.
Many researchers in the Eurasian growing region are in concert with the research teams on the sub-Saharan African studies. The use of GMOs to combat the impacts of climate change is a prevalent conclusion of the Eurasian studies; however, it’s not just the researchers that are chiming in on the use of GMOs. The United Kingdom’s Environment Agency Chief, Chris Smith was reported to tell farmers at the 2010 National Farmers Union Conference he believed farmers should be open to using GMOs to deal with the effects of climate change (Stocks, 2010). Smith stated, “My own personal view is that we probably need to be readier to explore GM options, coupled of course with proper environmental safeguards, in adapting to the changes that the climate will bring” (Stocks, 2010).
With the support of the scientific community and the attitudes of government officials changing to embrace the use of GMOs, it is likely that GMO research and use will grow in the coming decades (Brookes &Barfoot, 2013). According to Brookes and Barfoot (2013) GM traits accounted for 44% of the global plantings of canola, maize, cotton, and soybeans in 2011(p. 109). These plantings reduced fuel consumption, herbicide, and fertilizer use at a rate equivalent to the removal of 9.4 million cars off of roads worldwide (Brookes & Barfoot, 2013). Ultimately the studies completed in Eurasia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Pacific Islands came to similar conclusions: Food security is a major concern of climate change research. The ability to feed the citizens of a country or region will be impacted by climate change without significant planning and devotion of resources to this issue. Most researchers also concluded that GMOs are an acceptable solution for maintaining nutritional value and crop yields in affected areas. The data in all of the reviewed studies is presented as a culmination of processing historical empirical data and recent observations.
Compiling data for scientific community use is one thing, but how can the same researchers communicate this data to the average person? According to Learning about Climate: An Exploration of the Socialization of Climate Change, earlier studies by Hulme in 2008 and 2009 and Urry in 2011 (as cited by Hopkins, 2013) concluded that climate change is both a physical and social phenomenon. It is important to present the findings of any climate change study by acknowledging the non-scientific public can perceive and learn in different ways (Hopkins, 2013). Regional education levels, exposure to knowledge resources, and regional biases can all affect the way citizens grasp the information found in scientific studies. The models and statistics produced by climate change studies have multiple audiences. Heads of state rely on the scientific community to make national policies and average farmers rely on the studies to plan seasonal planting and harvesting calendars.
Hopkins used this multi-audience approach to drive the social aspect of her study. Many participants presented evidence of trusting the science but were unable to trust the media sources presenting the data to them (Hopkins, 2013, p. 382). Without the trust of the common public, Hopkins (2013) argues the science behind climate change will remain “far-off” news to the common citizen.
In conclusion, the impact of climate change on food security is presented as a real and catastrophic problem facing the growing regions presented herein. All regions anticipate changes in temperature, precipitation, and growing seasons. Without intervention, these changes will impact the crop yields in all the studied regions. The scientific community has made efforts to convince both government and common farmer alike that GMO crops present a viable solution to maintaining or improving food security in their particular regions. The remaining problem for some researchers is getting the public to buy in to these solutions before food security losses become irreversible.

References
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