Abstract A problem of poverty of farmer in North and Northeast region has been discussed since the old time. The direction of government to rice producer is unclear. Since that, the poverty problem could not be solved. Therefore, the discussion of the paper would focus the idea on the direction of rice producer in order to get the highest return and can maintain the competitiveness in world rice market. This paper aims to analyze the future direction of rice producer especially in North and Northeast region. The objective of the paper is focus on increasing farmer revenue in order to reduce poverty by growing a right rice’s strain that give highest return. It mainly centers on premium rice, which is Jasmine rice. Describing constraint of Jasmine rice is provided in paper. Besides, this paper will discuss the effect of Thailand competitiveness, the effect of poverty, problem related to Jasmine rice, government role to tackle the rice problem and direct the way to sustain healthy competitive environment.

The Future Direction of Rice Producer: Jasmine Rice, A Key factor to Reduce Poverty in North and Northeast Region

Chayanee Chaiprasit 5104640205

Introduction

“ Having Thai’s rice will make Thais proud to be Thai and being Thai Thais; no matter where they are…” King Bhumibol speech.

Rice plays an important role in a main dish for world population, especially in Thailand. Therefore, producing rice and other activities related to rice are inevitable relevant to revenue, employment and well being of people within country.

In Thailand rice is consider as a main dish. To grow rice, it requires wide areas and high volume of water. Thailand can produce rice in various qualities, from premium grade to low grade. However, the yield is quite low in each rice fields. Generally, the return of rice is quite low when compare to other alternative rice. In agricultural sector, especially rice sector, it involve with the highest number of farmer’s household and community.

Growing rice area in total (%)

Sign

% of rice growing Growing rice area per total field size (rai) growing rice area

Rice plays a big role in economic function, social function and environmental function. For economic function, it is relevant to production value, export value, employment and investment. Rice plays a key role in social function in nutrition, health, culture and community. Last, environmental function, it plays a role in preserve the soil and water, tourism and reduction in flood crisis. Rice is a strategic crop because it affects overall Thai’s economy. Hence, better management and plan are needed. Rice is also security crop. It related with all Thai’s consumer no matter who they are. As farming rice is the Thai’s traditional lifestyle since the old time, it shows our culture and old time knowledge; hence, rice is an identity crop.

Current situation Even though there is an increase in rice demand in market, Thailand does not get the benefit from that. Countries who get benefit from rising rice’s demand are our competitors who have lower cost of production. However, for quality of rice, we are still far better than them. The external obstruction of our rice in international market is a high price that made us hard to compete in internationally. For internal obstructions is government policy such as price guarantee that force exporter to buy in high price. The policy is work only in short run in increasing revenue to the farmer, but not long run. In long run, it would make our rice could not competitive to others rice exported competitors. Low efficiency in rice production is another internal problem that cannot be ignored.

Future Stand Point There is a conflict between selling low-­‐grade rice and premium rice. If we focus on premium rice such as jasmine rice, we would lose low customer market and medium customer market, which are the big base group of world rice market. Thus, we have to choose to be number one or sell high quality rice, then go to the right direction. From data, the lower grade rice is hard to sell because it was get hit by Vietnam rice that is cheaper compared to ours. For premium rice, Jasmine rice, we still keep the market share because none of countries could produce Jasmine rice. The uniqueness of taste, texture, and smell is a key to be leader in premium rice.

This paper aims to analyze the future direction of rice producer especially in North and Northeast region. The objective of this paper is focus on increasing farmer revenue in order to reduce poverty by growing a right rice’s strain that give highest return. It mainly focuses on premium rice, which is Jasmine rice. Describing constraint of Jasmine rice is provided in paper. Besides, this paper will discuss the effect of Thailand competitiveness, the effect of poverty, problem related to Jasmine rice, government role to tackle the rice problem and direct the way to sustain healthy competitive environment. Such activities will be discussed respectively. Finally, the last topic is the conclusion of future direction of rice producer in North and Northeast region.

Effect on Thailand’s Competitiveness Thailand is one of the big players in exporting rice. Now we are the only one country that can produce and export a signature Jasmine rice. Thai jasmine rice is the most widely known quality rice, whose fragrance, soft texture, and taste are unique. Our jasmine rice is favored in domestic and export market. Thailand trading partners included The United State of America, Canada, Asian countries such as China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and some in European, Oceania and African market such as Ivory Coast, etc. USA is the most important trading partner for Jasmine rice since it gains the highest share of our exporting rice, as shown in the figure below.

