The Indus River Basin: The Continuing Water Disputes Between India and Pakistan

Anise Ko August 7, 2014 Professor Beth Bennett

Introduction The Indus River was a key factor in the development of the Asian civilization. It originates in the Tibetan plateau and flows through four different countries: Tibet, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan to end in the Arabian Sea. The Indus River catchment area is as follows: sixty percent of the area belongs to Pakistan, about twenty percent belongs to India, five percent belongs to Afghanistan and fifteen per cent belongs to Tibet (Aljazeera, 2011). There are a total of six main tributaries: Sutlej, Ravi and Beas flow through Punjab and the other three rivers of the Indus basin - Indus, Jhelum and Chenab run through the territory of Jammu and Kashmir (Harvard, 2011). Since the partition of the British Indian empire in 1947, Pakistan and India have fought over the province of Punjab and the state of Kashmir, which resulted in a partition of the area between the two countries. The water dispute is also closely related to partition of the Kashmir region, too. The six rivers run through India which controls Jammu and Kashmir, before reaching Pakistan and the part of Jammu and Kashmir governed by Pakistan (Harvard, 2011). The geological allocation described above brought out significant disadvantages to Pakistan in early the1950s as a consequence of the political conflicts between the two countries. The help of the World Bank together with other third parities made possible the signing of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan in 1960, relieving political tensions on the both sides. Due to the high demand of water resources over sixty years and the insufficient supply, the Indus Water Treaty has faced harsh criticism resulting in water wars among other political conflicts. Considering the strong dependency on water resources from Indus River by both Pakistan and India, and the potential consequences of

an escalation of the conflict, an urgent resolution for the water dispute is required. In this paper, first the political background between Pakistan and India will be examined, which would bring a better understanding the origin of the issue. Second, the background of the agreement reached between India and Pakistan through the IWT is reviewed and its significance examined. Third, the current status of the treaty highlighting the most important obstacles is analyzed and showed how they are addressed. Last, a total of four recommendations designed with the aim of solving the ongoing water disputes between India and Pakistan are suggested. Political Background between India and Pakistan over Kashmir The partition of the British Indian Empire in 1947 led to the creation of the states of Pakistan and India. The unstable political system and power struggle between both Pakistan and India highly impacted the security of water resources in Kashmir’s transboundary regions. Pakistan relies on the Indus River as one of the main drivers of its economy; however the upper river basins are located in an area that belongs to India. Both Pakistan, and India participated in three wars over the control of Kashmir, worsening the disputes of water resources, particularly those regarding the rights over the Indus River flow. The initial agreement of division of water resources, named “Standstill Agreement” was made by chief engineers of East Punjab (India) and West Punjab (Pakistan) in 1947. On April 1, 1948, when the “Standstill Agreement” expired, India cut the water flow to Dipalpur Canal and Upper Bari Daab Canal causing serious drought and famine to Pakistan. Along with increasing tensions between India and Pakistan, the Pakistan’s public administration had no other option but signed in 1950 the “Delhi

Agreement” granting Pakistan some time to find alternative water resources before India finally cut the water flow. This agreement demonstrates how an abusive political strategy from one country could seriously impact another in a war over the control of natural resources. The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) In the “Delhi Agreement,” Pakistan brought the dispute over water rights and water management onto the international stage in order to seek a third party’s help. The World Bank played an active and very important role at that moment. Former World Bank president David Black emphasized the need for “essential principles” regarding conflict resolution such as the cooperation of basin management (Harvard, 2001). Black also argued that apart from political aspects, applying functional aspects to negotiate Indus disputes is a key factor to resolve the issues such as an efficient usage of Indus water resource (Harvard, 2011). Under the supervision of the World Bank, both countries met four times before reaching an agreement on the Indus Water Treaty on September 19,1960. The treaty gave exclusive rights over the three western rivers of the Indus river system -Jhelum, Chenab and Indus - to Pakistan and over the three eastern rivers - Sutlej, Ravi and Beas - to India. The treaty made an exception for use of water in Western River by India including Generation of Hydroelectric Power (Harvard, 2011). For over sixty years, this agreement has been considered one of the most remarkable water treaties in history.

New challenges on water resources and IWT Over the last ten years, the peaceful Indus Water Treaty faced new challenges. Due to external factors such as climate changes, population expansion, and inefficient irrigation methods, the available water resources for irrigation (agriculture industry) in Pakistan and India have been significantly reduced with potential negative consequences such as the lack of food and drinking water. In addition, massive hydroelectric dams on Jhelum, Chenab and Indus River, allocated to Pakistan by IWT, were built and are planning to build by India in near future. Pakistan has raised objections against constructing dams in violation of IWT because dams will facilitate India to control water resources. In March 21, 2010, hundreds of farmers gathered in Rampur village on the Pakistan-India border, demonstrating againt “India water terrorism” that country’s blocking the water flow to Pakistan (World Political Review, 2010). However, international experts said that there is little evidence of India’s alternation of water flow even though Pakistan’s claim is understandable because the water resource of Pakistan is located downstream of India (The Washington Post, 2010). One of the biggest hydroelectric dams construction by India started in 1999, the Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project with a capacity of 450 MW in its first stage on Chenab River, Jammu and Kashmir region increasing the tension between the two countries. In 2002, Pakistan officially communicated to India that the project violated a total of six provisions pertaining the Indus Water Treaty. The main concerns by Pakistan are that first, the artificial raising of the water level will impede the water flow downstream and also India can exert control of the water (Organ State, 2009). After India

