...Decision making: intuition vs ability Some people have an advantage in decision making but it does not mean that they are talented. Special management theories and experience are mainly important. However, having knowledge is not enough. Great leader must be able to apply knowledge in business and life. Ahmed Sharawy (2013) pondered about reasons of advantages some people to another in making decisions. He claimed that be smart in decision making does not mean be special and extraordinary but be well developed and skilled. According to his article, in addition to respectable theories good leader must study on his own mistakes and failures to be enough experienced and be able to turn decision making into spontaneous process, excluding using intuition only. Another important point is that when probabilities get complicated, choosing the best decision becomes to be a difficult process and outcomes can be irrational. In such situations, regression models lead to more direct solutions. However, such models make decision making process absolutely systematic, reducing creativity. Author also describes “prospect theory”, according to which people look for more risks under negative effects and try to avoid it when they are positive. Moreover, he writes that businessmen must check their decisions before acting them. Sharawy describes research, which shown that decision makers sometimes deteriorating their performance and it is important to match decision making with groups...
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...Rational Decision Making Model Definition: A rational decision making model provides a structured and sequenced approach to decision making. Using such an approach can help to ensure discipline and consistency is built into your decision making process. As the word rational suggests, this approach brings logic and order to decision making. Our rational decision making model consists of a series of steps, beginning with problem/opportunity identification, and ending with actions to be taken on decisions made. According to Ohio State University management professor, Paul C. Nutt, we only get about 50% of our decisions in the workplace right! Half the time they are wrong, so there is clearly plenty of scope to improve on our decision making processes Characteristics of rational decision making: Choosing rationally is often characterized by the following: * Decision making will follow a process or orderly path from problem to solution. * There is a single best or optimal outcome. Rational decisions seek to optimize or maximize utility. * The chosen solution will be in agreement with the preferences and beliefs of the decision maker. * The rational choice will satisfy conditions of logical consistency and deductive completeness. * Decision making will be objective, unbiased and based on facts. * Information is gathered for analysis during the decision making process. * Future consequences are considered for each decision alternative. * Structured questions...
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...Utilizing Rational and Perception Decision-Making A decision could lead us to satisfactory outcomes or, unfortunately a disastrous situation. Especially in the world of business, the complexity and uncertainty of the environment make the process of decision-making very significant in the execution of management. Top managers may differ in style in having decision-making. Some tend to rely on a rational decision making approach while some tend to rely on perceptual decision-making. Some may argue that decision-making is about perception rather than rational, therefore, managers should concentrate on perception decision-making. Instead, these two methods have a completely different process and doctrine. Therefore, due to distinct circumstances, managers should decide which one is more appropriate or even combining the two kind of style to make a wise decision. The following essay will first demonstrate the advantages and disadvantages of both rational and perception decision-making style, then try to examine how they can be combined to optimize the outcome. According to Mintzberg and Wesley (2001), the process of rational decision-making begins with defining the environment, followed by diagnosing the situation, then designing possible alternatives for settlement and finally selecting the optimal solution to undertake. This process emphasizes on planning and analyzing based on known facts. In other words, to begin, managers should first undertake market research in order to...
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...London 2012, a rational economic decision? When looking at whether or not hosting the Olympics was a rational economic decision, this can be related to the basic economic problem whereby we have infinite wants but only finite resources. By choosing to host the London Olympics we would have to cut our spending on other sectors of the economy as large amounts of money would needed to be invested, estimated to be £9.9bn. To decide whether it was a good decision to host them we need to know what the next best thing we could have done with the money is, the opportunity cost. With the estimated cost of the Olympics being £.9.9bn, there is a considerable amount of other things that the money could have been spent on. For example, we could have purchased roughly 120 Cristiano Ronaldo’s which might have resulted in us actually winning a football tournament. An issue which has come up in the news a lot recently has been the shortage of helicopters in Iraq, instead of hosting the Olympics we could have purchased 440 new chinook helicopters. Alternatively, we could have funded the country’s A&E’s hospitals for 5 years, many may argue this may have been more helpful to the country than hosting the Olympics. However there are many benefits to hosting the Olympics. For example, massive amounts of money will be being put into the economy via tourists and this will lead to an increase in economic growth. The building of the stadiums for the Olympics will also lead to many...