Proportion of Thai Exported Jasmine rice

to the important trading partner in 2007

Source: Custom Department

Source: Business Research Institute, KKU

From data above, the demand of Jasmine rice in US is increase steadily because the trend of eating jasmine rice tends to increase and the price of Jasmine rice is still low compared to other fragrance rice produced in US. The target customers of our rice in US are Thai’s restaurant, and Asian people who study or work in US. USA import Thai rice up to 75% and Jasmine rice counted up to 70% from total rice imported from US. From now on, the following countries below are the analyzed on competitiveness of our rice market. USA Now USA becomes the significant competitor of our rice export. Since the success of the American researcher who developed a new strain of Jasmine rice called Jazzmen to thrive under U.S. climatic conditions, it had led to an expectation that US may become a major competitor against Thai rice export in the future. It is expected that Thailand might lose its export markets for jasmine rice in the US and Asia if the US was more competitive in its jasmine rice in terms of lower production cost, but comparable quality. Another issue is that Thai farmers are concerned about the negative impact on them if the American researcher succeeds in filing a patent on Jasmine rice. If the American researcher wins a patent on jasmine rice, the US could monopolize the market. It could file lawsuit against importers or sellers of Jasmine rice, or could ask the court to seize or deny entry to the Thai strain. The

impact of the US’s success in developing the new strain of Jasmine rice are as follows: Thailand might not be able to export jasmine rice to the US market, the US’s jasmine rice would gain in the Thai export markets, prices of jasmine rice are likely to decline Quantity of Rice production in New Asian Countries Burma Laos Growing year Vietnam Cambodia 2547/48 36,148.90 4,170.96 22,770.20 1,976 2548/49 35,832.90 5,986.18 24,360.90 2,082.10

2549/50 35,849.50 6,264.12 27,245.80 2,161.40 2550/51 35,942.70 6,727.13 30,435 2,193.40 2551/52 39,010 7,175.47 29,856 2,743.70 2552/53 39,600 7,585.87 32,000 2,870

Source: CEIC

Vietnam Vietnam is the member of new Asian countries that included Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam. All of these countries are now continuously grabbing our rice market share. Vietnam uses a penetration price tactic to steal our rice market share and now it is trying to steal our fragrance rice market share. From statistic, exporting of fragrance rice from Vietnam increase up to 60% and white rice up to 26%. The returning to market of Vietnam’ s fragrance rice is threat to our Jasmine rice. The issue that Thai rice exporter have to concerned are followed: -­‐ Since Vietnam faced the smuggle rice imported from Cambodia, Vietnam’s producer could buy the paddy rice in Cambodia for export not less than 2 million tons. This made Vietnam has more rice to export to compete to Thai. By this, Vietnam would import rice from Cambodia to consume within country and export rice produced within country. -­‐ Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development or MARD in Vietnam supports their farmer to produce rice that generates higher productivity per acre and high quality. -­‐ Vietnam would dominate in Asian market, which we were dominated before, and then Middle East, Europe, US, and Oceania. Cambodia Cambodia used to be the big rice producer and exporter in Indo-­‐ China market; however, it was destroyed in the Indo-­‐ China war. The main problem that limited Cambodia from expanding the productivity and exporting are first, lack of funds. Second, lack of standardize mill. Last, limited in basic transportation. However, this problem has been solved. There are investor from China and from Middle East such as Kuwait and Kata who come to invest in the irrigation system and transportation in Cambodia. From this, it can be expected that the production of rice in Cambodia would increase and also an export. Also, the goal of Cambodia’s government is to increase the rice produced within country.

Burma Burma’s government goal is to be top 3 the exporters of the world. To accomplish the goal, the government has reformed rice business and intervenes in rice market. The government is setting up Myanmar Rice Industry Association or MRIA to improve the production of rice to compete with Thailand and Vietnam. Now Burma focus on exporting to Africa’s countries such as South Africa, Kana, Ivory Coast, Egypt and Cameroon which are also the countries that we export our rice to.

Laos Lao’ rice strain research institute cooperated with Thai’s rice strain research institute have been developing new strain of fragrance rice. Besides, the IRR or International Research Institute in Philippines helps Laos in order to improving rice strain and rice produced method. Fragrance rice could be new product that helps Laos to be a successful rice exporter. Moreover, Laos’ government has announced the policy that it will be new rice exporter in Asia. Therefore, our rice also jasmine rice would be affected from increasing in exporting rice from Laos.