and Pakistan failed to reach an agreement through several talks, Pakistan requested that the World Bank send a neutral expert (NE). The NE analyzed the objections raised by Pakistan and rejected most of them except for the one related to the dam’s height. The NE also mentioned that Pakistan’s objection is a “difference” and not a “dispute” matters. Pakistan was unsatisfied with the conclusions presented by the NE but they couldn't do anything against the NE’s verdicts. In 2008, after the dam was completed Pakistan raised this issue again indicating that the Indian Commissioner Mr. G. Arangnathan, had assured that there will be no reduction in water flow while the dam is filled. However, the water level started declining at Marala and went to a record low of 23,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs). He added that the water level was fluctuating between 30,000 and 35,000 cusecs, still far away from the original 55,000 mark (Harvard). After India’s official communicated to Pakistan regarding the data given by them, the low precipitation occurred in 2008 was the cause of the reduction in water discharge not because of hydroelectric dams. Pakistan’s anger toward India got worse. According a renowned columnist in Pakistan named to Ayaz Amir, the dispute [between Pakistan and India] of the future will be about water. Besides, currently, India is building (or projecting to build) 67 dams and canals around Jammu and Kashmir area in order to secure the water resources, which will bring out serious water war in these areas. Following consequences by current issues of water resources The decade long disputes between India and Pakistan regarding the control of natural resources is closely related to the national security for both countries. In terms of

economical benefits, Indus River is a crucial resource for two countries. For India, along with the rapid expansion of the population and growing the gross domestic product (GDP), the demand for energy has been rapidly increased. According to a study by the Asian Development Bank, “, , , in order to support a growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) of around 7% per annum [in India], the rate of growth of power supply needs to be over 10% annually.” In India, hydropower currently generates 32000 MW, which is one fifth of potential production, and India considers Jammu and Kashmir region as one of the most promising hydroelectric sites (Circle of Blue, 2010). On the other hand, Pakistan heavily depends on Indus River for irrigation and portable water resources. Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) in Pakistan is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, and IBIS requires almost 95 % of country’s water resource (Kochi, 2009). According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the economical impact of the Indus basin irrigation system represents 24 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, 70 percent of total exports, and 54 percent employment of labor force (TBL). Therefore, the importance of securing water resources for Pakistan is to avoid the abusive use of water resource by India so that Pakistan can benefit economically from the river and prevent famine and droughts. The disputes over limited water resources threaten safety in both nations. After completing the hydroelectric dam in Kashmir and Jammu, many Pakistani leaders started to criticize India as their eternal enemy and blamed them for threatening their economy (Aljazeera, 2011). In addition to this water-related conflict, both countries have been alerted for the potential occurrence of terrorism. Especially, Pakistan is one of the

countries that face increasing risk in terrorism. During 2009-2011, total casualties were more than 2000 (CFR). According to New York Times journalist Lydia Polgreen (NYT), the Muslim militant organization Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the charity wing of Lashkar-e-Taiba in Anti-Indian terrorist group, which is considered the masterminds behinds the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, has retooled its public relations efforts around the water dispute over the Kashmir region. This hostile provoked by Muslim militants could dangerously trigger additional conflicts as they bring out Pakistan’s hatred toward India over the long period wars on Kashmir. The resolution for water disputes between India and Pakistan To resolve the water conflict in trans-boundary region, it is essential to have an in-depth understanding about the situations and to build a critical assessment strategic with various points of view. Therefore, this document is recommending four solutions: First of all, the political approach is necessary to solve the water conflict such as improving the bilateral relation between the India and Pakistan through continual dialogue. Considering the origin of the water conflict from the partition of British India, it shows that the political division led both countries to fight over the Kashmir region and the water resources at the basing level which is a trans-boundary region. In addition, as it is discussed previously, political conflict over water issues between the two countries can promote aggression and hatred towards each other, and it can cause potential threatening to the national securities in each country. Therefore, continual dialogue to finding solutions for the political conflict can contribute to alleviate tension and to resolve the water allocation and deficiency problems in both countries. In 2009, the India - Pakistan

