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Just in Time

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1. Identificación del Problema Central (PC):
Deficiente capacidad de respuesta ante cambios de la demanda.

2. Hechos que influencian el PC:
2.1. Cambio inesperado de la demanda
2.2. Falta de flexibilidad en los talleres de producción.
2.3. Inadecuada gestión de las relaciones con los clientes.
2.4. Confiar en la tecnología de información.

3. Análisis de cada uno de los hechos.
3.1. Cambio inesperado de la demanda.- Este hecho desestabiliza el programa de producción en marcha y obliga a Santa Claus (Santa) a redefinirla en los talleres.
3.2. Falta de flexibilidad.- Los talleres están acondicionados para producir juguetes tradicionales y también juguetes de moda, pero si hay un cambio en la demanda de algunos de ellos o quieren producir un nuevo juguete no pueden acondicionar su capacidad existente sin antes incurrir en sobrecostos de inventarios en tránsito, productos terminados, horas extras.
3.3. Si bien es cierto Santa conoce lo que cada niño desea, la gestión de relaciones con los clientes (niños) no es óptima ya que la información que recoge de los gustos de cada niño no es confiable y esto puede ayudar a generar pronósticos errados de demanda.
3.4. Santa cuenta con sofisticados software de planificación pero han errado en sus pronósticos de demanda y ello debido a que la demanda es muy variable para este tipo de cliente, los Niños, conllevando a una mala planificación de capacidad de producción en los talleres.

4. Alternativas de Solución.
Hemos identificado 3 alternativas de solución
4.1. Planificación Óptima de la demanda.- Para evitar que se vuelva a repetir este problema de falta de respuesta ante cambios en la demanda lo que debe hacer Santa es elaborar un pronóstico de la demanda de los productos en función al valor que aportan a la empresa, es muy importante que el pronóstico tenga un margen de error bajo y dicho margen debe permitirles reaccionar ante cambios inesperados de la demanda. Con datos de pronósticos confiables, Santa puede hacer la planificación de la capacidad requerida del taller (es). Los meses en que los talleres no tienen la presión de producción debería dedicarse a producir los artículos que ya tienen historial de entrega y que saben que dicha Navidad serán requeridos por los niños, esto aliviará la falta de capacidad ante repunte de demandas inesperadas en los meses críticos.
4.2. Elaboración de planes de contingencia ante cualquier cambio de variables que afectan la producción.- Si la demanda sobrepasa la capacidad requerida, a pesar de tener una planificación con bajo margen de error, es necesario que Santa prevea tener una o más líneas o talleres de producción flexible, es decir que puedan acondicionarse de inmediato al cambio de producción, una buena práctica sería implementar sistemas modulares de producción, donde se formen grupos de máquina por tipo de piezas comunes de juguetes y otro grupo para nuevas matrices o modelos.
4.3. Parar la producción del Miauadorrr.- Es imprescindible que Santa haga esto ya que de no hacerlo incurrirá en sobrecostos de inventarios, de mano de obra y necesariamente tendrá que contratar los servicios de un tercero para poder terminar la fabricación de los juguetes cuya demanda se incrementaron (aquí se debe minimizar el costo de outsourcing, tal vez le sea beneficioso), de este modo cumplirá con Mantener la ilusión de los niños con una entrega a tiempo cada 25 de diciembre.

5. Solución al Problema Central.
Consideramos que la mejor alternativa para Santa es establecer sistemas modulares de producción, esto le permitirá reaccionar ante cambios inesperados de la demanda y le permitirá tener talleres especializados de fabricación (piezas comunes y no comunes), pero esto no va a funcionar sin antes tener una planificación confiable en base a pronósticos con bajo margen de error, ahora también es muy importante que la gestión de la relación con el cliente (niños) permita a Santa obtener una retroalimentación más realista de sus requerimientos.

6. Implementación de la Solución.
Pasos:
a. Hacer una clasificación ABC de los juguetes, está clasificación estará en función al valor que generen a la cadena de suministro y también al número de pedidos (digamos rotación aunque se trate de sólo un día de entrega).
b. Hacer el pronóstico de la demanda para los juguetes con mínimo margen de error.
c. Ya con el pronóstico Santa debe hacer la Planificación de la demanda, teniendo en cuenta que aquellos juguetes tipo A y B deben ser fabricados con anticipación para tener disponibilidad de capacidad en meses pico para los juguetes nuevos y también para los del tipo C que aportan poco valor y son muchos en volumen, y éstos deben ser fabricados en los sistemas modulares.

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