China Now a day, China is the biggest rice importer from Thailand. Nevertheless, China widely starts growing good quality rice and develops rice strain, which is similar to jasmine rice. From new rice trend in China, it is a high chance that China would reduce the import of Thai’s rice and might step up to be a competitor in rice export in near future. Even in short run, China is our good trading partner especially Jasmine rice. However, China has capability to expand the growing rice area in order to increase production of rice and capability to improve the rice strain that can increase production per rai. Now China has developed the new rice strain called Super Rice, which yield the productivity up to 2000 kg/rai. Also, in average, Chinese consume rice lesser than in the past. Therefore, in the future, Chinese might be our significant competitor. In addition, there is an institution is China that research and develop a good strain rice which will make the farmer turn to grow a good strain rice which will give the farmer higher return compared to traditional rice strain. Since the good strain rice get the higher demand from abroad, the biggest impact of developing good rice strain in China would be in following: -­‐ China would reduce import of rice from Thailand -­‐ Jasmine rice farmer and exporter would get effect from reducing demand of Jasmine rice -­‐ Our good rice strain market share would reduce due to an increase in player in market.

Effect on Thailand’s Poverty Rice is the most important economy plant in Thailand. We are not only consuming it within country, but also export it. For every year, we average export rice more than 5 million tons, which is the highest volume in the world.

According to Office of Agricultural Economics in 2010, Thailand has agricultural areas 57.044 million rai or 79%. Rice product this year is 32.116million tons. In the same year, Thailand has exported rice around 9.05 million tons, which gain the value around 5345 million US dollars. We export rice in different categories: 35% of Parboiled rice, 34% of White rice, 26% of Jasmine rice and 5% of other rice. If we compared the value of export by comparing type of rice, Jasmine rice has the highest export value, 37%. Poverty incident; Despite Thailand having been successful in lowering the national incident of poverty, significant pockets of subnational poverty remain.

Household socioeconomics survey shows that the incident of poverty has continuously declined from around 33.8% in 1988 to 9% in 2008. The poverty rate of 9% is relatively low compared to other middle-­‐income countries. Nonetheless, the aggregate poverty differences in the incident of poverty across subnational regions and demographic groups as shown in figure below.

From figure above, the poverty incidence in the northeast region remains relatively high. Around 40% of Thailand’s poor reside in the northeast region. North is another region that has high poverty rate second from Northeast. The significant common factor between Northeast and North is that both regions are agricultural region. They are the major rice producer in the country. Moreover, difference in regional per capita incomes is the key determinant of poverty and inters regional income inequality in Thailand. To the extent, high rate of poverty are recorded in low per capita income regions of the Northeast, and to a lesser extent the North regions as shown below.

Poverty Rate and Per Capita Incomes-­‐ Subnational Comparison

The poor are overrepresented in the agricultural sector. Low-­‐income families and poor families are heavily concentrated in agriculture, with almost half of the poor engaged in the agricultural sector. And around 90% of the poor reside in rural areas. As mention above, Northeast and North are the regions that has high poverty rate compared to other regions. Both region mainly do agriculture especially rice. To reduce poverty rate in Northeast and North region, increasing household income in agricultural product is needed. Northeast and North regions is the major jasmine rice producer in Thailand

From data above, it shows the cost of production of Jasmine rice, price and return. Even though the cost of production is relative high for Jasmine rice, but the return form production is highly different from other kinds of rice. As in 2543/44, the return from in season rice field is 0.16, but Jasmine rice is 2.01. Therefore, the high in production cost is compensated by huge return. So, Jasmine rice is another way to increase income for farmer. According to appendix, table 2 and its graph, price of jasmine rice that is higher than other rice in market. Price of jasmine rice is about 1.4 times white rice in Dec 28, 2011. In domestic market, price of jasmine rice is the highest one followed by fragrance rice and white rice. The price of jasmine rice is not only high in domestic market, but also foreign market. Since jasmine rice is the most widely known quality rice, whose fragrance, soft texture, and taste are unique, there is a high demand in foreign market. As Jasmine rice can produce only within Thailand, the price elasticity is kind

of inelastic for this breed. As mention above about the price and inelastic of Jasmine rice, we can conclude that Jasmine is one of Thai’s premium product. From table in appendix, table 3, it shows the value of export of Jasmine rice compared to other rice. From 2001 to 2011, price of Jasmine rice has been increasing year by year; however, the demand from abroad does not low as in the law of demand. The data show that even the price of Jasmine rice increase, the demand still increases also and does not show a sign to decrease. We can draw the assumption that Jasmine rice is the premium product that when price change, it does not affect the quantity of demand much. Moreover, the value of export in 2011 of Jasmine rice is 1/3 of value of export overall rice exported in the same year. The surprising is that the quantity of Jasmine rice export is only 1/5 of overall rice export. Therefore, we can conclude that even small portion of Jasmine rice can generate large amount of money in our total rice exported revenue.