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...Todd’s worst fear is that his life has no meaning, and therefore, he has no verse to contribute. For example, after the first day of class, Todd writes “Carpe Diem” on his paper, dreaming of what it would be like if he, too, could contribute a verse and be great like those in the picture. His insecurity gets the better of him, though, and he throws out the paper believing he has nothing to contribute. Later, in class, after being asked to write a poem, Todd tells Keating he never completed the assignment after he spent many hours writing and revising his poem only to have thrown it away before class. This is a prime example of Todd’s struggle between romanticism and realism, where Todd begins dreaming of future possibilities and ways of expressing himself only to have his realistic expectations crash down on him and diminish his thoughts of potential greatness. Keating sees through Todd’s fear and first makes him yawp, and later makes him say whatever comes to mind. This is the beginning of the change in Todd. “I close my eyes and this image floats beside me The sweaty-toothed madman with a stare that pounds my brains His hands reach out and choke me And all the time he’s mumbling Truth, like a blanket that always leaves your feet cold. You push it, stretch it, it will never be enough Kick it beat it, it will never cover any of us. From the moment we enter crying, to the moment we leave dying, it will just cover your face as you wail and cry and scream.” In this...
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...ECONOMICS COURSE CODE : ECN 703 REG NO: 15491119 NAME: GODWIN OMAGU QUESTION: Given the 'Rational Expectations Theory' a short run tradeoff between the price level and unemployment can only exist if the economy agent can distinguish arbitrary from real shock. Discuss Rational Expectations Theory What is the 'Rational Expectations Theory' The rational expectations theory is an economic idea that the people in the economy make choices based on their rational outlook, available information and past experiences. The theory suggests that the current expectations in the economy are equivalent to what the future state of the economy will be. This contrasts the idea that government policy influences the decisions of people in the economy. BREAKING DOWN 'Rational Expectations Theory' The idea is that rational expectations of the players in an economy will partially affect what happens to the economy in the future. If a company believes that the price for its product will be higher in the future, it will stop or slow production until the price rises. Because the company weakens supply while demand stays the same, price will increase. In sum, the producer believes that the price will rise in the future, makes a rational decision to slow production and this decision partially affects what happens in the future. "Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off under Adaptive Expectation and under Rational Expectation"? When agents in economy have adaptive expectations they predict future in the basis...
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...the Training Information Management System. In this diagram, we see that the central process, which is the TIMS, will interact with six entities, which include the corporate client, the training administrator, the instructor, the student, the course, and the accounting system. Moreover, the interaction among these entities will involve six different data flows. The corporate client will be provided a training summary. The training administrator will receive training reports and will supply schedule decisions. The instructor will supply completion data and receive a class roster and course assignments. The accounting system will receive data regarding accounting. The course will receive course data from and supplied data back to the system. The student will request courses. When their request is processed, they will receive a confirmation and an invoice. The student can then submit a payment. Level 0 Diagram The training administrator will submit schedule decisions which are processed by the manage course scheduling process. The course management scheduling process will supply information about the course offered. This information might include course times, schedules, descriptions and so forth. The manage course scheduling process will also receive information from the courses. The Manage Course Scheduling process stores data in the training data database and retrieves it form there when it needs to use it again. The Manage Course Scheduling process provides...
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...1. Psychological Egoism All forms of egoism require explication of “self-interest” (or “welfare” or “well-being”). There are two main theories. Preference or desire accounts identify self-interest with the satisfaction of one's desires. Often, and most plausibly, these desires are restricted to self-regarding desires. What makes a desire self-regarding is controversial, but there are clear cases and counter-cases: a desire for my own pleasure is self-regarding; a desire for the welfare of others is not. Objective accounts identify self-interest with the possession of states (such as virtue or knowledge) that are valued independently of whether they are desired. Hedonism, which identifies self-interest with pleasure, is either a preference or an objective account, according to whether what counts as pleasure is determined by one's desires. Psychological egoism claims that each person has but one ultimate aim: her own welfare. This allows for action that fails to maximize perceived self-interest, but rules out the sort of behavior psychological egoists like to target — such as altruistic behavior or motivation by thoughts of duty alone. It allows for weakness of will, since in weakness of will cases I am still aiming at my own welfare; I am weak in that I do not act as I aim. And it allows for aiming at things other than one's welfare, such as helping others, where these things are a means to one's welfare. Psychological egoism is supported by our frequent observation of...
