...Sheet-09 Moving Average Method Example-1: ABC Company has the following manpower data for their health care division for the past six years: |Year |Manpower level/Data | | |(in nos.) | |2003 |500 | |2004 |600 | |2005 |800 | |2006 |1,000 | |2007 |1,100 | |2008 |1,300 | You have been asked to forecast their manpower requirement in 2009 using a 6-period moving average. Answer: F 2009 = (500+600+800+1000+1100+1300) /6 = 5300/ 6 = 883 (Ans:) Weighted Moving Average Method Example-2: |Year |Manpower level/Data | | |(in nos.) | |2003 |500 | |2004 |600 | |2005 |800 | |2006 |1,000 | |2007 |1,100 | |2008 |1,300 | For example, manpower levels of 2003, 2004, 2005 may be less relevant, hence, for these years weights may be assigned...
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...Franklin Exercise 9.3 Moving Averages 20X2-20X4 $18,250,000 / 3 = $6,083,333 Weighted Moving Averages 20X2 $5,500,000 1 $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 2 $12,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 3 $20,250,000 __ ___________ 6 $37,750,000 20X5 $37,750,000 /6 = $6,291,667 Exponential Smoothing NF = LF + a (LD – LF) NF = $6,300,000 + 0.95($6,750,000 - $6,300,000) = $6,300,000 + 0.95(45,000) = $6,300,000 + (42,750) = $6,342,750 Exercise 9.3 Moving Averages 20X2-20X4 $41,750,000 / 3 = $13,916,667 Weighted Moving Averages 20X2 $14,250,000 1 $14,250,000 20X3 $14,000,000 2 $28,000,000 20X4 $13,500,000 3 $40,500,000 __ ___________ 6 $82,750,000 20X5 $82,750,000/6 = $13,791,667 Exponential Smoothing NF = $13,000,000 + 0.95($13,500,000 - $13,000,000) = $13,000,000 + 0.95(500,000) = $13,000,000 + (475,000) = $13,475,000 Moving averages are the easiest to do without a computer and is fast, but less accurate. Add the three most recent years, and divide by three. Weighted moving averages are simple, but require more time. The most recent year gets the highest weight. The oldest data is one and one multiplies the total. The next year is two, and two multiplies the total. The most current data weight is three, and multiplied by three. Finally, use the total of all years, and dived by the total weight for the weight moving average. The hardest to understand...
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...leader. A regression analysis was performed using sales as the selected variable for the strong positive relationship to advertising budget. The correlation coefficient of sales with the advertising budget is 0.96, which was higher than the relationship of competitors advertising budget or retail coverage. Sales with a lower standard error indicate a better predicted forecast. Using the regression equation and expected sales of 2,400 million, the forecasted advertising budget should be set at 162 million. During week two the marketing team was challenged to predict the market sales for the next year. Denim sales have increased five percent over the past four years and is expected to increase again next year. The team used the weighted moving average with a weight of .9 for the most recent observation to give the lowest mean square error (MSE). The lowest MSE is the best model to predict what sales would be over the next year. The forecasted Denim sales over the next year are 777 million units. With Blues Inc having a six percent share of the Denim market the team recommends a fix production at 47 million units to meet current demand. The final week of analysis was...
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...2006-5 Oklahoma | 47800 | 2007-1 LSU | 46900 | 2007-2 Texas | 50100 | 2007-3 Prairie View A&M | 45900 | 2007-4 Montana | 36300 | 2007-5 Arizona State | 49900 | An important thing to note is that the homecoming game of every season is the second home game (bold), and is always well attended. Also the forth home game always corresponds with a local festival that always draws from attendance (italics). Summary of Forecasting Methods: Below is a table of the forecasting methods. The correlation coefficient, bias, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) are shown. | Correlation | Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | Naïve | -- | 541.38 | 6865.52 | 69,856,200 | .19 | Moving Average (3 periods) |...
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...cost is still an issue with many alternative sources of fuel, according to Chuck Combs, who is the program lead for alternative energy at China Lake and provides the Navy and Marine Corps with technical expertise in solar and fuel cell efforts”. (Hillburn, 2007) Here will be discussed how the alternative fuel automobile company has a first year market forecast of 1000 units by identifying the forecasting model with an explanation of why it is the obvious choice, while during the first three years of operation the automobile company had actual sales of: year one 800 units, year two 1200 units, year three 2000 units and by using a simple three year moving average calculation of the predicted demand for year four with an explanation of reasoning, in addition the sales department expects the growth in year four to closely resemble the average growth experienced in the last two years, with a prediction of the number of units expected in year four along with a discussion on whether or not to recommend this quantity as...