According to the fact that Jasmine rice can grow only in some part of country, especially in Northeast and North region of Thailand, as seen in appendix table 1. Besides, from research paper of Aree Chuamuengpan(2536), it said the cost of producing Jasmine rice is varying in different region. In general, farmer in North region has higher cost in cultivating Jasmine rice compared to Northeast region. This is might due to the geographical advantage in northeast region. The cost of growing Jasmine rice is not very different from growing other kind of rice, but it require more time to take care them. we should use that geographical advantage to turn dry land into gold. Growing Jasmine rice might be a solution in increasing income for farmers compared to growing other kind of rice in Northeast and North region. To reduce the poverty rate in Northeast and North region of Thailand, the government should support farmers in both North and Northeast region to produce Jasmine rice because when we compared the price of Jasmine rice to other rice, Jasmine rice will give them a better return. However, government should control the amount of supply also. If government let the supply of Jasmine rice exceed the demand from market, price of Jasmine rice would fall. And then it will turn to hurt our domestic farmer. In addition, as a famous of country of origin of Jasmine rice and the inelastic price, it made the Jasmine rice has bright future in foreign market. Also, now most countries face the natural disaster that destroyed their agricultural area. Thus, they will increase in volume of importing rice. The fluctuation in weather condition is also a factor that reduces the quantity of rice produced. Reducing in rice quantity force our Thai rice to increase and therefore, the benefit will fall to our rice exporter and then farmer. Hence, Jasmine rice is another solution to reduce poverty in North and Northeast region.

Constraint Jasmine rice gives the yield only 30-­‐40 bucket/ rai. Not just the small productivity per rai, it can grow only in some part of countries. Also, Jasmine rice requires high quantity of water in each rice field. When compared Jasmine rice to Thai Pratumthani fragrance rice, Thai Pratumthaini fragrance rice give more productivity than Jasmine rice. It gives the yield around 80-­‐100 bucket/rai. Also, it can be grown many times in a year.

Problem Rice’s price fluctuation is the problem that cannot be ignored. Since rice is consume by people around the world and could be processed to various kind of food, fluctuation in price affects every sector in economy whether direct or indirect way. Consumer, farmer, rice exporter are all got affect by the price change. It affects on purchasing power of consumer, incentive to grow rice, and competition in market. Fluctuation in rice’s price is come from many factors: • Cultivating rice depend on weather condition and environment • Rice market is small • Rice market has small player of producer and exporter • International rice’s market is divided into type and quality of rice. Another problem that involved both Jasmine rice and other rice’s breed is the efficiency in rice production. From the report of FAO, it found that average rice production in Thailand is only 385.4 kg/rai, while an average rice production in the world is 600.6 kg/rai. Average rice production in Asia is 613 kg/rai and in China is 974.4 kg/rai. Besides, another indicator that remind us to improve the efficiency in production is that the average production per rai in our country lower than our competitor countries such as Vietnam, Burma, Indonesia and new competitor such as China and India. Lowering in production per rai is also mean the cost of production in our country is higher than in others. However, the reason that we can currently export Jasmine in a large quantity is because none of countries can produce rice that has same quality as ours. For Jasmine rice, price is also a significant issue for jasmine rice. Lowering in Jasmine rice’s price is the problem that we should concern. There are many reasons explaining why the price is low: • Pathumthani Rice’s Problem, since Pathumthani Fragrance Rice is similar to Jasmine rice, there is an arguing that if government supports farmers to grow Pathumthani rice, it would share the Jasmine rice’s market share. As a consequent, it would decrease Jasmine rice’s price • Cutting price and hoarding Jasmine rice’s problem, there are cutting price competition in market among the exporter. Also, the rice seller blend white rice with jasmine rice in order to cut the cost and then sell in a lower price. In addition, there is a hoarding of jasmine rice among big rice exporters in order to