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...finders for the sensors and various motors for the effectors. A software agent has encoded bit strings as its percepts and actions. A generic agent is diagrammed in Figure 2.1. Our aim in this book is to design agents that do a good job of acting on their environment. First, we will be a little more precise about what we mean by a good job. Then we will talk about different designs for successful agents—filling in the question mark in Figure 2.1. We discuss some of the general principles used in the design of agents throughout the book, chief among which is the principle that agents should know things. Finally, we show how to couple an agent to an environment and describe several kinds of environments. 2.2 HOW AGENTS SHOULD ACT RATIONAL AGENT A rational agent is one that does the right thing. Obviously, this is better than doing the wrong thing, but what does it mean? As a first approximation, we will say that the right action is the one that will cause the agent to be most successful. That leaves us with the problem of deciding how and when to evaluate the agent’s success. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig, c 1995 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 31 32 Chapter 2. Intelligent Agents sensors percepts environment actions ? agent effectors Figure 2.1 Agents interact with environments through sensors and effectors....
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...Six Facets of Understanding Andrew Maio SED-544 Dr. Heard Six Facets: Explanation is the first Facet. “Explanation is defined as sophisticated and apt theories and illustrations, which provide knowledgeable and justified accounts of events, actions, and idea” (Wiggins & McTighe, 2005). Activity 1: Students will use red and black checkers, to use to understand positive and negative integers. Students will use the checkers to help them visually see how many positive or negative checkers when performing problems. Activity2: Students will create a picture on a piece of graph paper in quadrant one the students will then rotate the picture 180 degrees. Activity 3: Student will use graphs to answer questions on a work sheet. Interpretation is the second Facet. “Interpretation is defined as interpretations, narratives, and translations that provide meaning” (Wiggins & McTighe, 2005). The goal is to find the meaning of readings, activities and other types of media. Interpretation can leads to gray area. There is not definite right or wrong answer. Activity 1: This activity is works with PEMDAS and why it is important. Students will receive a work sheet with math equation. There will be multiple-choice answers. The student will have to figure out which answer correctly goes with PEMDAS. Activity 2: Students will interpret graphs to calculate future results of student growth in Rochester City school district....
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...Professional Presence and Influence Caroline Lambert Western Governors University Professional Presence and Influence A. Professional Presence Discovery of a person’s authentic self and the impact on health and healing is as unique as our own fingerprints. The lifelong journey that reveals our true authenticity establishes who we are as humans and how we relate to others. My professional presence as a nurse is guided by my own distinctive life experiences. I have learned more from my numerous personal failures than I have from my triumphs. By taking time for introspection along my personal life journey, I understand what drives me and ignites my true passion. To me, nursing is considerably more than a profession—it is, in essence, a calling. I chose nursing to make a genuine difference in people’s lives and discovered along my path that nursing has profoundly impacted me as a human being. I believe that you must persevere through life’s trials and tribulations to attain your authenticity. To be an impactful leader in your life’s profession, you must understand the many and subtle nuances of the self. This self-awareness guides your professional presence as a human caring for your patients in a touching human way. Your everyday life experiences influence who you become in the future. Once you discover what inspires your soul, and you are expressing your truest self, your gifts of influence and guiding presence will shine through...
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...Mathematics Classes 9-10 Chapter One Real Number Mathematics is originated from the process of expressing quantities in symbols or numbers. The history of numbers is as ancient as the history of human civilization. Greek Philosopher Aristotle According to the formal inauguration of mathematics occurs in the practice of mathematics by the sect of priest in ancient Egypt. So, the number based mathematics is the creation of about two thousand years before the birth of Christ. After that, moving from many nations and civilization, numbers and principles of numbers have gained an universal form at present. The mathematicians in India first introduce zero (0) and 10 based place value system for counting natural numbers, which is considered a milestone in describing numbers. Chinese and Indian mathematicians extended the idea zero, real numbers, negative number, integer and fractional numbers which the Arabian mathematicians accepted in the middle age. But the credit of expressing number through decimal fraction is awarded to the Muslim Mathematicians. Again they introduce first the irrational numbers in square root form as a solution of the quadratic equation in algebra in the 11th century. According to the historians, very near to 50 BC the Greek Philosophers also felt the necessity of irrational number for drawing geometric figures, especially for the square root of 2. In the 19th century European Mathematicians gave the real numbers a complete shape...