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...___________________ Answer Page for Selected Problems Provide only your final answers (for example, the final numbers, selection, etc.) to the following problems. Remember to show your work and answers for these problems on the problem pages. Example only: the break-even point is 100,000 units as this is the point where the cost of the two options is equal. Below that level we prefer option A and above that we would use option C #1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 1. (22 points) The H&S Motor Company produces small motors at a production cost of $30 per unit. Defective motors can be reworked at a cost of $12 each. The company produces 100 motors per day and averages 80 percent good...
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...merged with Southeast Airlines . . . 3-1 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Year Demand for fertilizer (1,000s of bags) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 9 7 10 8 11 9 15 10 16 11 18 a. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. b. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 3 and a weight of 2 for the second past year and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. c. Which method do you think is best? In this case, the 3 year moving average is the better method as the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is only 3.042 as compared to 3.347 for the weighted moving average method. What it actually means is that each forecast missed the actual value by 3.042 units instead of 3.347 units. d. Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer using any computer software. e. You have now developed three different forecasts. These are a 3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line. Which one would you use? Explain your answer. By observing the MAD in part (d), it can be observed that the value is the smallest among the 3 methods, hence I will choose the trend line as the forecast predicted is more accurate. Moreover the demand for the future can also be...
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...GROUP PROJECT Pasquet Ferdinand Ravera Quentin I- Presentation of the company The company was founded by Walter Chrysler (1875–1940) on June 6, 1925. The headquarters are in Auburn Hills in the Michigan. The brand was at the beginning a premium luxury position competing with the brands Cadillac. Chrysler was the top brand in the portfolio of what was then known as Chrysler Corporation. Chrysler's positioning changed several times over the years. Indeed, The Chrysler brand was originally a premium luxury position competing with Cadillac and Lincoln through the cars Imperial.Then, Chrysler's positioning of the Chrysler brand towards a mid-price brand caused Chrysler to kill the brand DeSoto after 1961.After that, in 1975, Chrysler once again became the top brand, with range of products competing with both luxury and near luxury brands like Buick. During the 1980s the Chrysler brand took on a similar role as Oldsmobile or Mercury by offering entry-level luxury cars of various types and sizes. Before the Fiat's acquisition of a 20% stake in Chrysler in 2009, Chrysler had a discontinued line of cars with economy car and sport cars. This strategy ended when the company was threatened with an imminent bankrupt in 2008. That’s why, in December 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush agreed to a $4 billion bailout for Chrysler and another one of $8.5 billion was also given by the President Barack Obama early in his administration. Chrysler LLC (new company emerged from...
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...Dr. Burns Operations Management PRACTICE EXAM 3 (with answers at the end) This exam consists of 40 multiple choice and 3 discussion questions/problems. The multiple choice questions are worth 40% of the exam grade. The problems are worth 60% of the exam grade. The exam is to be taken closed-book, closed-notes. Formulas are provided on the last page. 1. Aggregate Production Planning (APP) involves all of the following except _________. a. hiring and laying off workers b. subcontracting work out c. building up inventories d. explosion of end-item requirements 2. Which of the following is not an input to the aggregate planning system? a. demand forecasts b. capacity constraints c. strategic objectives d. company policies e. master production schedule 3. Capacity planning is… a. long range planning b. short range planning c. involves facility size, expansion and location decisions d. all of the above e. a and c only 4. In terms of production planning, aggregate production planning produces outputs that are used in the creation of a. a facility expansion plan b. a master production schedule c. an enterprise architecture plan d. all of the above e. a and b only 5. Kaizen is another term for a. continuous improvement. b. JIT. c. visual control. d. defect prevention. 6. Which of the following is an element of lean production? a. flexible resources b. total quality management ...
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...Quiz IF You Want To Purchase A+ Work Then Click The Link Below , Instant Download http://www.hwspeed.com/Devry-GSCM-520-Week-2-Quiz-849803.htm?categoryId=-1 If You Face Any Problem E- Mail Us At JOHNMATE1122@Gmail.Com Page 1 Question 1.1. (TCO 5) In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken down into several components. Which of the following is not considered a component of demand? (Points : 3) Average demand for a period A trend Seasonal elements Past data Autocorrelation Question 2.2. (TCO 5) In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken into several components. Which of the following is considered a component of demand? (Points : 3) Forecast error Autocorrelation Previous demand Consistent demand Repeat demand Question 3.3. (TCO 5) Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique? (Points : 3) Exponential smoothing Weighted moving average Linear regression Historical analogy Market research Question 4.4. (TCO 5) Which of the following forecasting methods uses executive judgment as its primary component for forecasting? (Points : 3) Historical analogy Time series analysis Panel consensus Market research Linear regression Question 5.5. (TCO 5) In business forecasting, what is usually considered...