make the price fall. When foreign importers know that we have large amount of stock, they depress the buying’s price and then it turn out that jasmine price within country is lower. However, at the present, when comparing our rice price to other rice-­‐ exporting competitor, it turns out that our price is relatively higher than others: Vietnam, Laos, etc. This is might due to policy from government such as price guarantee scheme and rice pledge. Since our rice’s price is higher than Vietnam’s price, it made consumer shift to Vietnam’s rice. From that, it shows that the price is the major factor in changing consumer behavior. To extent, it changes consumer to consume low graded rice. Hardly access to reach bank loan, new technology and updated information is another important problem that obstruct our farmer to adjust to changing environment. In the near future, successful in developing Jazzman rice in US will affect Jasmine rice trading in following issues: • Thai cannot export our Jasmine rice to US market. Since Jazzman rice is similar to our Jasmine rice, US will substitute our rice to Jazzman rice. • Jazzman rice will fight over our rice export market share • Jasmine rice’s price tends to decrease • Infringe patent right problem in exporting Jasmine rice, if US gets the patent right in Jasmine breed, they have right to monopolize growing and selling Jasmine rice. Therefore, Thai farmer would not be able to farm the jasmine rice and may be have to change the occupation. It destroyed our tradition style.

Government Role to tackle rice problem and sustain healthy competitive environment

Since many Asian countries expand rice productivity and will be a new competitor in rice-­‐exported market, it causes change in consumer preference and structure of rice’s market. Therefore, it forces our country to adjudge and handle the change in this environment. Of course, both government and private sector have an important role to respond to the changes. Even though, there is a high demand of rice in world market, which because Asian’s labors move across countries that make demand in consuming rice increase, the rice exporter’s countries is also increase. Many countries turn to grow rice in order to secure food in country and some of them grow rice that have high productivity per rai to substitute import. Also many countries increase their productivity that makes them to be a new rice competitor.

For the production, it is hard for small farmer to adjust to the change in environment. This is because they cannot reach to money market, new technology and updated information. Thus, government should support farmer to get into group to improve the efficiency of production and to reduce cost of production. For example, farmers get together to farm and cultivate rice at the same time in a huge field. It makes them have a capacity to hire tractors, buy factor of productions, reach to money market and receive the assistant from government. Besides, government has to manage the land for rice field and develop the irrigation system to sufficient in growing rice.

For the export market, grouping exporter among Asian countries is hard because the monopoly power to set the price is not the similar to OPEC. Therefore, there is still high competition in rice-­‐exported market. Thailand should retain its strong point: exporting quality rice, and exporting premium rice such as Jasmine rice. Even though, there are many rice breed in the market, but the quality of rice is not good as ours, Jasmine rice. In addition, government should communicate to rice’s importer to notice the point of different of our rice. As mention above on the rice problem, First, Phatumthani rice is similar to Jasmine rice; it would make consumer and rice importer misunderstand that theses 2 breeds are the same. To solve this problem, government should clearly differentiated these 2 rice markets and appoint the launching date to reduce the overlapping products. Besides, government should explain to consumer and foreign importer to understand the different between Jasmine rice and Phatumthani rice in term of fragrance, taste and price. Second, Government should not intervene the paddy rice price, especially jasmine rice at the period before new growing season. If government intervenes in price, the benefit would not fall to the farmer. This because most of rice farmer sell their rice to merchant in the period before new growing season start. So the benefit will go to merchant, not farmer. The reason that government intervene rice market are: enhancing revenue equality in both urban and rural, making farmer income into satisfy level, and increasing ability of consumer to consume rice under reasonable price.