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...Chapter 6 Commodity Forwards and Futures Question 6.1. The spot price of a widget is $70.00. With a continuously compounded annual risk-free rate of 5%, we can calculate the annualized lease rates according to the formula: F0,T = S0 × e(r−δl )×T ⇔ F0,T S0 = e(r−δl )×T S0 = (r − δl ) × T F0,T 1 ln T S0 ⇔ ln F0,T ⇔ δl = r − Time to expiration Forward price Annualized lease rate 3 months $70.70 0.0101987 6 months $71.41 0.0101147 9 months $72.13 0.0100336 12 months $72.86 0.0099555 The lease rate is less than the risk-free interest rate. The forward curve is upward sloping, thus the prices of exercise 6.1. are an example of contango. Question 6.2. The spot price of oil is $32.00 per barrel. With a continuously compounded annual risk-free rate of 2%, we can again calculate the lease rate according to the formula: δl = r − F0,T 1 ln T S0 Time to expiration Forward price Annualized lease rate 3 months $31.37 0.0995355 6 months $30.75 0.0996918 9 months $30.14 0.0998436 12 months $29.54 0.0999906 80 Chapter 6 Commodity Forwards and Futures The lease rate is higher than the risk-free interest rate. The forward curve is downward sloping, thus the prices of exercise 6.2. are an example of backwardation. Question 6.3. The question asks us to find the lease rate such that F0,T = S0 . We take our pricing formula, F0,T = S0 × e(r−δl )×T , and immediately see that the sought equality is established if e(r−δl )×T = 1, which is guaranteed for any T > 0 if and only if...
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...Explain the five steps for solving rational equations. Can any of these steps be eliminated? Can the order of these steps be changed? Would you add any steps to make rational equations easier to complete or understand? - Find the LCD of the terms in the equation. - Multiply each side of the equation by the LCD. - Simplify each term. - Solve the resulting equation. - Check each answer in the given equation. Any value that makes a denominator equal 0 should be rejected because it is an extraneous solution. • You can eliminate the “check your answer” step, but it’s not recommended, because you would want to know if the answer you come up with is the correct answer. • Yes. You can simplify each term and then multiply each side by the LCD. • I will not add any steps to make the equations easier. Do all rational equations have a single solution? Why is that so? • No. Not all rational equations have a single solution. f(x) = (x² + 4x + 1)/(x^8 + 2) Then, we can get a lot of possible solutions where x can be any real value What constitutes a rational expression? How would you explain this concept to someone unfamiliar with it? - A rational expression is a fraction whose numerator and/or denominator are polynomials. - A rational expression can be written as PQ , where P and Q are polynomials. A rational expression is defined whenever Q is not equal to zero. Ex: If z = 1, then 5z + 8/z^2 - 2z + 1 = 5(1) + 8/1^2 - 2(1) + 1, or 13/0, which is undefined because division...
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...Psychological egoism is the view that everyone always acts selfishly. It describes human nature as being wholly self-centered and self-motivated. Psychological egoism is different from ethical egoism in their “direction of fit” to the world. Psychological ego-ism is a factual theory. It aims to fit the world. In the world is not how psychological ego-ism says it is because someone acts unselfishly, then something is wrong with psycho-logical egoism. In my opinion this argument is completely wrong and unsound. According to James Rachel, an author of “Elements of Moral Philosophy,” there two main arguments exist against psychological egoism. The first argument can be formulated as such: 1) Everyone always does what they most want to do. 2) If everyone always does what they most want to do, they act selfishly 3) Everyone always acts selfishly. Opponents claim that psychological egoism renders ethics useless. There two cri-ticisms of this argument. First criticism is on premise one: “It is not the case that everyone always does what they most want to do because sometimes people do what they are obligated to do. They are either forced to do it because someone makes them or they do it because they seek the end result of it, such as a visit to the dentist entails.” (J. Rachels p. 70) In his book “Elements of Moral Philosophy” Rachel gives great examples to support this criti-cism: “the soldier who falls on the grenade to save his buddies, the person who runs into the busy...
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