Retail Sales – Australia
Australian retail sales underwhelm again, as expected • Australian retailers continue to eke out small gains with sales up 0.2% in February after a 0.3% gain in January and a flat December. The February result was in line with consensus. That's a weak picture though with trend growth in nominal sales tracking at a 1% annual pace. • The detail was also patchy. Food retail rose 0.3%mth but was basically flat over Q1; clothing retailers saw a 1.4% fall; department stores had a better month but household good retailers registered a second monthly decline suggesting we may be seeing renewed caution/restraint from consumers big ticket discretionary spending. Small ticket categories continue to hold up comparatively well. • The wedge between mining and non-mining states is widening with retail sales down 0.6%mth in NSW and 0.4%mth in Vic – both states having recorded four monthly declines in the last six months. In contrast, Qld and WA continue to record solid 1%+ gains. • Notwithstanding areas of strength – the resource states and some small-ticket discretionary categories – the overall picture remains decidedly soft. Even allowing for the 'extenuating circumstances' affecting retail – online competition in particular - the message appears to be of subdued consumer demand that at the very least has extended the soft Q4 result into 2012 and may even be seeing a further weakening.
Retail sales posted another disappointing month in February, albeit one that was in line with expectations. Total retail sales rose 0.2%mth to be up 2%yr. That followed a 0.3% gain January. While the two months is an improvement on the flat finish to 2011, trend sales growth continues to moderate and is now tracking at just 0.1%mth, an annualised pace of 0.9%yr. With population growth at around 1.5%yr and retail price inflation running at 1.5%yr in trend terms, the pace