Long run solution for rice problem; First, Solve the rice-­‐mixing problem, some of seller mixed Jasmine rice with other kind of rice such as Chainat 1, which quality of rice is totally different from Jasmine rice. The result of rice mixing is that it reduces the satisfaction of foreign customer; therefore, it reduces demand for jasmine rice in foreign market. Since the past, government has been trying to solve rice-­‐mixing problem by -­‐ Setting standard for Jasmine rice within country -­‐ Setting standard in exporting of Jasmine rice -­‐ Improving efficiency in producing Jasmine rice In order to improve the efficiency in producing rice, government should carry out the long run plan as followed: -­‐ Increasing yield per rai -­‐ Switching to grow good breed rice; we cannot compete our medium to low quality rice in international market because price in competitor countries is very low compared to ours. Thus, government should focus on producing high quality rice such as Jasmine rice. -­‐ Enhancing producing processed rice product such as flour, noodles and biscuit. This is not only reducing the export competition, but also add value to product too. -­‐ Promote growing organic rice. The organic rice is highly demanded in developed countries and the competition on this product is not high. And the price of organic rice is higher than traditional non-­‐organic rice. Hence, government should promote farmer to grow organic rice. -­‐ Promote growing short grain rice in order to export to Japan market; in order to success in Japan rice market, Thailand should export short grain rice. If we export short grain rice, we would have comparative advantage to US, which is the big exporter to Japan. The cost of export is lower than US due to the shorter distance transportation. As mention above about Jazzmen rice, which was developed from Jasmine rice in order to grow in US weather and environment. If US have been successful in developing this kind of rice and get the patent, our domestic farmer would face a tremendous change in the way of life. We would lose our traditional occupation. Hence, government should conduct diplomatic negotiation in order to oppose this research. Government has to prove that the Jazzmen rice breed is manipulated from Jasmine rice. By doing that, it violates Plant Protection Act. Not just conduct diplomatic negotiation, government should advertise Jasmine rice to the world. With public relation and various advertising means, it would made Jasmine rice known to foreign countries and it help our exporter expand the rice market before US. Promoting Jasmine rice through advertising would create confident to foreign customer. Lastly, private sector could play a role in solving problems and set policies for Thai rice starting with production on through to marketing aspects. The private sector could help in creating “Thai Rice” logo or trademark, assist or conduct research and development on rice strain-­‐ in competition with the U.S and other competitor countries, such as Vietnam and Australia that have developed their rice strains very quickly.

Conclusion

Due to decrease in competitiveness of Thailand’s rice export in world market since Thailand lacks of efficiency in production and conduct misleading policy that lead to high cost production. Hardly access to bank loan, new technology and updated information is another problem for farmer in Thai’s rice market. This allows competitors to catch up and produce similar rice. Decreasing in competitiveness in rice-­‐exported market is also the result of increase in rice production in competitor’s countries such as Vietnams, Laos, etc. The developed rice breed in China, US, and India is also an indicator to reduce our rice share in world’s rice market. Moreover, developing new rice breed allow competitor a higher yield and lower cost. With high quality rice, unique fragrance, soft texture and unique taste, Jasmine rice is a solution. Jasmine rice can only produce within Thailand; therefore, the competitiveness is low in the premium rice market. Not just low competitiveness, price of Jasmine rice is also inelastic.

Besides, benefit of growing Jasmine rice is also reducing poverty level in Northeast and North areas, which is the majority region of the poor. With high price of premium rice of Jasmine rice and inelastic of customer to price change, it lead to higher household income. The extra money allows the poor to spend on both necessary and unnecessary things to improve their quality of living. As mentioned, higher income from selling Jasmine rice will reduce poverty of farmer in North and Northeast region. To achieve in lowering poverty and increase competitive power in world rice market, both government and private sector play a key role. Government has to conduct both short run and long run plan to achieve goal. Pleasant marketing is required from private sector. Furthermore, with higher exported revenue from Jasmine rice, it drives economic growth of Thailand.

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Appendix Table 1

Table 2

30/11/11 7/12/11 14/12/11 21/12/11 28/12/11

Table 3

มูลค่า (ล้านเหรียญดล. สหรัฐฯ) 1,800

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2550

ข้าวจ้าวหอมมะลิไทย ข้าวนึ1ง

ข้าวจ้าวหอมขาวอื1นๆ 100%
2551 2552 2553

ป5

4 4

(ตารางที 3) (ตารางที่่ ่ 3) (ตารางที 3)

พื้นที ก็บเกี่ยว พื้นที่เ่เ่เก็บเกี่ยว พื้นที ก็บเกี่ยว (ลานไร) (ลานไร)) (ลานไร ภูมิภาค/ประเทศ มิภาค/ประเทศ ภู มิภาค/ประเทศ 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ ภู 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ 2553 2554 2555 2553 2554 2555 2553 2554 2555

ผลผลิตขาวเปลือกเฉลี่ย ผลผลิตขาวเปลือกเฉลี่ย (กิโลกรัมตอไร (กิโลกรัมตอไร)) 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ 2553 2554 2555 2553 2554 2555

974.94 988.19 999.56 675 685 686 440.08 451.58 โลก 974.94 988.19 999.56 675 685 686 440.08 451.58 974.94 988.19 999.56 โลก โลก 7.88 9.13 7.56 1,270 1,206 1,261 7.13 7.55 สหรัฐอเมริกา 7.56 7.55 7.88 9.13 7.56 1,270 1,206 1,261 7.13 สหรัฐฐอเมริกาา 7.88 9.13 สหรั อเมริก ประเทศอื่น ๆ 967.06 979.06 982.00 670 680 682 432.94 444.02 ประเทศอื่น ๆ 967.06 979.06 982.00 670 680 682 432.94 444.02 ประเทศอื่น ๆ 967.06 979.06 982.00 เอเซีย เอเซีย เอเซีย ตะวันออก ตะวันออก ตะวันออก 185.19 186.38 187.50 1,054 1,067 1,067 136.57 139.30 จีน 185.19 186.38 187.50 185.19 186.38 187.50 1,054 1,067 1,067 136.57 139.30 ีน จจีน