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...Beyond Technical Analysis Beyond Technical Analysis: How to Develop and Implement a Winning Trading System Tushar S. Chande, PhD John Wiley 61 Sons, Inc. New York • Chichester • Brisbane • Toronto • Singapore • Weinheim This text is printed on acid-free paper. Copyright © 1997 by Tushar S. Chande. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Data Scrambling is a trademark of Tushar S. Chande. TradeStadon, System Writer Plus, and Power Editor are trademarks of Omega Research, Inc. Excel is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. Continuous Contractor is a trademark of TechTools, Inc. Portfolio Analyzer is a trademark of Tom Berry. All rights reserved. Printed simultaneously in Canada. Reproduction or translation of any part of this work beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright holder is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to the Permissions Department of John Wiley & Sons. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publicaton Data: Chande, Tushar S., 1958Beyond technical analysis : how...
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...Operation Strategy: Specifies the means by which operations implements corporate strategy * Corporate strategy: Provides an overall direction and framework for carrying out all the organization’s function (Environmental scanning, core competencies, core processes, and global strategy) * Competitive capabilities: current performance along those dimensions that a process or supply chain actually has * Order Winner: a criterion the customers use to differentiate the services / products of a firm from those of others * Price (low prices), Flexibility (large variety), Quality (in-stock merchandise availability, customer service), Time * Order Qualifier: the minimum level of performance of an order winner that is required for a firm todo business in a market segment. Quality (Products and services. Focuses on quality) Process Strategy * Process Decision: 1) Process Structure (Customer-contact position [services]), 2) Customer Involvement (low involvement, high involvement), 3) Resource Flexibility (Specialized, enlarged), 4) Capital Intensity (low and high automation) * Process Architecture: 1) Job process: low volume, high customized to specific needs of the customers. The process has highly flexible flow, with considerable divergence in production steps (flexible resources. Resources are organized by resource type, but not by product type. Each order is treated as a single unit, a job). Ex: Nike workshop for sponsored athletic shoes 2) Batch process:...
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...000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. For moving averages and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscal years. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, a value of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. For exponential smoothing, assume that the last forecast for fiscal year 20X4 was $6,300,000. You decide on the alpha to be used for exponential smoothing. For time series regression, use the data for all four fiscal years. Which forecast will you use? Why Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses 20X2 $ 5,500,000 20X3 6,000,000 20X4 6,750,000 20X2-X4 6,083,333 20X5 6,083,333 = $2,277,776 3 I followed Rule 3. Older data are less important than more recent data. I decided to only go back three years so I added personnel expenses for 20X2, 20X3, and 20X4 and divided the total sum by three to forecast personnel expenses for 20X5. Weighted Moving Averages Fiscal Year Personnel Expenses Weight ...
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...calculations but zeros are. In entering your data to move from cell to cell in the data-matrix use the Tab key not arrow or enter keys. Features of time series, which might be revealed by examining its graph, with the forecasted values, and the residuals behavior, condition forecasting modeling. Moving Averages: Moving averages rank among the most popular techniques for the preprocessing of time series. They are used to filter random "white noise" from the data, to make the time series smoother or even to emphasize certain informational components contained in the time series. Exponential Smoothing: This is a very popular scheme to produce a smoothed Time Series. Whereas in Moving Averages the past observations are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the observation get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Double Exponential Smoothing is better at handling trends. Triple Exponential Smoothing is better at handling parabola trends. An exponenentially weighted moving average with a smoothing constant a, corresponds roughly to a simple moving average of length (i.e., period) n, where a and n are related by: a = 2/(n+1) OR n = (2 - a)/a....
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...personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for past four fiscal years: 20X1 $5,250,000 20X2 $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 Moving Averages 20X2-X4 $18,250,000 / 3 = $6,083,333 Weighted Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score 20X2 $5,500,000 1 $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 2 $12,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 3 $20,250,000 __ ___________ 6 $37,750,000 20X5 $37,750,000 /6 = $6,291,667 Exponential Smoothing NF = $6,300,000 + 0.95($6,750,000 - $6,300,000) = $6,300,000 + 0.95(45,000) = $6,300,000 + (42,750) = $6,342,750 I would rather use moving averages, weighted moving averages, or exponential smoothing because I can better understand how the formulas and numbers turn out and how you get the answers from them. Even though the Time regression is supposed to be easier you are still putting a lot of faith in a computer. Plus I really had a hard time understanding it. Exercise 9.3 The following data represent total revenues (from all sources) for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four fiscal years: 20X1 $15,000,000 20X2 $14,250,000 20X3 $14,000,000 20X4 $13,500,000 Moving Averages 20X2-X4 $41,750,000 / 3 = $13,916,667 Weighted Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score 20X2 $14,250,000 1 $14,250,000 20X3 $14,000,000 2 $28,000,000 20X4 $13,500,000 3 $40,500,000 __ ...
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