Provider ID_peterjharvey

There are multiple threats to security in Southwest Asia today. Which threat in your opinion poses the greatest danger to regional and international peace and why?

There are many documented reasons why Southwest Asia poses a danger to regional and international peace, and this essay is designed to touch on some of the myriad of problems confronting Southwest Asia at the present time and explain why.
If we look at internationally, Southwest Asia presents U.S. policymakers with some of their most difficult and seemingly intractable foreign policy problems. Regionally, where do you start, some of the region’s problems, for example, the former Maoist insurgency in Nepal and the protracted civil war that raged for decades in Sri Lanka have finally been resolved ( I believe that it must be remembered that although, in the case of the latter, Tamil aspirations for independence could eventually reignite that conflict at any time), the region’s most dangerous problems remain unresolved, when we look at the two major powers of the region India and Pakistan which remain in a state of perpetual conflict, although their current governments have kept nationalistic/religious fervour in their respective countries to a minimum – a situation that could change soon with the election of a Hindu nationalist to be prime minister of India( Narendra Modi).
With both countries possessing nuclear weapons and both countries harbouring considerable numbers of extremists, the potential for the world’s first nuclear war remains focused on the issues that divide India and Pakistan, mainly Hindu versus Muslim sentiments and the future of the region of Kashmir. Southwest Asia, of course, is also where Afghanistan sits, and the situation there does not look good. The government of President Hamid Karzai remains extremely corrupt and inefficient, while the Taliban continues to control significant swaths of the country. Once American troops in Afghanistan are finally removed, or at least seriously decreased in number,(Australia has already left) the potential for a resurgent Taliban militia to retake Kabul is disturbingly high. If that occurs, then not only will the most repressive Islamic movement in the world return to power, but the al Qaeda terrorist network could re-establish itself in Afghanistan’s rugged mountains.
An added dimension to the issue of Afghanistan is the extent to which it has become the centre of so much geopolitical manoeuvring among not only myriad of Afghani factions (for example, Uzbek, Tajik, Hazara and other ethnicities all vying for power against the Pashtun majority), but also among the countries surrounding it. Pakistan views control of Afghanistan as one of its highest priorities; Iran has increased its presence in the west, especially around Herat, and India views it as a potential strategic asset in its confrontations with Pakistan and China. In short, Afghanistan has emerged as the most dangerous potential threat to international stability in the region. (I know as I have been there.) Importantly we must not forget the India-Pakistan nuclear stand-off represents the most dangerous contingency in the event of another war between the two, both governments recognize the risks associated with pushing the other too far, although Pakistan never seems too far from precipitating another crisis like that in Mumbai in November 2008, when terrorists supported by Pakistan’s intelligence service carried out massive attacks in that Indian metropolis.
The greatest single threat emanating from Southwest Asia, then, could be considered to be a nuclear-armed Pakistan continuing to engage in highly provocative activities directed against its larger neighbour. That said, I suppose we mustn’t forget that the continuing threat from al Qaeda is currently more of a problem in Yemen than in Afghanistan. Again importantly other Islamist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba poses the most direct threat to the continental United States. We also must remember that even though Iran is not considered South west Asia it has a long border with Afghanistan and does influence the unrest in Southwest Asia when considering the instability in Afghanistan.
It does appear that with the on-going U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts, focused especially on South & Southwest Asia, still the existence of international terrorist groups and their supporters happen to increase rapidly in the region. And this critical situation of South Asia is globally identified as a threat to both regional political and economic stability. In the present global political scenario, terrorism is a highly controversial issue and holds key significance in the contemporary international politics. In effect, the controversy exists over its nature, causes and consequences with no efforts by the politicians to come to any conclusive opinion on the subject. Notwithstanding this, terrorism is nowadays considered as a threat to global peace and security, especially in the aftermath of 9/11. The question is as I see it is how do you define terrorism, less controversy exists with respect to the “forms and manifestations” in which it takes place and how to separate the “forms and manifestations”, however I am sure they are well documented by the UN“war against terrorism” files.
Internal security problems in South Asia and their ramifications for regional security have been influenced by a host of international and internal factors. The destabilization of Cold War equations and the haphazard emergence of a variety of conflicting international ‘strategic interests’ in the region, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan, and a pattern shift in the nature of international conflict, have all exacerbated regional tensions. The existence of nuclear weapons has diminished the probabilities of large-scale conventional wars. Consequently, a range of ‘non-standard’, ‘irregular’ ‘low-intensity’ or ‘sub-conventional’ wars has now become the most prevalent manifestation of inter-state confrontations.
In conclusion - it is evident that the stability of South Asia, and the success and failure of initiatives for the resolution of existing conflicts depends on the exploration of new ideologies and strategies that provide concrete and effective alternatives to violence as a means to political ends. These alternatives will have to appeal, equally, to the establishment and to the alienated groupings that currently believe that violence is the only method to secure some relief within the prevailing system. I believe that a lot of these States that come under the umbrella of partly Failed States, (for the want of a better word) most have a tribal and religious influence and that conflict has gone on for centuries without resolve and I can’t see the answer in the short to long term. I also believe that the region’s future stability will depend on the effort of the region to produce a code of conduct.
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