ผลผลิตรวม ผลผลิตรวม เปลี่ยนแปลง เปลี่ยนแปลง จากปที่แลว 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ จากปที่แลว 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ ลานตัน / ลานตัน / 2553 2554 2555 2553 2554 2555 รอยละ รอยละ
457.86 457.86 6.77 6.77 451.09 451.09

ผลผลิตรวม ผลผลิตรวม (ลานตันขา วสาร) านตันขา (ล วสาร)

6.28 1.39 6.28 1.39 -0.78 -10.37 -0.78 -10.37 7.06 1.59 7.06 1.59

เกาหลี หนือ เกาหลี หนือ เกาหลีเเเหนือ เอเซียใต เอเซียใต เอเซียใต อินเดีย อินเดีย อินเดีย

ญี่ปุน ญี่ปุน ญี่ปุน เกาหลีใใต เกาหลี ต เกาหลีใต

10.13 10.13 10.13 5.75 5.75 5.75 3.69 3.69 3.69 261.56 261.56 261.56 72.50 72.50 72.50 17.50 17.50 17.50

10.19 10.19 10.19 5.56 5.56 5.56 3.63 3.63 3.63

10.00 10.00 10.00 5.38 5.38 5.38 3.63 3.63 3.63

1,043 1,042 1,043 1,042 1,126 1,042 1,126 1,042 803 678 803 678 510 510 642 642 582 582 515 515 669 669 538 538

1,054 1,054 1,088 1,088 763 763 523 523 661 661 582 582

7.71 7.71 4.92 4.92 1.91 1.91 89.09 89.09 31.00 31.00 6.80 6.80

140.00 140.00 7.72 7.68 7.72 7.68 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 1.60 1.80 1.60 1.80

0.70 0.50 0.70 0.50 -0.04 -0.52 -0.04 -0.52 0.01 0.12 0.12 0.01 0.20 12.50 0.20 12.50 2.50 2.50 0.10 0.10 2.10 2.10 2.65 2.65 0.30 0.30 44.68 44.68

บังคลาเทศ บั คลาเทศ บังงคลาเทศ ปากีสถาน ปากีสถาน ปากีสถาน เอเซียตะวันออก เอเซียตะวันออก เอเซียตะวันออก เฉียงใต เฉียงใต เฉียงใต อินโดนี ซีย อินโดนี ซีย อินโดนีเเเซีย เวียยดนาม เวี ดนาม เวียดนาม ไทย ไทย ไทย พมาา พม พมา ฟลิปปนส ฟลิปปนส ฟลิปปนส กัมพูชา กัมพูช กัมพูชาา ลาว ลาว ลาว มาเลเซีย มาเลเซีย มาเลเซีย

275.00 278.13 275.00 278.13 275.00 278.13 73.75 75.00 73.75 75.00 75.00 73.75 13.13 17.50 13.13 17.50 17.50 13.13

94.50 97.00 94.50 97.00 32.90 33.00 32.90 33.00 4.70 6.80 4.70 6.80

75.63 75.63 75.63 46.38 46.38 46.38 68.38 68.38 68.38 43.75 43.75 43.75 27.56 27.56 27.56 16.75 16.75 16.75 5.56 5.56 5.56 4.19 4.19 4.19

75.69 75.69 75.69 46.50 46.50 46.50 66.69 66.69 66.69 43.75 43.75 43.75 27.81 27.81 27.81 17.13 17.13 17.13 5.44 5.44 5.44 4.19 4.19 4.19

75.94 75.94 75.94 46.50 46.50 46.50 68.13 68.13 68.13 43.75 43.75 43.75 28.00 28.00 28.00 17.38 17.38 17.38 5.56 5.56 5.56 4.19 4.19 4.19

อเมริกาใต อเมริกาใต อเมริกาใต บราซิล บราซิล บราซิล เปรู มิภาค/ ภู เปรู เปรู ประเทศ แอฟริกา แอฟริกา
แอฟริกา
ไนจีเรีย ไนจี รีย ไนจีเเรีย