dialogue for the conflict resolution and peace building was held, and many current political issues were addressed including water distribution of the Indus River. Both parties agreed that water conflict among public negatively impacts on bilateral relation, and suggested frequent information exchange in order to achieve transparency of water supply and utilization of water resources (IPCS, 2009). Based on the example above, the continual bilateral dialog would lead to positive results, giving better understanding on each party’s local situations and finding alternative solutions which can give benefits for both parties. Second, when two parties are no longer able to come up with practical solutions, the support from a third party could positively contribute to facilitating to find the resolutions (FAO). For example, the World Bank played a critical role in mediating the Indus Water Treaty in 1960. Despite Pakistan’s inferior condition: the disadvantage of allocation of river basin, this agreement allowed Pakistan to use exclusively three western rivers of the Indus river (Jhelum, Chenab and Indus). This involvement of third party showed in other cases such as the water governance for the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) in South America. The GAS is a trans-boundary aquifer that encompasses Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. In 2010, four countries signed first shared management agreement for a trans-boundary aquifer, and the third party, the United Nations (UN) Resolution was deeply involved in the negotiation process in order to reach a peaceful agreement among them (IPCS, 2009). In the above examples of a third party’s involvement, the international regulatory bodies and third parties played an active role in protecting those countries that are being affected by abusive systems and are in inferior

situations. Furthermore, in order to increase funding resources for water management, the renowned organizations such a UN and WTO can effectively perform to publicize the issues to call the attention to the world. For example, the World Bank helped Pakistan to raise the funds for the development of the watershed for an amount close to $900 million, organizing a consortium of donors (Organ State, 2009). Third, it is necessary to modify the Indus Water Treaty, reflecting current internal and external changes, and to clarify the interpretation of those articles on the IWT again based on negotiation conducted in 1950. The significant changes occurred during the last fifty years in terms of environmental and technological conditions, especially climate change (Harvard, 2011). According to the study conducted by Uppasala, in the past two decades, Pakistan’s greenhouse gas emission increased double because of massive usage of fertilizer and agriculture practices. Currently, Pakistan faces serious problems of climate change; rising temperature and changing rainfall and resultant shortage of water which cause cropped food shortage, high inflation and irrigation water scarcity (Uppasala University). However, the IWT did not include any potential changes by external and internal factors, which both countries must consider. Besides, the necessity of modification of IWT issue was first raised by Pakistan after the verdict announced by a neutral expert, Professor Raymond Lafitte of Switzerland. Considering his civil engineering background, Lafitte evaluated the disputes over Baglihar project only based on a technical point of view, which led him to reject Pakistan’s objection unlike Pakistan’s approach which interprets the disputes of Baglihar project from the legal and political points of view (Harvard). Therefore, Pakistan requested a reevaluation of the verdicts because the Indus Water Treaty is laid out in its

Preamble in “a spirit of goodwill and friendship” and in a “ cooperative spirit” which cannot ignore perspectives other than technical views (Harvard 2011). Last, Pakistan internally needs to improve the management of water resources along with increasing the efficiency of the irrigation systems. From the 1960s to the 1980s, Pakistan improved the production with excessive usage of water and fertilizer; however, since 1980, due to the climate changes and the limited water supply from the upper basin, the land has dried up, decreasing agricultural production. The increased demand for the production and lack of water resources raises the issue over the poor irrigation system; poor design, inequitable distribution, water logging, lack of affluent disposal (FAO) etc (ITB). Therefore, it is urgent that Pakistan’s government set up an integrated management plan for the agriculture sector in order to protect their economic and citizens from hunger. The reshaping irrigation systems, improving harvesting technics, shift cultivation from water intensive crops to low water required crops and investing in agriculture equipment can be water management methods. In addition, the government encourages and builds the environment where the private sectors can actively invest in agriculture sector. This investment can increase the production and promote implementation of the efficient irrigation management system. Conclusion Water disputes in the trans-boundary area among countries should be analyzed with politics, economics and social aspects, mainly because water is a part of human life. Along with political complications between India and Pakistan, the water issues are addressed as one of the main critical issues for both parties due to negative impacts on

bilateral relations. Over five years, because of various attempted and conducted terrorist activities, especially from Pakistan against India, both parties are worried about transmission of water disputes to terrorism which endangers the national security. After the Indus Water Agreement was signed in 1960, the contents of the IWA agreement have been maintained as they were, while the external and internal conditions for the water resources in the world have been changed dramatically. The high demand for, and less supply of water resources only threaten those who are in unfavorable conditions. Therefore, the improvement of bilateral relations through continual dialogue, the constant fair involvement by the World Bank, the revision of the Indus Water Treaty along with environmental and technical changes, and the improvement of irrigation system by Pakistan are suggested in this paper. India’s and Pakistan’s water experts estimate that both countries are expected to face considerable water shortage by the year 2050 (Arab News, 2014). The practical resolutions should be applied immediately to the both countries. Besides the four suggestions described above, another recommendation is that the Indian and Pakistan’s government collaborate to establish water research institutions for the Indus River. These water research institutions can contribute to preventing water shortage and finding out alternative water management methods which benefit the both countries. Also, these institutions can help to increase awareness of current situations and causes of water shortages among people and educate them in order to implement effective water management in the field.

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