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Q #SMJ Company produce wheat bags, the following data for 8 quarters: Quarters | Demand | 1 | 64 | 2 | 71 | 3 | 58 | 4 | 32 | 5 | 46 | 6 | 78 | 7 | 81 | 8 | 66 | 9 | |

(A): find 3 period and 4 period moving average for given data by comparing both averages and interpret which average is best for the company? Quarters | Demand | Moving average 3 quarters | Moving average 4 quarters | 1 | 64 | | | 2 | 71 | | | 3 | 58 | 63 | | 4 | 32 | 45 | 63 | 5 | 46 | 43 | 45 | 6 | 78 | 43 | 43 | 7 | 81 | 88 | 43 | 8 | 66 | 72 | 88 |

Interpretation: while using movinf average method, 3 quarters Moving average is more closest and accurate for company.

(B): Mr. Gullu wants to go for weighted average, discussing with hire-up’s management following weights are decided: 0.17, 0.80, 0.47
Calculate weighted moving average for 3 and 4 periods. Quarters | Demand | Weighted Moving average 3 quarters | Weighted Moving average 4 quarters | 1 | 64 | | | 2 | 71 | | | 3 | 58 | 64 | | 4 | 32 | 53 | 56 | 5 | 46 | 45 | 52 | 6 | 78 | 52 | 54 | 7 | 81 | 68 | 59 | 8 | 66 | 75 | 68 |

(C): Haji sahib, the owner of the company is not satisfied with previous two forecasting methods, so he wants to try exponential smoothing model to get an accurate forecast. There are two α to go with exponential smoothing model. The management using α=0.20 (Forecasted Q3=72) α=0.45 (Forecasted=70) . Quarters | Demand | Exponential smoothing model α=0.20 | Exponential smoothing model α=0.50 | 1 | 64 | | | 2 | 71 | | | 3 | 58 | 72 (given) | | 4 | 32 | 69 | | 5 | 46 | 61 | 70 (given) | 6 | 78 | 58 | 58 | 7 | 81 | 62 | 68 | 8 | 66 | 66 | 74 | 9 | | 63 | 70 |

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