757 768 757 768 862 869 862 869 450 461 450 461 416 424 416 424 563 590 563 590 454 464 454 464 578 552 578 552 578 552 594 594 594 594 594 5 594

774 774 875 875 461 461 434 434 613 613 475 475 598 598 598 598 598 598

36.37 36.37 24.99* 24.99* 20.26 20.26 10.55 10.55 9.77 9.77 4.78 4.78 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.62 1.62 1.62

36.90 36.90 25.25 25.25 20.26 20.26 10.75 10.75 10.35 10.35 5.02 5.02 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.61 1.61 1.61

37.60 37.60 25.43 25.43 20.75 20.75 11.00 11.00 10.80 10.80 5.20 5.20 5.20 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.63 1.63 1.63

0.70 1.90 0.70 1.90 0.18 0.71 0.18 0.71 0.49 2.41 0.49 2.41 0.25 2.33 0.25 2.33 0.45 4.35 0.45 4.35 0.18 3.59 0.18 3.59 0.18 3.59 0.20 11.11 0.20 11.11 0.20 11.11 0.02 1.24 0.02 1.24 0.02 1.24

จากปที่แลว 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ 2552/ 2553/ 2554/ ลานตัน / 2553 2554 2555 2553 2554 2555 2553 2554 2555 0.03 1.12 13.13 13.44 13.56 330 331 331 2.60 2.67 2.70 0.03รอยละ 2.70 13.13 13.44 13.56 13.56 330 331 331 2.60 2.67 13.13 13.44 330 331 331 2.60 2.67 2.70 0.03 1.12 1.12
8.63 8.63 8.63 488 557 523 2.69 3.06 2.88 -0.18

17.31 พื้น17.94 ่ยว 16.88 17.31 ที่เก็บเกี 16.88 17.94 16.88 17.31 17.94 (ลานไร) 2.56 2.44 2.19 2.56 2.44 2.19 2.56 2.44 2.19

1,184 1,163 1,184 1,163 1,184 1,163

ผลผลิตขา776 อกเฉลี่ย วเปลื 688 651 688 651 776 651 776 688 (กิโลกรัมตอไร)

1,114 1,114 1,114

7.66 9.45 7.90 7.66 ผลผลิตรวม 7.90 9.45 7.66 9.45 7.90 (ลานตันขาวสาร) 2.09 1.96 1.68 2.09 1.96 2.09 1.96 1.68 1.68

ผลผลิ -1.55 -16.40 -1.55 ตรวม -1.55 -16.40 -16.40 เปลี่ยนแปลง -0.28 -14.15 -0.28 -14.15 -0.28 -14.15

มาดากัสการ สหภาพยุโรป อิตาลี สเปน อียิปต อิหราน อื่น ๆ ที่มา :

-5.94

1.50 0.75 4.19 3.38 70.75

1.56 0.75 2.81 3.38 72.75

1.50 0.75 2.81 3.38 77.50

1,078 1,027 1,579 672 477

1,005 1,018 1,696 674 494

1,043 1,022 1,696 674 498

0.98 0.54 4.30 1.49 21.97

0.95 0.54 3.10 1.50 23.46

0.97 0.55 3.10 1.50 24.44

0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.98

2.11 0.37 0.00 0.00 4.17

Foreign Agricultural Service, กระทรวงเกษตร สหรัฐอเมริกา, พฤษภาคม 2554 หมายเหตุ : ป 2553/54 = ประเมินเบื้องตน ป 2554/55 = พยากรณ

ปการผลิต 2553/54 ผลผลิตขาวสารรวมทั่วโลกมีจํานวน 451.577 ลานตัน ประเทศที่มีผลผลิต รวมมากที่สุด คือ จีน (รอยละ 30.85) รองลงมาไดแก อินเดีย (รอยละ 20.93) อินโดนีเซีย (รอยละ 8.17) บังคลาเทศ (รอยละ 7.29) เวียตนาม (รอยละ 5.59) ไทย (รอยละ 4.49) พมา (ร อยละ 2.38) และ ฟลิปปนส (รอยละ 2.29) ตามลําดับ ปการผลิ ต 2554/55 กระทรวงเกษตร สหรั ฐ อเมริกา พยากรณ ณ เดือ นพฤษภาคม 2554 วาผลผลิ ตขาวสารรวมทั่ว โลกจะมีจํานวน 457.858 ลานตัน เพิ่มขึ้นจากปการผลิต 2553/54 จํานวน